APC trade ideas
Apple (AAPL) Share Price Drops Over 7% in Two DaysApple (AAPL) Share Price Drops Over 7% in Two Days
As previously reported, AAPL shares had their worst January since 2008, but the challenges for investors have continued. The Apple (AAPL) stock chart shows that:
- Yesterday, the price dropped below $218 during trading—the lowest level since September last year.
- Compared to Friday’s closing price, the decline over the first two days of this week amounted to approximately 7.7%.
Why Has AAPL Stock Fallen?
Yesterday, we noted that bearish sentiment was prevailing in the stock market, leading the Nasdaq 100 index into correction territory. Market conditions were further dampened by news that Apple had delayed the release of an AI-powered update for its digital assistant, Siri 2.0, increasing selling pressure.
What Could Happen Next?
Technical Analysis of Apple (AAPL) Stock
Key price reversals, marked with red dots, outline a downward channel (shown in red). The median line, which previously acted as support (indicated by an arrow), has now been broken, suggesting that bears may expect it to act as resistance going forward.
From a bullish perspective, the lower boundary of the red channel, reinforced by the September low around $214, could serve as an area where selling pressure might ease—if AAPL continues to decline.
AAPL Share Price Forecast
According to TipRanks:
- 18 out of 33 surveyed analysts recommend buying AAPL stock.
- The average 12-month price target for AAPL is $251.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
APPLE Buy opportunity on the 1W MA50.Apple Inc. (AAPL) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up since the January 03 2023 bottom and in the past 3 months (December 26 2024) has been forming the latest Bearish Leg. On Tuesday this Leg broke below its 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time in 10 months (since May 08 2024), which is the strongest buy signal since the April 19 2024 Higher Low bottom of the Channel Up.
As you can see, even the 1D RSI pattern is similar with the one that made the October 26 2023 1W MA50 test. That was also on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the respective previous Low.
As a result, it is now highly likely to see a rebound, especially if the 1W candle closes above the 1W MA50, to test the previous High and 1.0 Fib at $260, like the December 14 2023 High did.
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$AAPL Ready to Explode? Harmonic Pattern and OversoldAlright, folks, it looks like Apple stock has just nailed one of those harmonic patterns, and on top of that, the RSI is screaming oversold, hitting a rock-bottom 26—the lowest it’s been in a year! With the stock chilling and holding steady at these current price levels, it’s boosting the odds of a sweet upward price reversal coming our way.
Is Apple's Empire Built on Sand?Apple Inc., a tech titan valued at over $2 trillion, has built its empire on innovation and ruthless efficiency. Yet, beneath this dominance lies a startling vulnerability: an overreliance on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) for its cutting-edge chips. This dependence on a single supplier in a geopolitically sensitive region exposes Apple to profound risks. While Apple’s strategy has fueled its meteoric rise, it has also concentrated its fate in one precarious basket—Taiwan. As the world watches, the question looms: what happens if that basket breaks?
Taiwan’s uncertain future under China’s shadow amplifies these risks. If China moves to annex Taiwan, TSMC’s operations could halt overnight, crippling Apple’s ability to produce its devices. Apple’s failure to diversify its supplier base left its trillion-dollar empire on a fragile foundation. Meanwhile, TSMC’s attempts to hedge by opening U.S. factories introduce new complications. If Taiwan falls, the U.S. could seize these assets, potentially handing them to competitors like Intel. This raises unsettling questions: Who truly controls the future of these factories? And what becomes of TSMC’s investments if they fuel a rival’s ascent?
Apple’s predicament is a microcosm of a global tech industry tethered to concentrated semiconductor production. Efforts to shift manufacturing to India or Vietnam pale against China’s scale, while U.S. regulatory scrutiny—like the Department of Justice’s probe into Apple’s market dominance—adds further pressure. The U.S. CHIPS Act seeks to revive domestic manufacturing, but Apple’s grip on TSMC muddies the path forward. The stakes are clear: resilience must now trump efficiency, or the entire ecosystem risks collapse.
As Apple stands at this crossroads, the question echoes: Can it forge a more adaptable future, or will its empire crumble under the weight of its design? The answer may not only redefine Apple but also reshape the global balance of tech and power. What would it mean for us all if the chips—both literal and figurative—stopped falling into place?
AAPL Trade PlanHere’s a potential trade setup for AAPL based on key levels:
📌 Entry Points: 229 / 219 / 208 (Scaling in)
🎯 Profit Targets: 236 / 243 / 256 (Scaling out)
💡 Strategy:
If AAPL holds above 229, consider entering with a first position.
If it drops to 219, it could be a good second entry.
A dip to 208 might be a strong buy zone.
Take profits gradually at 236, 243, and 256 to lock in gains.
🚨 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly! 📊✨
What do you think? 🚀
Downtrend Forming in Apple?Apple held up better than many large technology stocks last week, but traders may still see downside risk in the smartphone giant.
The first pattern on today’s chart is a potential falling channel since December 26. Continuation of that trend may point toward new lows under $210.
Second, AAPL bottomed at $219.71 in the fourth quarter. The previous quarter’s low was $196. Given weakness in the broader market, could dip-buyers wait for tests of those longer-term levels?
Third, the stock appears to be stalling at its 50- and 100-day simple moving averages. That may reflect a weakening long-term trend.
Next, MACD is falling. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is also at risk of slipping below the 21-day EMA. Those points may reflect weakness in the shorter term.
Finally, AAPL is one of the most active underliers in the options market. (It’s averaged more than 900,000 contracts per day in the last month, according to TradeStation data.) That could make some traders look to position for moves with calls and puts.
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Short Term Up For Apple. AAPLBetting on a triple drive formation here, while stock price is correcting from the last drop. None of the technical indicators have turned, yet, although they appear to be about to. This is a discretionary idea with increased risk, as there is no signal until an indicator produces one.
Elliott Wave View: Apple (AAPL) Should See Further Downside WithApple (ticker: NASDAQ:AAPL ) shows incomplete bearish sequence from 12.26.2024 peak and looking for further downside. Down from 12.26.2024 peak, wave ((A)) ended at 218.06 and wave ((B)) ended at 250. Wave ((C)) lower is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((B)), wave (1) ended at 230.2 and wave (2) ended at 244.03 as the 30 minutes chart below shows.
Wave (3) is in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 229.23 Rally in wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 237.86, wave ((b)) ended at 233.33, and wave ((c)) ended at 241.36 which completed wave 2. The stock has resumed lower in wave 3 lower. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 235.25 and wave ((ii)) ended at 238.47. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 224.22 and wave ((iv)) rally ended at 228.66. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 217.46 which completed wave 3 in higher degree. Rally in wave 4 ended at 223.28. Expect wave 5 to end soon which should complete wave (3) in higher degree. Then it should rally in wave (4) to correct cycle from 3.3.2025 peak before it resumes lower. Near term, as far as pivot at 241.36 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside.
AAPL Reversal Zone & Trade SetupReversal Zone Explanation
* AAPL has recently bounced off a demand zone around $230-$232, aligning with the highest negative NETGEX/PUT Support.
* If buyers sustain momentum above $236-$240, we could see a push towards resistance levels near $245-$250.
* On the downside, a break below $230 could trigger further declines toward $225-$220, where the next major support lies.
My Thoughts
* The stock has shown early signs of a short-term reversal after forming a Break of Structure (BOS).
* The MACD is turning bullish with a potential crossover, supporting further upside.
* Stochastic RSI is climbing from oversold conditions, indicating momentum could continue higher.
Suggested Trade
Bullish Case
* Entry: $236-$238 (on confirmation of strength)
* Target 1: $245
* Target 2: $250
* Stop-loss: Below $230
Bearish Case (if rejected at $240-$245)
* Entry: $240-$242
* Target 1: $232
* Target 2: $225
* Stop-loss: Above $246
Options Recommendation
* Call Option (Bullish Setup)
* Strike: $240
* Expiration: March 15
* Type: ITM/ATM Call
* Rationale: Strong bounce from support and bullish momentum confirmation.
* Put Option (Bearish Setup)
* Strike: $230
* Expiration: March 15
* Type: ITM/ATM Put
* Rationale: If price fails to hold above $240 and breaks below $230, puts could gain value.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading stocks and options involves risk, and you should conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
$AAPL at major support finallyNASDAQ:AAPL is at major support, I expect a decent bounce from here into triangle formation. Not financial advice, but I grabbed April OpEx calls.
APPL I'll take your iphone at $196 As my last prediction came to be, I have at this moment 25/0 on this boxing ring so far.
2 Possible outcomes.
- Price keeps moving down from where it is to the $196 and completes the movement to the order block that created the movement to the upside.
-It bounces back to the $226 area to touch resistance, liquidate pending orders, and move down to the $196.
This is not a depression people. This is a true correction of market prices.
AAPL Approaching Key Levels – Will This Uptrend Hold?Technical Analysis (TA) for Trading:
* Current Price Action: AAPL is trading around $238.54, showing a strong rebound from the prior reversal zone near $229 - $234. It has broken out of a descending trendline and is now consolidating near $239, a key resistance level.
* Support Levels:
* $234.02 – Key support aligned with prior rejection zones.
* $229.20 – Strong demand zone where buyers stepped in previously.
* Resistance Levels:
* $244.02 – Immediate resistance where price previously struggled.
* $251.08 – Higher resistance, aligning with historical price action.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bullish momentum but showing slight exhaustion.
* Stochastic RSI: High but beginning to cool off, suggesting consolidation before a breakout or pullback.
* Volume: Increased buying pressure supports the breakout but needs continuation to sustain.
* Price Outlook:
* If AAPL holds above $238, it can attempt a move toward $244 - $250.
* A drop below $234 could lead to further downside toward $229.
GEX & Options Analysis for Trading:
* Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights:
* Highest Positive GEX / Call Resistance: $250 – A significant resistance zone where call positions may slow the uptrend.
* 2nd Call Wall: $260 – Additional call resistance if momentum sustains.
* Put Support at $225 – Major downside support from options positioning.
* Additional Put Walls at $220 and $230 – Lower levels that could trigger dealer hedging if broken.
* IV & Market Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 57.3 – Moderate volatility, making options reasonably priced.
* IVx Avg: 37.6, showing a slightly lower-than-average implied volatility.
* Options Sentiment: Puts at 18.6%, suggesting bullish sentiment overall.
Trading Strategy:
* Bullish Scenario:
* Entry near $238 - $240 with a target at $244 - $250.
* Stop-loss at $234.
* Bearish Scenario:
* If rejected at $240, a short position targeting $234 - $230 with a stop at $242.
Final Thoughts:
AAPL is holding a bullish structure after breaking out of a key trendline, but it needs to clear $244 to confirm a continuation. Options data suggests $250 is a critical gamma resistance. Watch for volume and momentum signals to confirm direction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research before trading.
AAPLAAPL price is in the correction period. If the price cannot break through the 258.56 level, it is expected that the price will drop. Consider selling the red zone.
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>>GooD Luck 😊
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APPLE Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the APPLE next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 245.60
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 251.37
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 235.33
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
APPLE- bear spread because Grandpa Buffett is taking profitsApple has 33 PE but is growing 8-10% per year and just laid off people because of potential TRUMP tariff issues.
RSI is high enough me to take a bear put spread on. credit call spread should work just as well.
any deep dips in apple below the 200 moving averages are worth buying in my opnion with unlevered shares.
analysts expect apple to earn 20.85 by 2031, and will make apple worth 400-500 in future.
but for now, its worth a bear spread for me. market is looking like a sellers market in short term. if Im wrong, i have defined risk by using the spread.
Risk On And Money Rotating?There is a lot of indication that risk could be back on in greater markets. Tech is still very weak but, I think there is a possibility that money is rotating out of tech and into other sectors. I talked about healthcare, some utilities and minerals in other videos.
APPLE, will we see 200$ again ?Hello traders, Hope you're doing great. What are your thoughts about NASDAQ:AAPL ?
for upcoming weeks, I expect an upward correction at first and after that I expect a SELL OFF situation in the market that causes a huge drop in stock market, my first Target is 200$.
This post will be Updated.
Trade Safe and have a great week.
Apple Wave Analysis – 13 March 2025
- Apple broke support area
- Likely to fall to support level 200.00
Apple recently broke the support area between the strong support level 220.00 (which has been reversing the price from October) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of upward impulse from August.
The breakout of this support area accelerated the active impulse wave 3 of the sharp downward impulse wave (C) from February.
Apple can be expected to fall to the next round support level 200.00 – which is the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (C).
AAPL short on reboundWhile I've been putting up shorts for Nasdaq, Meta, Google, and Amzn, I just realized that I did not do it for AAPL. So here's the wave counts update. While the direction is down, it does not mean to short it now because this wave 3 down is now approximately equals to wave 1 (around $40). An extension of 1.618 will give us another $24 down move but I CANNOT be certain if there would be any corrective wave up making this current wave 3 a 5-waves movement.
So my suggestion is to wait for rebound and short.
