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DAX Tests Critical Support after Hotter German InflationConsumer price pressures in Germany accelerated in April to 2.4% y/y, which marked the first uptick since December. Eurozone inflation meanwhile persisted at the same level (May preliminary due on Friday), while wages in the region increased in the first quarter. This has created some worries around the disinflation process and the central bank’s prospects for less restrictive stance. GER30 extends its slide from the recent all-time peak into the third week as a result and now tests a crucial support area. It breaches the EMA200 (H4) threatening the 38.2% Fibonacci of its last leg up. This would pause the bullish momentum and create risk for deeper pullback towards the daily Ichimoku Cloud, but we are cautious around sustained weakness. Recent European inflation data may have showed some persistence and European officials may have warned against back-to-back rate cuts, but the ECB is expected to become the first major central bank to pivot and slash rates next week. This shift towards looser monetary setting, along with Germany’s exit for recession, are supportive for the stock market. Furthermore, the RSI is oversold and if GER30 manages to hold the pivotal EMA200 and 38.2% Fibo, its bullish bias would be reaffirmed and could lead to new record highs. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:GER30
by FXCM
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). ----------------------------------------------------------- Analysis Germany 40 remains in a bullish trend and has been correcting through time rather than price, with the price increasing slightly to 18,775, still above the VWAP of 18,622. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 18,325 and 18,920, respectively. The RSI has decreased slightly to 62, indicating a slight moderation in sentiment compared to the previous report. UK 100 remains in a bullish trend but has transitioned into a corrective phase, with the price decreasing slightly to 8,320, now below the previous VWAP of 8,383. Support has adjusted to 8,271, while resistance has decreased to 8,495. The RSI has decreased significantly to 53, reflecting a reduction in bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. Wall Street remains in a bullish trend but has moved into a corrective phase, with the price decreasing notably to 39,083, now below the previous VWAP of 39,473 - indicating a rising chance of a full bearish reversal. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,689 and 40,256, respectively. The RSI has decreased significantly to 47, signalling a reduction in bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend and continues in a corrective phase, with the price decreasing slightly to 82.99, now slightly above the previous VWAP of 82.72. Support has adjusted lower to 81.23, while resistance has decreased to 84.21. The RSI has decreased slightly to 46, indicating a slight moderation in bearish sentiment compared to the previous report. Gold remains in a bullish trend but has shifted into a corrective phase, with the price decreasing to 2,343, now below the previous VWAP of 2,361. Support has adjusted higher to 2,289, while resistance has decreased to 2,434. The RSI has decreased significantly to 47, indicating a weakening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. EUR/USD remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.0877, now above the previous VWAP of 1.0821. Support has adjusted higher to 1.0728, while resistance has increased to 1.0914. The RSI has decreased slightly to 63, indicating a slight moderation in bullish pressure compared to the previous report. GBP/USD remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 1.2775, now above the previous VWAP of 1.2637. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2443, and resistance has increased to 1.2831. The RSI has increased significantly to 71, indicating a strengthening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. USD/JPY has shifted in a neutral phase with the VWAP now more-or-less flat since the big reversal from over 160 and the price consolidating around the VWAP, though more recently increasing to 156.83, now above the previous VWAP of 155.82. Support has adjusted higher to 154.10, while resistance has increased to 157.54. The RSI has increased to 59, reflecting a strengthening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
DAX H4 | Heading into all-time highsThe DAX (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 18,923.54 which is a pullback resistance at the all-time high. Stop loss is at 19,050.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit is at 18,671.33 which is an overlap support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
DAX 40 run out of gas?Today on Memorial Day, the US market will remain closed today. The ECB has focused on cutting interest rates trying to get ahead of its peers in the US and UK. European stocks have started slightly higher from Friday's close. Sentiment continued part of the day up 0.28% at around 18,745 points. Data from the Ifo institute on current conditions were slightly below expectations, with a score of 88.3 compared to the consensus of 89.8 and lower than the previous 88.9, so it is possible to see the currency turning bearish against the dollar. As for expectations, they have not been met either, although they were slightly more optimistic, closing at 90.4 compared to 89.7 in the previous publication. As we have said, this will also affect the Euro. And finally, the publication of the German business climate, has also been clearly bad, showing the same data as the previous publication of 89.3 against the expected 90.4. This indicates a possible pessimistic sentiment regarding the market situation. If we focus on the chart, the DAX (Ticker AT: GER40) has been retracing its price touching highs in the middle of the month. A possible bullish pullback above the previous bullish breakout zone is currently being structured. The moment the 18,913.82 points (current high price) is surpassed, we will be looking at another possible "All-Time-High" (ATH) milestone. Currently the RSI indicator is not telling us much with a slightly overbought 61.09%, and the bell shape being dual. At the moment, there is a lot of pressure on two possible strong price zones: 16,721 points and 18,532 points. It is creating a possible third bell with low volume at the moment, in the area of 18,729 points. In order to continue at the highs, 405.75 points (2.19%) must be surpassed. It will be more likely to see a correction after testing the highs than a continuation of the success. Ion Jauregui - AT analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:GER40Short
by ActivTrades
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?DE40 is rising towards the pivot and could potentially reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 18,773.31 1st Support: 18,539.97 1st Resistance: 18,929.08 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:DE40Short
by ICmarkets
#202422 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls got a new ath and market sold off for 200 points to close the week below 18900 which was the second weekly rejection of that price level. Bulls need to keep this pull-back shallow, inside the small bull channel and above the daily 20ema for continuation. The bull channel and the daily ema are close enough for me to think we either go sideways to touch them or dip and bounce. That would be a perfect two legged correction and odds would favor the bulls for a third leg up. Invalidation price would be somewhere between 18500 - 18600 and then the big bull trend line has to hold if we get there or the trend is done and we are in a trading range. comment: Got exactly that second very weak leg down to the daily 20ema which is currently at 18650 and market could not close below it. Bulls are in full control and unless we see strong selling below the ema, odds favor another leg up to at least 19000 but I think another higher high is probable. Bears are not showing any strength and all important support prices and trend lines are holding. Close below 18400 would mean a daily close below ema and break of the bull trend line, that would change things for the bears and solidify this as a trading range. current market cycle: Bull trend until bears break 18400 (the big bull channel line) key levels: 18400 / 20000 bull case: This is a textbook two-legged (ABC) correction to the moving average and bulls got the most perfect signal bar to go long again on Friday. Bears have few arguments here until they break below 18500. Next for bulls is very likely a breakout of this bull flag for a retest of 19000 and then maybe higher. Since this pull-back was so weak, we could very well get another leg up. I have 19280 and 19650 as measured move targets. Invalid below 18400/18500. bear case: I said that last time we printed a new ath in April, we sold off for 1300 points in a very tight bear channel, which was basically an endless bull flag which ended with a climactic reversal at 17600. So how does it help with trading? We could go up and down from here? Yes. You wait. We are near the high of the bull flag and a clear breakout-retest-buy setup is probably around the corner. If bulls fail at 18800 again, good short to sell down inside a tight trading range back to around 18650. There is absolutely a small possibility that this just continues down in this tight bear channel like we did early April. outlook last week: “Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5.” → Last Sunday we traded 18805 and now we are at 18765. Neutral I said, neutral it was. Levels given were spot on and market closed 40 points below last weeks close. Perfect week for mean reversion. short term: Well, we made it 40 points lower in a bull flag. Nothing of my premise changed, so I did not change my short term outlook. But I still believe we will see a bigger second leg down (first was early April down to 17600) to at least 17600 (again) over the next 2-4 weeks. Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5. —unchanged medium-long term: 17000 over the next 2-3 Months but 16600 could be tough so that could happen early 2025 as well. Will update this along the way. current swing trade: No current position. 2 Swings for small profit last 7 trading days opened and closed. Chart update: Third push up (W5) is my preferred path for the next 2 weeks. Would update the chart, if bears brake 18500.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-05-23 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment If bears can get follow through selling tomorrow and trap bulls below the breakout levels, we could see acceleration of this selling. If bulls manage to BTFD and make money with it again, this madness continues for new highs I guess. dax comment: Another break of the neckline but bears need follow through. There are at least 3 measured move targets to around 18400-18450 so this will be the magnet for tomorrow. Invalid above 18760. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18400 - 18800 bull case: Bulls closed right at yesterdays close 18750 but US session closed below the neckline. Bulls are in deep trouble tomorrow if they can’t pump this above 18700 early again. Below 18600, 18400 will come fast. bear case: 18400. Invalid above 18760. No ifs buts whatnots here. Weekly close below 18400 and next week will be a bull slaughter. short term: Still Bearish - 18400ish was not hit today but if we hit it tomorrow, you read it here first. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged trade of the day: 18800 was clear resistance and shorting with a reasonable 20-30 point stop was an amazing trade today. Second best was the retest of the open for another short at the 1h 20ema.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
DAX continues to hold back bears.GER40 - 24h expiry Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end. A Doji style candle has been posted from the base. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our outlook is bullish. We look to Buy at 18655 (stop at 18555) Our profit targets will be 18905 and 18955 Resistance: 18762 / 18806 / 18928 Support: 18680 / 18586 / 18500 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
Nice Correction On Dax; More Upside Ahead? Stocks remain in risk-on mode after Nvidia's beats earnings expecations, so it’s not surprising to see DAX also turning up. Index has stabilized at the first support area between 18,620 and 18,560 from where we can see the price attempting to break out of what can also be referred to as a bullish flag, therefore, the market will at some point resume higher into a 5th wave. However, fourth-wave corrections can sometimes be tricky and complex, and it's not always easy to define the end of a wave four unless you wait a bit further for confirmation of a bullish reversal. In our example, if the DAX comes back to this week’s lows, the next significant, but also very strong, support can be found at the 38.2% Fibonacci level around 18,500. In either case, we believe the DAX will remain in an uptrend, but don’t be alarmed by a potential top if we see deeper price action. The most important invalidation level for a trend change is at 18,237. The upward projection for wave 5 should be around 19,000.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by ew-forecast