CBK trade ideas
UniCredit and Commerzbank: The Challenge of the European Megaban
UniCredit SPA (Ticker AT: CRDI.IT) has taken a significant step by acquiring a 9% stake in Commerzbank AG (CBK.GE), sparking speculation about a possible merger between the two European giants. This move marks a milestone in UniCredit's ambition to consolidate its presence in the European banking market. Commerzbank’s shares have risen by more than 18% since the news, reflecting market optimism about a potential consolidation.
Key Obstacles to the Merger:
1. Resistance from the German Government: The German state, which holds a 12% stake in Commerzbank, might insist on maintaining a national listing and a supervisory board in Germany due to the bank's strategic importance to the German economy.
2. German Unions: Unions in Germany may strongly oppose the merger, concerned about potential layoffs and the shift of power from Frankfurt to Milan.
3. Deutsche Bank's Interest: There is a possibility that Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest bank, could revive its interest in Commerzbank, further complicating the situation.
4. Shareholder Concerns: UniCredit's shareholders, who have seen a 230% increase in their earnings over the past three years, may fear that a merger could impact profitability, even though UniCredit has promised to maintain a 15% return on investment.
Despite these challenges, UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel is determined to push forward with his ambitious consolidation plans, which could significantly transform the banking sector in Europe.
Technical Analysis:
Looking at the chart, Commerzbank AG experienced a slowdown in its rise at the end of May, reaching €15,825. After some attempts to recover at the end of July, the stock showed an upward gap, potentially signaling another attempt to reach its historical highs. Meanwhile, UniCredit had a relatively consistent rise until July, reaching €39,330, when its price fell, but it is in the process of recovering towards its highs with current support at €35,615.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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1:10 RR | Commerzbank | London SessionThe labels that are used are ment to draft and measure context to the price action involved and contain no rules-engaged notebook + applied-set up indicators, but an avoiding interference to use other rules-engaged software to enhance in general, regarding to the watchlist and trade plan that is relevant to trade-on
Key indicators on Trade Set Up in general;
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set Up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
# TREND | TIME FRAME CONDUCTIVE | 4 Hour Time Frame
- General Trend
- Measurement on Session
- HL & HH | Uptrend
* Signpost | High Probalility Move(High Volume)
* Support & Resistance
* Trade Area | Focus & Motion ahead
# POSITION & Risk Reward | 1 Hour Time Frame
- Measurement on Session
* Retracement
* 1:10 RR | Partial | Range
* Time Scale
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand, specifics are essential like applied;
* Buy Push Set Up
* Trail Stop & Take Profit / aim big(Price action moves slow)
* Directional Movement
* High probalility move(High Volume)
CBK is short of ((E)) to make this expanding flat completedSeems like CBK is forming another correction in cycle
where now it's short of ((E)) to make this expanding flat completed.
When the market opens I'm expecting the price will retest the down trendline again before continue bullish movement to make ((E)).
That way I will have the most advantages to open buy order.
Commerzbank is still under valueCommerzbank is still under value and banks usually should take profit with rising interest rates and inflation.
A entry with a little bit cheaper price could be a good entry for a long time investment.
Commerzbank management has much to do, but is on a good direction. Integrating the comdirect could give a digitalization boost, hopefully.
Technical outlook: CKB.de bullish scenario:Technical outlook:
CKB.de bullish scenario:
We have technical figure Triangle in German company Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft (CKB.de) at daily chart. Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft is a major German bank operating as a universal bank, headquartered in Frankfurt am Main. In the 2019 financial year, the bank was the second largest in Germany by the total value of its balance sheet. The bank is present in more than 50 countries around the world and provides almost a third of Germany's trade finance. The Triangle has broken through the resistance line at 11/11/2020, if the price holds above this level we can have possible bullish price movement with forecast for the next 61 days towards 5.584 EUR. Our stop loss order should be placed at 3.960 EUR if we decide to enter this position.
Fundamentals:
- Germany's Commerzbank CBKG.DE swung to a third-quarter loss, as it dealt with fallout from the coronavirus crisis and continued a restructuring programme. Commerzbank has been under pressure from one of its largest shareholders, the private equity investor Cerberus, to carry out an overhaul.The bank was left leaderless over the summer when the chief executive and chairman stepped down to give Commerzbank a fresh start.
Technical outlook: CKB.de bullish scenario:Technical outlook:
CKB.de bullish scenario:
We have technical figure Triangle in German company Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft (CKB.de) at daily chart. Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft is a major German bank operating as a universal bank, headquartered in Frankfurt am Main. In the 2019 financial year, the bank was the second largest in Germany by the total value of its balance sheet. The bank is present in more than 50 countries around the world and provides almost a third of Germany's trade finance. The Triangle has broken through the resistance line at 11/11/2020, if the price holds above this level we can have possible bullish price movement with forecast for the next 61 days towards 5.584 EUR. Our stop loss order should be placed at 3.960 EUR if we decide to enter this position.
Fundamentals:
- Germany's Commerzbank CBKG.DE swung to a third-quarter loss, as it dealt with fallout from the coronavirus crisis and continued a restructuring programme. Commerzbank has been under pressure from one of its largest shareholders, the private equity investor Cerberus, to carry out an overhaul.The bank was left leaderless over the summer when the chief executive and chairman stepped down to give Commerzbank a fresh start.
COMMERZBANKHello everyone,
A good opportunity has been detected on the COMMERZBANK stock.
After strong upward movement on the COMMERZBANK stock, the price
found resistance on a 123.6% Fibonacci extension level, pulled back and
is currently correcting to the downside.
We are expecting the price to reach approximately the 4.615 price
area, where we have a 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, the 50 Moving
Average, the 100 Moving Average, as well as the lower bound of the
Bollinger Bands.
COMMERZBANKHello everyone,
A good opportunity has been detected on the COMMERZBANK pair.
After strong upward movement on the COMMERZBANK, the price
is currently correcting to the downside.
We are expecting the price to reach approximately the 4.560
price level, where we have a 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level,
the 50 Moving Average, as well as the 20 Moving Average of the
Bollinger Bands.
COMMERZBANKHello everyone,
A good opportunity has been detected on the COMMERZBANK stock.
After strong upward movement on the COMMERZBANK stock, the
price found resistance on a strong resistance point, pulled back and
is currently correcting to the downside.
We are expecting the price to reach approximately the 4.365
price area, where we have a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level,
the 50 Moving Average, the 100 Moving Average, as well as the
lower bound of the Bollinger Bands.
Channel & Tripple Bottom TradeCBK Trading in a channel since 08/19
Breakout middle of 02/20, due to corona it came back into the channel and is now sitting at the lower channel border and will probably hit a tripple bottom (15/08/19, 09/10/19, today, tomorrow?, next bad market day?)
sitting @ lower bollinger band
sitting @ lower channel border
high volume
oversold (RSI close to a bouncing point)
Daily ma50 might cross ma200 pretty soon (for the first time since 04/18
Might open three positions on the next down day:
#1 TP @5.05
#2 TP @5.9
# let it run
SL will be the trend line which starts on 26/02/18, hits 02/05/19, 07/11/19. As soon as it breaks it this turns into a short idea
