Bullish outlook on AmazonShould price fall further to support which was previous resistance before breakout of head and shoulders pattern.
buy at $146 and target $313.
AMZ trade ideas
Potential trend change for the worlds biggest retailer...Amazon has broken it's up channel from the 22 lows, it also peaked above the 21 high for less than 2 weeks, potential bull trap. Jeff Bezos has been selling, he was selling in 2021 also. Consumer discretionary is now down for the year, while the leading sector is utilities up 18%. With all the hype about the magnificent 7, is this contrary indicator now in play?
Amazon.comAmazon.com Announces Second Quarter Results
SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--August 01, 2024--
Amazon.com, Inc.
AMZN
today announced financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2024.
Amazon | Monthly Chart Breakdown (Major Bear Market Confirmed!)Good day my fellow traders, I hope you are having a wonderful week.
Here I have for you a long-term chart for the AMZN stock, it has a pretty interesting story to share... Billionaires are taking profits!
To start, we know all the stocks are highly correlated; What one does, the rest follows.
This is a long-term chart and we can pretty much say that a major correction is underway; a bear-market.
➖ We can see a peak pattern in the form of a rounded top.
We can see a complete breakout of this pattern, just as it happened in late 201.
➖ A major bearish signal comes in the form of a bearish divergence between AMZN and its MACD. This is the monthly timeframe so these signals are not weak.
👉 We are set to experience RED for months...
How will this affect the rest of the market?
Other major stocks are also red and pointing toward months of bearish pressure.
We wait and see how it all goes. But it seems we are about to witness a major "billionaires taking profits" market flush.
Namaste.
Trading Effect on a PortfolioTrading Effect on a Portfolio
When a person decides to join the financial world and buy stocks, commodities, currency, or perhaps even cryptocurrency*, they have to think about the approach they take to their management. There is the option of holding assets until they decide to sell them in months or years, and there is the option to trade them actively. Trading effect reflects how a trader’s actions influence the value of their portfolio.
This FXOpen article explains what the trading effect is and how it serves as a way to quantify a trader’s performance.
What Does Trading Effect Mean?
Trading decisions exert a substantial influence on the performance of a portfolio. What is an effect in stock, forex, commodity trading? The trading effect reflects the outcomes of the choices made by traders as they buy and sell financial assets. Whether one engages in short-term or long-term trading, the consequences of these decisions are palpable.
Short-term traders may experience rapid gains or losses, while long-term traders witness the cumulative effect of their actions over time. Managing trading strategies prudently is imperative to optimising portfolio performance.
Don’t confuse the trading effect with the trade effect, which encompasses the various impacts of trade on economies and industries. It involves the allocation of resources, changes in economic welfare, and the movement of capital and labour. This is not the effect we will focus on in this article.
Types of Effects
Effects can be categorised based on the type of asset or instrument being traded. There could be a stock, forex, commodities, or futures trading effect. The effects are not just positive and negative.
To analyse the impact of trading, traders apply various analytical tools and theories. The Epps effect in trading is one of them. It claims that the correlation between the returns of two different stocks decreases as the length of the interval for which the price changes are measured decreases. This effect is caused by asynchronous trading.
Short-Term vs Long-Term Trading Effects
Trading actions often yield immediate results, reflecting the rapid fluctuations and reactions within the market. The short-term trading effects can be driven by news events, earnings reports, market sentiment, and technical indicators that influence prices over short time frames. For instance, a day trader executing a quick buy or sell based on breaking news experiences immediate gains and losses.
In contrast, long-term trading strategies involve a more deliberate and sustained approach, shaping one’s financial future through careful portfolio management. Long-term trading effects manifest over an extended horizon, reflecting the cumulative impact of strategic decisions.
Risk and Reward in Trading
The risk-reward trade-off is a fundamental concept in trading that involves balancing the potential for profit against the likelihood of loss. Traders often assess the risks and rewards of a trade before executing it.
High-Risk Trading Strategies
High-risk trading strategies may lead to amplified trading effects. For example, using leverage allows traders to control a larger position with a smaller amount of capital. While this may amplify gains, it also magnifies potential losses and can result in margin calls, forcing traders to either inject more capital or close positions at unfavourable prices.
Trading highly volatile and speculative instruments can lead to significant price swings. While this volatility presents opportunities, it also introduces higher levels of risk. In unpredictable markets, sudden and unexpected price movements can also result in rapid losses, especially for traders employing aggressive strategies.
Strategies for Managing Risk
Diversifying across different asset classes and sectors helps spread risk. A well-diversified portfolio may be less susceptible to the negative impact of a single underperforming asset. Implementing stop-loss orders may limit potential losses. Traders determine these levels based on their risk tolerance and analysis of market conditions. They also control the size of each position relative to the total portfolio value, as it helps manage overall risk exposure.
Markets evolve, and different strategies may be more suitable in varying conditions. Traders adapt their approaches based on the prevailing market environment and establish realistic profit targets, ensuring that the potential returns justify the assumed risks.
The Impact of Behavioural Biases
Behavioural biases can significantly impact trading decisions, leading to unintended trading effects.
- Overtrading can lead to a cluttered portfolio and increased risk exposure. Driven by excessive confidence or impulsivity, it may erode gains through transaction costs.
- Loss aversion is a psychological and behavioural bias observed in humans, which refers to the tendency of people to strongly prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains.
- Confirmation bias , favouring information that aligns with existing beliefs, can also lead to suboptimal decision-making. Confirmation bias potentially blinds traders to alternative perspectives and impacts their ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Final Thoughts
Understanding and managing the trading effect is paramount for traders. Regular assessment and comparison of the results you get while trading over different time periods are foundational elements in developing the skills needed to navigate the market dynamics. If you want to continue building your portfolio, you may open an FXOpen account. Explore the TickTrader trading platform to choose between the various asset classes and diversify your portfolio properly.
*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Analysis of Amazon (AMZN) Share Price After Disappointing ReportAnalysis of Amazon (AMZN) Share Price After Disappointing Report
On Thursday, Amazon released its second-quarter report:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $1.26, forecast = $1.03;
→ Gross sales: actual = $147.98 billion, forecast = $148.66 billion.
Amazon’s CFO, Brian Olsavsky, attributed the decline in sales to distractions caused by Trump’s news coverage and the Olympics, suggesting people spent more time reading news and less time shopping on Amazon.
As a result, the sales forecast for the third quarter fell short of expectations, with management estimating between $154 billion and $158.5 billion, while analysts’ average estimate was $158.24 billion.
Investors were disappointed by this news, causing Amazon’s share price to drop approximately 9% on Friday, creating a wide bearish gap. On Monday, the price also opened with a bearish gap and continued to fall, creating a precarious situation.
However, by Monday’s close, the bulls had recovered the early trading losses, and on Tuesday, AMZN showed some stability, staying close to Monday’s closing price.
Does this mean the downward trend (with AMZN’s price now more than 20% below its July all-time high) has run its course?
Today's technical analysis of Amazon’s stock chart provides valuable insights:
→ In late 2023 and early 2024, the price gradually increased within a narrow range along the median of an ascending blue channel, indicating a consensus between buyers and sellers on the stock’s fair value.
→ Good news in early February pushed the price up, accelerating growth towards the upper boundary of the channel, which acted as resistance.
→ Last week’s report had the opposite effect. On the bad news, AMZN’s price fell to the lower boundary of the channel, where it found support. This price action shows the impact of news on deviations from the median, which may still be relevant.
It’s worth noting the importance of breaking psychological levels (indicated by arrows showing false bullish breakouts at $200 and $190). It’s possible that:
→ AMZN’s price will continue to consolidate around the lower boundary of the channel, with former support at $166.66 acting as resistance;
→ We may see a false bearish breakout at the $150 level.
Price forecasts for AMZN have slightly worsened since the report, as we warned on July 26. According to current forecasts by 41 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks, 40 analysts recommend buying AMZN. On average, they predict AMZN’s price will reach $223.60 (about 38% above current levels) over the next 12 months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
amzn has long term support at 130-140Considering the 5 year chart with 45 min trading interval; AMZN has a great supportT 135-140. It is a great support that will not be broken!
AMZN - Selling PUTSMaking a few moves this morning, I like AMZN, do not mind owning so I am selling one put to try to grab a better price here as the market panics.
Sell to Open AUG9 155 Putt @ 3.09
AMAZON Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 080424Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 164/61.80%
Chart time frame : C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the Support
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
Amazon investment Is this a right time to get into position or what?I believe it was a massive pull back after we hit new high,which is normal as n institutional trader,my job is to generate liquidity into position.
Amazon (AMZN)Amazon stock is down 9.7% from its recent highs, and is moving into the correction zone.
Analysts are quite bullish on AMZN heading into the Q2, covering the stock have rated it as a Strong Buy.
Amazon LongAmazon current on Weekly Demand Zone 160 Level
Amazon Qtrly & 6 Month Demand Zone 146 Level
Year -Monthly - Qtrly Trend Up
146-165 all are Buy Zone with 6 Month -12 Month
Expecting 240 Level as Target
$AMZN Had a 20% CorrectionIf you measure the high to move on NASDAQ:AMZN , we actually had a full 20% correction on this stock. These declines are developing into bear market numbers.
Amazon Shares Tumble After Disappointing Third-Quarter OutlookAmazon shares ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) took a significant hit on Friday, dropping over 9% following a mixed second-quarter earnings report and a disappointing forecast for the upcoming quarter. The e-commerce giant reported a revenue miss, causing concerns among investors and leading to a substantial sell-off in its stock.
Second-Quarter Performance
In the second quarter, Amazon's revenue rose 10% year-over-year to $147.98 billion, falling slightly short of the $148.56 billion projected by analysts. Despite this, the company's net income nearly doubled from the previous year, reaching $1.26 per share, surpassing the expected $1.03 per share. This increase in net income highlights Amazon's successful cost-cutting measures, which have strengthened its bottom line.
Third-Quarter Outlook
Amazon's forecast for the third quarter has added to investor concerns. The company expects revenue between $154 billion and $158.5 billion, with the midpoint of $156.25 billion falling short of the consensus estimate of $158.24 billion. This cautious guidance has been attributed to slower sales in Amazon's core retail business and an unpredictable news cycle that has distracted consumers, causing them to delay purchases or abandon their shopping carts.
Market Sentiment and Analyst Reactions
Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky pointed to several factors contributing to the weak forecast, including the upcoming Olympics, the presidential election, and high-profile events such as the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. These distractions have made it challenging to predict consumer behavior accurately.
Despite these challenges, analysts remain optimistic about Amazon's long-term prospects, particularly its cloud computing segment, Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS reported revenue of $26.3 billion in the second quarter, exceeding expectations and demonstrating continued growth. Analysts at JPMorgan and BMO Capital Markets have expressed confidence in AWS's potential, noting that it is well-positioned to benefit from increased cloud adoption and modernization efforts.
Key Technical Indicators and Market Reactions
From a technical perspective, Amazon's stock has exhibited several bearish signals. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the chart leading into the earnings report, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards lower prices. Investors are now closely monitoring key support levels, including $170, $161, $145, and $123, to gauge the stock's next moves.
The broader market has also reacted negatively to Amazon's earnings and guidance, with major indices such as the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 experiencing significant declines. Concerns over weaker economic data, including a disappointing jobs report, have added to market volatility, further impacting investor sentiment.
Conclusion
Amazon's recent performance has highlighted the challenges it faces in its core retail business amidst an unpredictable economic environment. While the company's cloud computing segment continues to show strength, the mixed results and cautious outlook have led to a substantial decline in its stock price. Investors and analysts will be watching closely to see how Amazon navigates these challenges and whether it can maintain its growth trajectory in the coming quarters.
Overall, the current market conditions and Amazon's performance underscore the importance of monitoring both fundamental and technical indicators to make informed investment decisions. As the company continues to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and economic conditions, its ability to leverage its strengths and address its weaknesses will be crucial in determining its future success.
Amazon's Uptrend BrokenThe AMZN stock started the week green, looking pretty good, but it is set to close on a very strong bearish note...
Good Friday my dear friends, it seems the start of the bear-market is here for stocks .
➖ This week marks the fourth week where AMZN closes red. And interestingly enough, the past month of bearish action produced the strongest red candles since mid-2022.
Let's keep this one simple:
👉 Amazon is set to move much lower, hitting maybe 130 in a matter of weeks and reaching as low as ~100 in several months.
The entire market is intricately connected; what one does, the rest tends to follow.
This is a true statement and can be confirmed by looking at other stocks.
TSLA, NVDA, GOOG and the rest, are also set to crash.
A 20% drop within 4 weeks is already pretty strong, but you can be sure that this is only the beginning... Amazon is set to continue dropping more and more and more.
Namaste.
BEAR CYCLICAL MARKET / AUG 2024 TO JAN 2025Elections, Wars on the horizon, Covid Part 2, and Ichimoku signals, within a cyclical pattern, combined with the rising volume average selloff shows a bear market till Jan 2025. Tight your belts. Short sellers will be very happy.
amzn bull put spreadI LOVE The selling. AND THIS IDEA is over earnings. I DO PLAN on it being a slightly volatile spread, but with any buying or resting, theta should take over and the 200 SMA will slowly creep up.
This has MANY check marks and should work nicely
AMZN June 17, 2024: A Buy Point at A New HighAt the close of June 16, 2024, NASDAQ:AMZN was at a new high entering $2T club.
I am opening a new position here with the target price of $230 (20% from the base)
AMZN: Post Earnings UpdateAMZN posted earnings this evening and has fallen close to the 1.618 fib retracement of 168. The lower monthly bollinger band shows support around 170, but that can change quickly if the entire market starts to ramp up selling.
PT1 is 166, PT2 161
AMAZON PUTS LONG TERM*I am in no way a financial advisor and you should always do your own due diligence before placing any trade. Do not trade what you are not comfortable with losing. No trade is guaranteed.
Prices are at a high and price needs to correct massively. Price should fall to strong support area and buyers should be able to pick their momentum back up in strong support area. Use proper risk management.
Amazon JungleWas waiting to see if the blue curve holds in this project in order to decide to post these simulated projections that take into account potential pivot points, reversals, or zones for support/resistance and BREAKOUTS... in either direction, even though I am slightly bullish biased on this one.
I have this scenario in mind where this could find support somewhere at the white or continuing on the blue or towards the red for a more decisive push in case the Earnings don't upset the whole harmony in this picture.
If everything goes to pieces will be having an eye for the possibility of the blue curve becoming resistance with a retest.
Other lower probability scenarios are some impact zones around the green and purple rectangles. If the prices reaches the top curves it would be only as a reference to see the price action around them for potential validation of the simulation.
Earnings Expectation For July 30th Investors, mark your calendars! A mix of high-profile companies are set to report their quarterly results today. Let's take a quick dive into what's expected:
Apple (AAPL 🍏)
The tech giant is anticipated to report an EPS of 1.20 and a revenue of 88.90B. With a historical beat rate of 80%, can Apple continue to exceed market expectations?
Microsoft (MSFT 🖥️)
Expected to post an EPS of 2.35 and a revenue of 56.60B, all eyes are on Microsoft as they hold an impressive 85% beat rate. Will they keep up the momentum?
Amazon (AMZN 📦)
Amazon is set to announce an EPS of 0.52 and a revenue of 110.20B. With a beat rate of 75%, investors are keen to see if Amazon can surpass these forecasts.
Alphabet (GOOGL 🌐)
The search engine leader is projected to deliver an EPS of 1.50 and a revenue of 63.50B. Holding a 78% beat rate, will Alphabet hit the mark?
🔍 As these giants reveal their financial health, it's not just about the numbers but also the story they tell about the consumer market and economic trends. Keep your portfolios ready for any surprises!
#EarningsSeason #StockMarket #InvestmentInsights
