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GER40 LONG Below is a high-level, multi-timeframe trading plan for GER40 (DAX) that synthesizes the Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour analyses you provided. As always, manage risk carefully, adapt to changing market conditions, and remember that no setup is guaranteed. This is a technical overview for educational purposes and not financial advice. 1. Overall Market Context Weekly Bias: • Trend: Bullish structure with higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). • Support/Resistance: • Support near 19,750 (0.618 Fib extension) • Resistance near 20,500 (recent HH) • Indicators: • SMAs (10, 50, 100, 200) all sloping up. • Ichimoku Cloud is bullish, OBV rising, RSI ~60 (positive), ADX is low (trend not very strong but still bullish). Daily Bias: • Trend: Overall bullish, but short-term pullback has price near support. • Key Levels: • 19700–19650 is a confluence zone (50 SMA, Ichimoku Base Line, 0.5 Fib). • 20500 is major resistance (recent swing high). • Indicators: • Price above 100 & 200 SMAs (long-term uptrend intact). • Price below 10 SMA and Ichimoku Conversion Line (short-term bearish tilt). • RSI ~49 (neutral), MFI ~50 (neutral), ADX ~20 (weak trend). 4H Bias: • Trend: Range/consolidation after fall from 20500. • Price Position: • Below 10, 50, 100 SMAs, but finding support near 200 SMA (~19750). • Ichimoku Cloud signals short-term bearishness (price below the cloud). • Indicators: • OBV still positive relative to previous HL (buyers holding but not aggressively adding). • CMF slightly positive (~0.10), MFI ~32 (nearing oversold), RSI ~45. • ADX ~22 (weak momentum), with -DI > +DI (mild short-term bearish pressure). Takeaway: • The long-term trend (Weekly, Daily) remains bullish. • A short-term pullback is unfolding (Daily, 4H). • We want to align with the bigger uptrend but confirm a short-term reversal signal before entering. 2. Actionable Trading Setup A. Preferred Direction: Long/Bullish Given the weekly and daily uptrend, the ideal plan is to buy the dip once the short-term down move shows signs of exhaustion or reversal. B. Entry Triggers 1. Aggressive Early Entry • Zone: Around 19,700–19,650 (Daily 50 SMA / 0.5 Fib / Ichimoku Base Line). • Trigger Condition: A 4H bullish reversal candle (e.g., bullish engulfing, pin bar with strong rejection) or a clear break back above the 4H Ichimoku Conversion Line along with rising RSI > 50 on the 4H. • Why Aggressive? Price is still below short-term SMAs on the 4H and below the Ichimoku cloud. You’re buying on expected support without waiting for a full breakout. 2. Conservative Breakout Entry • Zone: Above 19,900–19,950 to reclaim the 10 SMA on the Daily and the 4H Ichimoku cloud. • Trigger Condition: A Daily close above the 10 SMA and/or the Ichimoku Conversion Line on the Daily. This signals the short-term pullback is likely over. • Why Conservative? Waiting for price to show proven strength, reducing false-break risk. C. Stop Loss Placement • Stop Loss (SL) for Aggressive Entry: • Just below 19,600 (below the 50 SMA & 0.5 Fib). • This levels out to a potential 100–150 point risk, depending on the precise entry. • Stop Loss (SL) for Conservative Entry: • Below the recent swing low (around 19,650). If the market truly regains the 10 SMA and Ichimoku levels, it shouldn’t return below that swing low if bullish momentum is resuming. • This is a wider SL, but the setup is more confirmed. D. Profit Targets (TP) 1. First TP: • 20,500 (the recent swing high). • If price approaches that level, consider locking in partial profits or moving the SL to breakeven. 2. Second TP (Optional Extension): • 20,800–21,000 (a psychological area / possible Fib extension above the previous HH). • Watch for weekly chart extensions or Bollinger Band upper extremes if momentum accelerates. 3. Stretch Target: • 21,250–21,500 based on a full extension from the Weekly Fibonacci or if the market picks up strong bullish momentum. • Only feasible if the market cleanly breaks 20,500 and a bullish daily structure continues. E. Trade Management & Timing 1. Partial Exits: • If you’re trading multiple contracts, consider taking partial profit at 20,500 and letting the remainder ride with a trailing stop. 2. Break-Even Stop: • Once price is comfortably above 20,100–20,200 and holding intraday retracements, move SL to entry to lock in profits and limit downside risk. 3. Monitoring Indicators: • Keep an eye on the 4H Ichimoku Cloud and the Daily 10 SMA for signs of ongoing bullish momentum. If price fails to hold above these levels once reclaimed, it could signal a deeper pullback. 4. Time in Trade: • Given the Weekly and Daily structure, this is not a scalp trade. It can take days to weeks. Let the market action confirm your bias. F. Suggested Leverage & Risk Management • Leverage: • Use moderate leverage (e.g., 1:5 to 1:10) if comfortable with the inherent risk. The more leverage, the higher the stress on your account if price temporarily dips. • Always size positions so that total risk (i.e., position size * SL distance) does not exceed your account’s acceptable drawdown (e.g., 1–2% of total capital per trade). • Risk/Reward Target: • Aim for at least 1:2 or 1:3 R:R. For example, risking ~100–150 points to potentially gain 300+. 3. Putting It All Together 1. Wait for Support Confirmation: • On the 4H, watch for a bullish candle near 19,700–19,650 (Aggressive) or a break above 19,900–19,950 (Conservative). 2. Enter Long Position: • Execute the buy on the confirmed signal. • Place SL below the identified support (19,600 or 19,650). 3. Manage the Trade Dynamically: • Move SL to breakeven at the first sign of decent profit (~20,100+). • Take partial TP at 20,500. • Let the remainder ride toward 20,800–21,000 if momentum persists. 4. Stay Aligned with the Bigger Picture: • Weekly and Daily remain bullish; short-term dips can be noise in a bull market. • Maintain discipline if price fails to reclaim key SMAs or Ichimoku levels (exit if breakdown accelerates below 19,600). 4. Final Notes • News & Fundamentals: While this setup is technical, be aware of any macro events (ECB, Fed, major economic releases) that can cause volatility spikes on indices like the DAX (GER40). • Adapt if Key Levels Break: • If price fails to hold 19,600 and closes multiple days below it, the bullish scenario may be invalidated short term. Look for deeper support in the 19,300–19,000 zone. • Emotional Control: Trading pullbacks within an uptrend requires patience to avoid jumping in too early. Confirmation signals reduce the chance of whipsaw. Conclusion: • Primary Strategy: Long (buy the dip) aligned with the Weekly and Daily uptrend. • Entry Zones: Around 19,700–19,650 (aggressive) or above 19,900–19,950 (conservative). • Stops & Targets: SL below 19,600; TP1 ~20,500, TP2 ~20,800–21,000. • Leverage: Keep it moderate (1:5 to 1:10). • Indicator Cues: Watch SMAs, Ichimoku lines, RSI, and OBV for confirmation of a renewed bullish push. Trade safe, manage your risk, and watch for momentum returning on lower timeframes to confirm the Weekly/Daily bullish bias!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by EliteMarketAnalysis
DAX H1 | Potential bullish reversalDAX (GER) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 19,771.69 which is a swing-low support. Stop loss is at 19,640.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support. Take profit is at 20,020.69 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Long
by FXCM
Bullish bounce?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 19,678.38 1st Support: 19,487.74 1st Resistance: 19,978.37 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:DE40Long
by ICmarkets
Ger40, Caution advised for the perma bulls!!We've completed a large overarching turquoise structure, reaching the target levels. Simultaneously, we've hit the target levels of the orange structure and reacted immediately. This indicates we might head down to the OCL (Overall Correction Level) to gather new momentum. So, I anticipate a possible scenario where we first gain some upward momentum (as indicated in the green box) before turning and heading downward. Caution is advised for those who believe the German economy will continue to grow without corrections, as we are currently in a significant correction phase.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by xSamu_TA
2024-01-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and happy new year. comment: Xetra (futures are currently trading 143 points higher) closed the year 2024 below 20000 and bulls could not get a decent bounce during the most bullish days of the year. My base assumption for the next days/weeks is a bigger second leg down which will leave no doubt that this bull trend is over and investors would be lucky to see 2025 close near 20000. There is a much greater chance of a decent bear year where market corrects a big chunk of the past 2 years and then moves sideways for the rest of the year. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19600 - 20200 bull case: Very weak price action by the bulls the past week. We have a big open gap between 20032 - 20241 and until bulls close that, bears are in control. If bulls manage to close above 20000 again, the odds of closing the gap will be good. We have the start of 2025 and you never know which side it will turn. Both 2023 and 2024 saw huge inflows and the start of the year also marked the low of the year. Bulls hope this time will be the same but I have big doubts about that. Invalidation is below 19800. bear case: Bears are in control. Decent two-legged pullback after the sell-off, we are trading below the daily 20ema and the bull bars last week were bad buys for the bulls. Bears expect a bigger profit taking to take place over the next days and another leg down to at last 19200 or even 19000. Their next target is a close below the breakout point 19660 to confirm the first leg and I doubt many bulls will hold long below 19600 because we could go and test the bull trend line around 19200. I can’t see this breaking much below 19000 for now because that price was tested so much between October and December, that we will likely go sideways there for many days. Invalidation is above 20150. short term: Neutral around 19900. Bearish below 19800 and uber bearish below 19600 for 19200 or lower. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Market was closed
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
GER40/DAX "GERMANY 40" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GER40/DAX "GERMANY 40" Indices Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 👀 So Be Careful, wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📉 : You can enter a short trade at any point. however I advise placing sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 3H period, the recent / nearest high level. Target 🎯: 19,300 or Before 19,400 Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ Economic Factors: Global economic slowdown: A slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China and the US, could negatively impact German exports and growth. Trade tensions: Escalating trade tensions between the US and China, as well as between the US and the EU, could negatively impact German exports and growth. Brexit uncertainty: The ongoing Brexit process could lead to uncertainty and volatility in the European markets. Monetary Policy Factors: ECB's monetary policy: A less accommodative monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB), potentially leading to higher interest rates, could negatively impact the index. Interest rate differential: A widening interest rate differential between the US and the EU could lead to a stronger USD and weaker EUR, negatively impacting the index. Geopolitical Factors: EU political instability: Political instability in the EU, potentially driven by a more fragmented European Parliament, could negatively impact the index. Global geopolitical tensions: Escalating global geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, could negatively impact the index. Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any decisions. Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
FPMARKETS:GER40Short
by Thief_Trader
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 19,681.24 1st Support: 19,244.23 1st Resistance: 20,427.78 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:DE40Long
by ICmarkets
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Big bull wedge or ascending triangle (does not matter which way you see it, both are correct) on the daily chart and we are in the middle of it. I do have a heavy bearish bias for dax but since we only printed 2 bear bars for the past 11 trading days, it’s not useful to be bearish. I do think it’s more likely we see 20100 and the top is in but I don’t expect US indexes to go down much more next week, so having a bearish bias might not be the most useful thing. We can’t expect the bull trend line to break on the next hit, given the recent bullishness, so my base assumption is a week inside the triangle and more chop. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. Only a daily close below 19600 would be my confirmation for the trading range. key levels: small range for next week is 20000 - 20500 and big range for Q1 is 19400 - 20500 bull case: Bulls are still in control but have only seen rejections above 20400. They probably want to buy closer to the bull trend line and daily ema before they try another run at the ath 20522. We are close enough to it, that it’s possible we make another ath but the upside is most likely very limited. Bulls got their retest of the ath and made a lower high, all bullish targets are met and the retest-gods are pleased. Market is free to do whatever. Invalidation is below 19600. bear case: Bears kept shorting new highs and made money but they have not going much for them until they can break below the current bull wedge/triangle. As much as I want this to crash to 19000, bears are weak. Best outcome for next week would be if we stay below 20400 and close the week at or below 20000. Invalidation is above 20550. short term: Neutral. No interest in buying this and will continue to scale in and out of shorts. I would like to see 20000 next week. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Continuing with scaling in and out of shorts. Currently holding a position with entry 20424 on futures (135 points above xetra). chart update: Added bear gap and still having my preferred path down as a two legged correction down to 19000.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
DAX/SPX - long - increase of approx 50%DAX/SPX 'crashed' in March 2003 and then a higher low was created in February 2022. You see an upward trend – just like before from 1992 and (also) 1980 – with the yellow line being respected again (touched in November 2024). The yellow lines are exactly the same. I expect the top of the channel to be touched, so around 5. From the current level, that is an increase of about 50%. We are on the eve of 1995, i.e. a rising stock market (final phase of the long-term bull market), but EU indices will overtake US indices for the time being. See also my other idea, you see the same with AEX/SPX. European indices are lagging behind those of the US.
XETR:DAX
by Krijgsman
DAX // neutral zoneThe market has turned south, after reaching the weekly target fibo 200, with a daily wave, and then tested the last clean daily breakout, but couldn't close above it. It's between a daily breakout and a daily breakdown, that makes it a neutral zone. Leaving this zone (up north there is a clean H4 breakdown that may stop the bulls) puts the market either in the primary long expansion phase, or the countertrend expansion. The target of the former is the weekly target fibo 213.2, the short target is the monthly breakout. ——— Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated. Level colors: Daily - blue Weekly - purple Monthly - magenta H4 - aqua Long trigger - green Short trigger - red ——— Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ <<please boost 🚀 if you enjoy💚
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by TheMarketFlow
GER40 - Short Setup My main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range. But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Maks_Klimenko
Fri 2024 12 13 Long||| Stats ||| Stats Week: ** Mid Month Turn, ** US CPI: 14:30, - as expected, ** Thu EU GC 14:15:, - reduced as expected, ** Mon Morning rule, - yes, ** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change, - yes Stats Month: ** Christmas Rally - start Mid Nov. - yes bottom ** Christmas Rally - US election year, start Dec. - yes Stats Year: ** US Election, ||| Trade Taken ||| Trade Taken: ** Time frame: * H3 ** Time: * 03pm, Set-Up: ** Trigger for trade: * Momentum Long, * Mon Morning rule, * Tue return to W1 trend - UP, * Senti, - P16, ** Mom Width: * 6 candles - med/strong, ** Mom Type: * 3rd directional - risk at last Mom turn, Risk Reward: ** Risk: * last Mom Turn, ** Target: * R 1:1 as at ATH,
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by ErPat
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below) Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Germany 40 maintains its bullish correction phase, currently trading at 19,937, below the VWAP (20) of 20,121. Support is positioned at 19,680, while resistance is at 20,562. The RSI at 50 reflects neutral momentum, indicating a pause in the prior uptrend. UK 100 index remains neutral within its long-lasting consolidation phase, trading at 8,218, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 8,183. Support is at 8,040, with resistance at 8,326. An RSI of 55 signals moderate momentum, hinting at slight bullish tendencies within the range. Wall Street is in a bullish correction phase, trading at 42,375, below the VWAP (20) of 43,064. Support is located at 41,941, with resistance at 44,188. The RSI at 32 suggests oversold conditions, potentially signaling a reversal higher. Brent Crude has finally flipped from its sideways range into a new bullish impulsive phase, trading at 7,642, above the VWAP (20) of 7,361. Support is at 7,144, while resistance is at 7,578. The RSI at 70 indicates overbought momentum, suggesting near term caution for further upside. Gold remains neutral in a consolidation phase, trading at 2,658. It has just broken back over the VWAP (20) of 2,635, which has defined the top of a short-term range. Support is at 2,574, and resistance is at 2,695. The RSI at 55 shows balanced momentum with a new bullish tilt, but still consistent with the ongoing range-bound market. EUR/USD remains very bearish with euro-dollar parity coming into view. It is in an impulsive phase, trading at 1.0267, below the VWAP (20) of 1.0428 . Support is at 1.0297, with resistance at 1.0559. The RSI at 28 highlights oversold conditions, suggesting potential downside exhaustion. GBP/USD is in a bearish impulsive phase, breaking down below a rising trendline drawn by Autotrend trading at 1.2380, below the VWAP (20) of 1.2589. Support is positioned at 1.2416, with resistance at 1.2761. The RSI at 30 indicates bearish momentum, with the oversold level consistent with a strong downtrend. USD/JPY continues its bullish impulsive phase, trading at 157.35, above the November high and the VWAP (20) of 155.76. Support is at 151.82, with resistance at 159.70. The RSI at 62 reflects strong upward momentum, supporting the bullish trend.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: Bulls printed 5 consecutive bull bars but price went nowhere. We are still below the daily 20ema and this looks like a shallow pull-back in a bear trend. Bears need a strong close below 19800 to confirm it. If bulls close above 20000 again, bears could give up and we test higher again. Market is in breakout mode and we will see a bigger move next week. Right now I see the odds 60/40 for the bears. comment: I don’t have anything to add to my tl;dr paragraph. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. Only a daily close below 19600 would be my confirmation for the trading range. key levels: 19600 - 20100 (below 19600, 19000/19200 come into play / above 20100, 20400 or higher is possible again) bull case: Bulls are preventing the market from making a new low for now but they fail to close daily bars above 20000. Once they do that again with follow-through, they likely took control of the market again and we could expect higher prices above 20200 again. Their first target above 20000 is to close the bear gap to 20240 and above that there is no more resistance until 20400. Invalidation is below 19600. bear case: Bears are doing good in keeping the market below 20000 which is the most important price for both sides. I still favor the bears to get a second leg down to 19200/19400 but those odds will only rise if we close below 19600. Market is currently in balance. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Slightly bearish but once this goes with some momentum above 20000 again that bearish bias is gone. Bears have the setup here and now and if they fail to break down below 19600 early next week I will view this as neutral or bullish if we go above 20100. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear gap and still having my preferred path down as a two legged correction down to 19000.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds