DAX**DAX:**
This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the bottom of the channel and reverse to test the highs.
DAX trade ideas
DAX to find support at market price?GER40 - 24h expiry
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Price action continues to trade around significant highs.
The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment.
Support is located at 18420 and should stem dips to this area.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
We look to Buy at 18425 (stop at 18325) 2,5RR
Our profit targets will be 18675 and 18745
Resistance: 18540 / 18605 / 18700
Support: 18486 / 18421 / 18361
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well.
dax xetra - this is the first time I post a xetra chart as well. I trade the dax cfd but I want to find out how big the interest in my post is for xetra vs cfd. Only difference is in price.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They closed 3 consecutive days below the daily 20ema and it was the 3rd consecutive monthly close below 18500. They also printed 3 consecutive weekly bear bars. Having said all that, bears sold off for 525 points while the last pull-back from the previous ath sold off for 940 points. So what did they accomplish in the past 3 weeks? Not much. Are they really betting on a big acceleration downward now at the bull trend line, after they tried for 3 weeks now or will the face the reality, that the market does not want to go lower and will give up on shorts? Only possibility I see is that they get a big big gap down on Monday Globex or early on to stay below the breakout price of 18500ish (counting only the bar body). If bulls get above the daily ema again, I think they will give up and they would try again 18770 or possibly even wait for 18880 again. If we get a leg up and it’s strong, I can see bears just not even trying and we would find out where bulls want to take it.
comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18550 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 / 18900
bull case: It’s a trading range near the ath and that’s all there is to it. If market was rejecting higher prices, we would have traded below 18000 long time ago. The bullish gap#2 stayed open and there is an argument for a head & shoulders bottom with the neckline 17700 and a measured move would bring us right back to retest 18900.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Unless bears print a big daily bear bar below 18400, they are not doing much. Thursday and Friday we made higher highs and higher lows and I do think bears will give up on Monday if the buying pressure is strong enough. Not much more magic to it currently.
Invalidation is a daily close above 18650.
outlook last week: “In favor of bulls, if they break 18650 early next week. TP 18770 at least but I think we can do a total ripper. If bears somehow manage to keep it below 18700, we can retest the lows and if they do a big surprise below 18400, we will see 18250 fast and below that is 17900.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18497 and now we are at 18557. Bulls got a higher high but bears kept it below 18650 for the week. Not the worst outlook but not on point either.
short term: Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 17900 over the next 1-3 weeks.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again.
current swing trade: None and depending on Wednesday, I will initiate new positions.
Chart update: The wave thesis is gone. This sideways movement has gone on for too long and we might see 18890 again but just as a leg inside a trading range. If it strongly moves way beyond 18900, I’m wrong and we might be on our way to 19400 or 20000.
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax cfd
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They closed 3 consecutive days below the daily 20ema and it was the 3rd consecutive monthly close below 18800. They also printed 3 consecutive weekly bear bars. Having said all that, bears sold off for 572 points while the last pull-back from the previous ath sold off for 1229 points. So what did they accomplish in the past 3 weeks? Not much. Are they really betting on a big acceleration downward now at the bull trend line, after they tried for 3 weeks now or will the face the reality, that the market does not want to go lower and will give up on shorts? Only possibility I see is that they get a big big gap down on Monday Globex or early on to stay below the breakout price of 18650ish (counting only the bar body). If bulls get above the daily ema again, I think they will give up and they would try again 18800 or possibly even wait for 19000 again. If we get a leg up and it’s strong, I can see bears just not even trying and we would find out where bulls want to take it.
comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18600 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 / 19000
bull case: It’s a trading range near the ath and that’s all there is to it. If market was rejecting higher prices, we would have traded below 18000 long time ago. The bullish gap#2 stayed open and there is an argument for a head & shoulders bottom with the neckline 18600 and a measured move would bring us right back to retest 19000.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Unless bears print a big daily bear bar below 18400, they are not doing much. Thursday and Friday we made higher highs and higher lows and I do think bears will give up on Monday if the buying pressure is strong enough. Not much more magic to it currently.
Invalidation is a daily close above 18700.
outlook last week: “In favor of bulls, if they break 18700 early next week. TP 18800 at least but I think we can do a total ripper. If bears somehow manage to keep it below 18700, we can retest the lows and if they do a big surprise below 18400, we will see 18300 fast and below that is 18000.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18638 and now we are at 18572. Bulls got a higher high but bears kept it below 18700 for the week. Not the worst outlook but not on point either.
short term: Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 18000 over the next 1-3 weeks.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again.
current swing trade: None and depending on Wednesday, I will initiate new positions.
Chart update: The wave thesis is gone. This sideways movement has gone on for too long and we might see 19000 again but just as a leg inside a trading range. If it strongly moves way beyond 19000, I’m wrong and we might be on our way to 19500 or 20000.
Ger30Ger30 Clean setup.If you know you Smart money concepts,then you know that this is a clean setup .
Ahaed of Fed Decision on WednesdayAs we can see on Us30 we are still inside the previous months candle and are looking to break out. Last week the candle was also inside the previous week candle which could indicate the markets are ready for a big move. I would like to see price push higher taking last weeks high, but price are reacted bullish on the 39028.55 level so I will be looking out for signs of coninued bullish behaviour.
Ger40 is another highly correlated pair and it has been quite choppy and bearish since the middle of May, the bearish volume is pretty weak so I will expect it to go up along with good data pretty soon. I can see on the 4H price has close above June 03 highs which could indicated a change of structure if price is not able to reach previous weeks lows.
DAX rising weaklyMarkets rose on Wednesday, recovering losses from the previous session in anticipation of important data on regional activity and awaiting the ECB's latest monetary policy meeting. At the open, it was up 0.4%. It was followed by the French CAC40 and the FTSE 100 with 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, and finally the Spanish IBEX35 with around 0.4%. A rate cut of 25 basis points from record levels is expected today, heavily influenced and persuaded by signs of moderation in European inflation. The rapidly changing earnings outlook is what is driving this policy possibility. Doubts remain about what will be accepted going into the rest of the year after slightly better-than-forecast inflation data for the eurozone.
The French PMI was similar to expectations overall, but services and composite details were slightly lower, the Spanish PMI slightly better than expected, the Italian PMI disappointed with its lower than expected data, and the German data provided relief by improving expectations. The overall Eurozone as a whole showed for the month of April a larger decline being -1% versus -0.5% expected and on an annual basis, -5.7% versus -5.1% expected. Today we have European Parliament elections across Europe, so PMI and production releases in Spain, Italy, France and Germany, which were expected to be better and did not meet expectations, will most likely affect the currency. Retail sales are expected to be negative due to the slowdown in consumption across Europe, so we will just want to see what the central bank tells us this afternoon.
Regarding the German index, as we said, it has recovered its bullish mood this day. It has come out of the bearish trading zone of the last few weeks. Since Monday, the German spread has recovered 1.70%. We have to see if it will go back above the all-time highs this Friday or look to do so from next week onwards. What is clear on the chart is that the Trading Point is in the 17,000 zone, the shape being the bell of a possible triple bell with no excessive volume at its top, and the RSI at the moment is in the middle zone. For this reason it would not be unusual to see the German index pierce and pull back strongly to at least the area of 18,279 points approximately.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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DAX H4 | Heading into swing-high resistanceThe DAX (GER30) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 18,855.31 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 18,960.0 which is a level that sits above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level and the all-time high.
Take profit is at 18,595.85 which is an overlap support.
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Short DAX ideaThe simple ideas are often the best! Lets see DAX pull back a few 100 points around these levels.
Long DAXseems like a decent technical level, and with prospects of lower interest rates, I think this could be a decent buy.
G30 we see buyers in control From a selling momentum in previous days we can except G30 to go pu to test the highest high as a change in direction is shown
2024-06-05 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market is much less euphoric than the others. Obviously trending up but still below 18700, which was big resistance last time. Bulls already had 3 pushes up inside the wedge and deep pull-backs in between, which shows selling pressure and no giving up by the bears. What are the odds, that dax follows the sp500 and nq pump today for a new ath? Low imo. If bulls had it in them, we would have seen it already. If we will melt-through 18700, I’m obviously wrong and you need to get long for the rocket ride to 19000.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18750
bull case: Bulls made 18500 resistance and had a strong rally to 18660 where the bear trend line ran through. Bulls quickly gave up after it stalled there and we got a tick-perfect retest of the opening price, which again, bulls bought aggressively to make a new high at 18678, which is 20 points below the open of the week and 10 below the open of the month. So huge resistance above and I would not bet on a breakout here, unless bulls just melt through with follow through. Bulls closed above the daily 20ema which helps their case.
Invalidation is below 18550.
bear case: Bears tried to get below 18530 multiple times in the EU session but failed and gave up for a 143 point rally. They see this bull wedge with 3 pushes up and want a reversal down and break below the wedge to 18450. R:R above 18650 is on the bear side and I will look for weakness against 18700.
Invalidation is above 18710.
short term: Neutral with slight bearish hopes. Bears need to keep it below 18700. If they fail, I will turn full bull for 19000 or higher.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bar 28 + 33 were big bear bars with big tails below and both could not close below 18530. Bears were warned there and bulls had to get long latest at bar 39 which was the third consecutive bull bar and a close above the 15m 20ema. From there you could have drawn the lower bull trend line and get long on bar 57 again.
call/vuyi think Dax might try to rise but lets be arlet. these days i don't trust stocks because they are overbought
2024-06-04 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Here is my update from yesterday after hours with an update for short term, since we clearly broke outside of the channel.
dax
comment: Globex perfectly retested the breakout at 18630 but failed and the EU session just sold off big time to a lower low. It was a small break below the bear channel line but ultimately a bear trap and market then tested the upper channel line. Market closed at the lows and under the important price 18500.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18750
bull case: Bulls see the third push down inside the bear channel as a lower high and now want a trend reversal to test back to 18700. They have not been able to make higher highs this week and that show’s weakness. The big bull trend line on the daily chart is still alive and as long as they are near the daily 20ema and the big bull trend line, they will BTFD. Next target is break above the bear channel line around 18530.
Invalidation is below 18380.
bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They want the market to continue to go sideways to down to break below the big bull trend line on the daily tf. 18400 is still resistance and therefore we are in an descending triangle and bears have a low chance of breaking below. They need consecutive bear bars below 18400 to strengthen their case.
Invalidation is above 18640.
short term: Neutral kinda. We will probably hit 18600 soon, where bears decide if it stays resistance or we test 18700 again. If it stays resistance, we could test 18400 again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: APPLIES TO YESTERDAY - Bar 13 was the first strong bear bar, then bar 22 + 24 made new lows and stayed below the 15m 20ema. Enough reasons to go short and that was good for 200+ points. My room did not catch the first leg down because I was not at my desk but the second one for 100 points.
2024-06-03 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes could not stay at the highs and bears showed some strength by closing the gaps we left behind on Friday. SP500 and nasdaq rallied into the close on weak volume but bulls nevertheless also showed strength and for the day we mostly moved sideways. Both sides have reasonable buying/selling pressure and arguments on their side. That’s why we can expect more sideways price action.
dax
comment: Big Globex gap up, big down, big up, big down and then dax did not rally as hard as sp500 and nasdaq did. Market was formed a triangle on the 1h tf and we have tested Friday’s breakout price 18590. Since we are at the lower third of the range and it’s clearly trading range price action, r:r is on the bull side for at least 18700 again. So either the triangle plays out and we move more sideways or we break above for 18800 or higher.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18750
bull case: Bulls see the low today as a retest and market is now free to pump again. The gap to 18655 closing price will probably be closed overnight and then bulls will probably retest 18700 or higher next.
Invalidation is below 18470.
bear case: Bears surprised the bulls with 2 strong legs down today. The breakout above 18720 looked decent and trapped many bulls buying high in a trading range. Bears could not touch last week’s closing price 18531, which is a sign of weakness. They closed below the daily and the 1h ema, which strengthens their case but given that it’s a clear trading range, not many bears want to sell below 18600.
Invalidation is above 18750.
short term: Up for 18700 and maybe higher. Play the range until clear breakout
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling the double top bar 28 + 54 one tick below bar 54. Was good for 160 points. My room caught a 100+ banger to the downside.
DAX to find support at market price?GER40 - 24h expiry
The primary trend remains bullish.
Price action continues to trade around significant highs.
Prices have reacted from 18381.
Previous support located at 18550.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our outlook is bullish.
We look to Buy at 18520 (stop at 18420)
Our profit targets will be 18770 and 18850
Resistance: 18670 / 18750 / 18800
Support: 18600 / 18550 / 18500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 remains in a bullish trend and has been correcting through time rather than price, with the price decreasing slightly to 18,655, now around the VWAP of 18,656. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 18,443 and 18,890, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 55, indicating a further moderation in sentiment compared to the previous report. A potential recession in Germany has influenced market sentiment.
UK 100 remains in a bullish trend but has transitioned into a corrective phase, with the price increasing slightly to 8,343, now around the VWAP of 8,342. Support has adjusted to 8,174, while resistance has increased to 8,500. The RSI has increased slightly to 55, reflecting a slight improvement in sentiment compared to the previous report. Recent political stability in the UK has positively impacted the market.
Wall Street seems to have settled into a sideways/neutral trend, with the price decreasing notably before rebounding to 38,788, below the previous VWAP of 39,247. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,058 and 40,435, respectively. The RSI has decreased slightly to 46, signalling a reduction in bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Concerns over U.S. debt ceiling negotiations have weighed on the market.
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing to 80.86, now below the previous VWAP of 82.47. Support has adjusted lower to 80.44, while resistance has increased to 84.50. The RSI has decreased to 37, indicating a strengthening of bearish sentiment compared to the previous report. OPEC's decision to maintain current production levels has affected prices.
Gold has shifted to a neutral trend and is in a consolidation phase, with the price decreasing to 2,320, now below the previous VWAP of 2,364. Support has adjusted higher to 2,433, while resistance has decreased to 2,294. The RSI has decreased significantly to 43, indicating a weakening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. Market uncertainty regarding interest rates has influenced gold prices.
EUR/USD remains in a bullish trend but has moved into a corrective phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.0852, now around the VWAP of 1.0840. Support has adjusted lower to 1.0780, while resistance has increased to 1.0900. The RSI has decreased to 56, indicating a slight moderation in bullish pressure compared to the previous report. Eurozone economic data showing weaker growth has impacted the pair.
GBP/USD remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.2738, now above the previous VWAP of 1.2690. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2558, and resistance has decreased to 1.2822. The RSI has decreased slightly to 61, indicating a moderation of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. Bank of England's comments on inflation have affected the pair.
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 157.41, now above the previous VWAP of 156.41. Support has adjusted higher to 154.83, while resistance has increased to 157.99. The RSI has increased to 60, reflecting a strengthening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. The yen's weakness amid BoJ's dovish stance has driven the pair higher.
DAX**DAX:**
This week's forecast will be for the price to drop to the bottom of the channel and after that move we'll have the scenario of the price continuing its descent to the area between 17.899 and 17.702 or reversing the trend after the touch and reaching the value of 18800.
New month. New BeginningsOn both charts we can see that at the end of May, volume began to decrease and prices seems to be moving sideways and holding.
Non farm payroll on Friday will be closey watched and may have the charts find direction as they will use the results to gauge the direction of interest rates.
The results are expected to be good but investor worry that a strong economy may prevent the interest rates from lowering.
I wil lkeep on te stance that good results will provide positive movements until I am shown other wise
