DAX trade ideas
Dax - back to 19KOn the intraday chart , the DAX has formed a H&S pattern , that is nearly completed.
This is a bearish pattern , and suggests weakness in the index.
The projection of the Head from the sloped neckline , has a target at 19K.
This pattern commonly has a divergence of price , with momentum and volume, as seen on chart.
DAX30 Buy 1H Exit parallel channelThe price exit the 1H descending parallel channel, TP back to Historic Maximus
DAX 40 Loses Upward MomentumDAX 40 Loses Upward Momentum
Today, Germany's PMI data was released, according to Forex Factory:
→ German Flash Manufacturing PMI: actual = 42.6, expected = 40.7, previous = 40.6;
→ German Flash Services PMI: actual = 51.4, expected = 50.6, previous = 50.6.
The DAX 40 index (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) showed a slight intraday increase, which could be viewed positively, especially given that last week, the index reached a yearly high.
However, the chart for the DAX 40 (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) shows signs of the upward momentum slowing:
→ The RSI indicator is showing bearish divergence;
→ Price fluctuations are forming a triangle that could turn into a bearish reversal pattern known as a Bearish Rising Wedge (marked by black lines).
If a bearish break below the lower black line occurs, it might indicate that the bulls failed to maintain the momentum above the blue channel, within which the DAX 40 index had fluctuated for most of 2024.
Thus, a potential pullback towards the psychological level of 19,000 should not be ruled out.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GER30: Peak Reached, Support Retest LikelyHello,
FX:GER30 has reached a peak and is now poised to retest support. While a potential decline toward the 1M pivot point is possible, the likelihood remains low. A bullish continuation is more probable if the 1D support holds firm.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
DAX Breaks Pivot: Bearish Momentum Targets Lower SupportDAX Technical Analysis:
the price has dropped below the pivot line of 19,489.2, showing signs of a bearish momentum. This break suggests potential weakness, especially after the price failed to maintain support in the highlighted zone near 19,400.
The bearish outlook remains intact as long as the price stays below the pivot and 19,400 area, suggesting that a move toward the lower support lines is probable in the short term.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 19400
Resistance Levels: 19490, 19565, 19660
Support Levels: 19270, 19110, 18970
Trend:
- Consolidation 19400 and 19270
- Bearish below 19400
- Bullish above 19490
Finding support The index looks headed to find support on near by barriers, as it failed to push up as a continuation.
DAX H4 | Potential bullish bounceDAX (GER30) is trading close to a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,421.13 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 19,280.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 19,689.28 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with the all-time high.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Could the price bounce from here?GER40 is reacting off the support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 19,439.80
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 19,279.78
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 19,673.35
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GERMAN 40Took a short sell on DAX due to Divergence in play on the 4H. OVERALL direction still bullish though
GER40GER40 structure is set for buy after breakout of resistance structure and a successful retest ,I believe that price will see a significant buy today
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40
Germany 40 remains bullish in an impulsive phase. The current price is 19,505, positioned above the VWAP (20) of 19,136. Support is now at 19,287, while resistance stands at 19,695. The RSI is 59, indicating ongoing bullish momentum but with slight moderation.
UK 100
The UK 100 is still neutral but the latest push to the top of the range suggests a possible breakout is imminent. The current price is 8,335, sitting just above the VWAP (20) of 8,281. Support is identified at 8,183, while resistance is at 8,380. The RSI is 53, reflecting a balanced momentum with no strong directional bias.
Wall Street
Wall Street remains bullish, in an impulsive phase as price pushes into new record highs. The price is currently 43,052, trading above the VWAP (20) of 42,444. Support is at 41,511, and resistance is at 43,377. The RSI is at 61, maintaining bullish momentum.
Brent Crude
Brent Crude has flipped into a neutral trend with no clear direction. The price is 7,359, slightly below the VWAP (20) of 7,550. Support is at 7,022, while resistance stands at 8,077. The RSI is 45, signalling a lack of clear momentum.
Gold
Gold remains bullish in an impulsive phase as the price hits new all-time-highs. The current price is 2,726, above the VWAP (20) of 2,659. Support is located at 2,595, and resistance is at 2,725. The RSI is at 73, indicating strong bullish momentum and a potential for overbought conditions.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD stays bearish in an impulsive phase that gathered steam over the past week but could be getting over extended. The price is currently 1.0835, below the VWAP (20) of 1.0962. Support is at 1.0771, while resistance stands at 1.1153. The RSI is 29, reflecting strong bearish momentum and an oversold market.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is neutral having broken its uptrend but not made major downward progress either, consolidating at a price of 1.3001, slightly below the VWAP (20) of 1.3122. Support is at 1.2890, and resistance is at 1.3355. The RSI is 37, indicating weaker momentum and a potential for further downside.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY remains bullish in an impulsive phase. The current price is 150.21, over the big 150 threshold and well above the VWAP (20) of 147.83. Support is at 143.25, and resistance is at 152.41. The RSI is 64, reflecting strong bullish momentum.
Mon 2024 10 21 - Short||| Stats |||
Stats Day:
** 08:00 H4 double color, - Short
Stats Week:
** Mid Month Turn,
Stats Month:
** Oct turn,
** Mid Nov end,
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H4
** Time:
* 08am,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* 8am H4 double color Short,
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* Initial Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as against trend,
Fri 2024 10 11 - Long||| Stats |||
Stats Day:
** 08:00 H4 double color, - NO
** 09:00 H3 Doji other side, - NO
** 09:30 VOLD +1.2, AD +1.1, Senti +25, Agio St +0.04, Lg +0.06, - Range
** 09:45 VOLD +1.1, AD -1.4 Senti +10, Agio St +0.04, Lg +0.06 - Range
** 16:15 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti ???, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Range/Long/Short
Stats Week:
** US CPI 14:30 - slight up,
** Mon Morning rule - n/a,
** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change - pending,
Stats Month:
** Oct turn,
** Mid Nov end,
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H3
** Time:
* 03pm,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* Momentum Long,
* Tue return to W1 trend - UP/DN / - FALSE,
* Senti +10,
** Mom Width:
* 3 candles - strong,
** Mom Type:
* 3rd directional - risk at last Mom turn,
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* last Mom Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as high in retrace,
GER30We looking for selling opportunities as long the market respect the ceiling zone that will result in sells to the downside| 30 MIN
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax xetraGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: We are in W5 and no idea how high it will go. 20000 is the obvious choice and only 300 points higher on xetra. Until we hit that level, it’s hard to get bearish. The bull channel is also perfectly leading up to that price and who tf am I to deny technical patterns eh. Only longs for me are on strong momentum and they will be scalps. I am awaiting the weakness to short this into oblivion over the next 2 years.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish outlook was good. Bulls will likely retest ath on Monday/Tuesday and have good chances of making new ones. My targets above are 19500 and 19600 with 20000 being possible if we get blow-off top. Don’t be a bear until bears can close below 18900.
comment : Bullish was good but the rally is losing steam. We are in the final leg before we probably transition into a trading range before we go down. 20000 is the target for bulls and I expect them to get it one way or the other. Preferred path is a spike followed by huge profit taking. Nothing about the chart is good for bears and I would not even think about shorts, before we see some decent selling again. You never want to be early in a trade as a retail trader.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case:
Bulls have all arguments on their side again. My bullish wave thesis is still fitting perfectly and W5 could lead to 20000. Any close below 19200 would seriously hurt the bull case.
I can’t write anything else but the stuff from last week. Nothing changed. We are moving higher, bears have no arguments, 20k is the target. Don’t make this more complicated as it is.
Invalidation is below 19300.
bear case: If you don’t want to long this, you simply have to wait. Bears are doing nothing and until we see much greater selling pressure, I will not even waste time on thinking bearish. Will this overvalued trash index lose 30-50% in the next 5 years? I have zero doubts about that. Is this the time to start scaling into shorts? Absolutely fucking not.
Invalidation is above 19400.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish for 19500 and higher.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19373 and now we are at 19779. Everyone is a genius in a bull trend. Never forget that when your uber driver tells you about Nvidia or Dogecoin.
short term: Bullish for 20000. Can see a pullback first or not. We are in the middle of the channel, which is always a bad spot. Trade momentum or long a decent pullback.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added minor upper bull wedge trend lines (dotted) which will likely be broken on Monday and deleted again and a possible two legged correction.
Sell to buyThe index looks like it has finished its consolidation. Bearish pressure will aim to find support in the immediate lower structures.
Germany Stock Market Index (DE40) | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
# Trend | Time Frame Conductive | 15 Minutes Time Frame
- General Trend
- Measurement on Session
* Support & Resistance
* Trade Area | Focus & Motion Ahead
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
DAX H4 | Bullish uptrendDAX (GER30) ) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,421.13 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 19,290.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 19,689.28 which is a swing-high resistance at the all-time high.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
GER30 Eyes New Highs with Key Support TestsHello,
FX:GER30 continues to impress, reaching new highs with a solid upward trend. We now expect support tests around the 1M PP level. So far, we've seen support at the 1D PP, but it remains to be seen if that will shift moving forward. If the price crosses and holds above 19,643.5565, the next upside target is 19,764.4548. Should it break and hold above 19,764.4548, we could see a move towards 20,127.1495.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
