DAX and euro financials and also dollar effect... DAX and financials and dollar effect... spotting divergences for pullbacks...
DAX trade ideas
202407 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood day and i hope you are well.
Bulls made new all time highs on dax, sp500, nasdaq and the dow (those are the ones i cover, so i don’t care about the rest). Since i don’t think this is the beginning of a new stronger trend, where we rally another 5-10%, all bullish targets are met imo. My focus has now shifted to a change in the character of the market. We had amazing bull runs, next logical cycle is a trading range before we get a new bear trend. We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. A week ago i raised the thesis that we are very close to the end of this bull rally and Opex might be a good opportunity to trap many late bulls.
You can argue that it’s quite stupid to talk about bearish targets after many new aths and rallies and that may be so. I have given you my reasoning and now it’s gathering evidence and looking for the signals.
Now comes the outrages part this week. I mentioned a couple of times now that these highs are a good place to start long term shorts. Shorting here at the tops, has the potential to be the trade of a lifetime. You don’t get that many multiple year long major trend reversals. Everyone wants to buy low and sell high but when the time comes, who has the balls and nerves to do it without losing it all?
dax
Dax has not moved in 2 weeks and that’s only due to weakness by the bulls. If they had the strength to produce a new ath or the retest, it would have happened by now. If you want to short the highs, you still need a wide stop to factor in a spike. So at least 17250/17300.
bull case: Bulls need a strong daily close with follow through the next day. Right now they are still closing above the daily 20ema but market the doji closes are helping the bears more than the bulls. Since most indexes rallied so much the last days, the bull case for dax is very weak imo.
bear case: Bears need to show strength and a daily close below 16950. If they get that, i think the odds of dax trading quickly down to 16650 are high. They see the 4 tops that failed to close above 17132 and wait for bulls to finally give up. They got 3 days of lower highs and lower lows, so we are already in a bear channel inside this bigger trading range. But we are also in multiple triangles so market will break out soon.
outlook last week: “Neutral here. Both sides have reasonable arguments and i don’t like to guess these odds around 50/50. Just wait for strength with follow through. Will update this anyway in my daily updates“ → Last Sunday we traded 17025 and now we are at 17032, outlooks do not get better than that.
short term: bearish. we will get a big move down next week or the week after. could go sideways for week before the move. odds clearly favor sideways, just to be very clear about that, yet i think bearish price action is reasonable and due.
medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 12/02/2024 (+ HTF)In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
DE40 Analysis. will it fall?Hello everyone. i want share my idea about Germany index.
i am looking this index long time, it had pretty strong bullish movement but it losing momentum, it took buy side liquidity and coming down. after big and strong year, we see price need new buyers for push up but at the moment sellers winning i think. Today in New York Session we had pretty good third Low High which i think it is some sing from sellers.
For me it will be the best scene to brake 1D FVG (Fair Value Gap)
and 1D Support. if my scene will go this way then i will share my updates about trail stop loss.
AB=CD Double Bottom in DAXEntering hoping the reaction from the measured move will allow me to move my stop to breakeven.
Also anticipating the stops behind the previous low will serve as a liquidity boost to move the price upwards.
The risk to reward is just illustrative.
SHORT IDEALooking for a continuation lower today with my bias favoring the short side.
Annotations and anticipated key levels on the chart.
Once the stop level of 16994.9 is breached, the idea is invalidated and will be on the sidelines for another opportunity.
Key anticipation: High impact News Driver during the New York Session.
As always manage risk and conserve capital.
Timely Opening Range Breakout Strategy (TORB)Today, I’ll tell you about an amazing research study back from 2019 by a team of Taiwanese researchers, “Assessing the Profitability of Timely Opening Range Breakout on Index Futures Markets.”
Takeaway: The study's results are compelling. Implementing the TORB strategy yielded over 8% annual returns across the tested markets. Remarkably, the TAIEX index showcased a staggering 20.28% annual return. These numbers underline the potential of TORB in maximizing trading gains.
█ What is Open Range Breakout?
Open Range Breakout (ORB) is one of the simplest and safest strategies day traders use in a relatively low-volatility market. Opening Range means exactly just that. You check an asset's highest and lowest price in a certain time frame (usually 15 to 60 minutes) from the market's opening time.
These levels become your resistance and support that guide your trading plan for that day. Say if your chosen stock price goes higher than the highest level after the opening range; it indicates a bullish run for the day. Conversely, it indicates a bearish run if the price loses support in a downward trend.
█ Timely Opening Range Breakout Strategy
ORB has a certain set of challenges, especially for volatile markets. The Timely Open Range Breakout (TORB) strategy has been proposed in response to these challenges.
TORB leverages high-frequency intraday data and aligns trading strategies with the active hours of the underlying stock markets.
By analyzing one-minute intraday data from 2003 to 2013 across various markets, including DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, HSI, and TAIEX, the study by Yi-Cheng Tsai et al. demonstrates the effectiveness of this strategy.
The key lies in identifying the 'active hours' of the market, aligning with the opening range of the underlying index.
█ 1. PMMV and PMVR:
The research paper introduces two critical variables for the TORB strategy: Per-Minute Mean Volume (PMMV) and Per-Minute Variance of Return (PMVR). These metrics are essential in identifying the most active hours for futures market trading.
PMMV provides a snapshot of the market's activity level at each minute of the trading day. PMVR is crucial for understanding the volatility or the degree of fluctuation in the market at each minute.
PMMV (Per-Minute Mean Volume) is calculated by averaging the trading volume in a one-minute interval over a specified number of trading days.
The graph shows that the German 40 is most active during the London opening and 30 minutes into the New York opening.
PMVR (Per-Minute Variance of Return) measures the variance of the one-minute returns, calculated as the logarithmic difference between the closing prices of one-minute intervals.
Using PMVR, the German 40 is most active during the London opening session and approximately one hour into the New York session.
█ 2. TORB Trading Rules:
Basic ORB trading rules are applied here.
Buying pressure dominates if the price moves above the resistance level, suggesting potential upward price movement. Conversely, selling pressure prevails if the price falls below the support level, indicating a possible downward trend.
These rules are applied within the active trading hours, defined by the PMMV and PMVR metrics.
Buy Signal
Sell Signal
The strategy also defines three key time points: the beginning of the observed period, the end of the observed period (probe time), and the time of closing the position. The prices at these specific times determine the conditions for buying and selling.
█ 3. Data Sets:
The study utilized two main datasets for its experiments:
Intraday Data of Five Futures Markets: This dataset includes one-minute intraday data of the E-mini futures of the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, HSI (Hong Kong), and TAIEX (Taiwan). The period covered ranges from 2001/2003 to 2013, providing a comprehensive overview of these markets over a decade.
Transaction Data for TAIEX Index Futures: This dataset contains detailed transaction data for the TAIEX index futures, covering the period from 2006 to 2013. It analyzes the relationship between TORB signals and trader behavior in the Taiwanese market.
Interestingly, the research even considers the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, presenting test results for two sub-periods: before and after 2007. This approach ensures a thorough understanding of the strategy's performance across different market conditions.
█ Results and Analysis
1. TORB Profitability Test:
The TORB profitability test involved back-testing the strategy for the five futures markets.
DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ results revealed that strategies with probe times in the early stages yielded significantly higher annual returns.
DJIA: The results showed that TORB transactions decreased as the probe time moved away from the beginning of active hours. This implies that the strategy was most effective when applied close to market opening times.
S&P and NASDAQ: Similar to the DJIA, these markets also showed that strategies with early-stage probe times earned higher annual returns.
Additionally, the TAIEX results demonstrated that TORB strategies earned significantly higher returns with probe times of less than 200 minutes.
2. Impressive Returns:
The study's results are compelling. Implementing the TORB strategy yielded over 8% annual returns across the tested markets. Remarkably, the TAIEX index showcased a staggering 20.28% annual return. These numbers underline the potential of TORB in maximizing trading gains.
It also found that the best probing times were shorter in the U.S. markets and longer in Asian markets.
The research demonstrated that TORB strategies yielded consistently higher returns than traditional TRB (Trading Range Breakout) strategies, with no significant results in profitability tests for all TRB strategies across the five futures markets.
To provide a clear picture, here's a summary of the daily returns for each market analyzed:
E-mini DJIA: See Table 1 from the research paper
E-mini S&P: See Table 2 from the research paper
E-mini NASDAQ and HSI: See Tables 3 and 4 from the research paper
TAIEX: See Table 5 from the research paper
The active hours, identified by peaks in PMMV and PMVR, played a crucial role in the strategy's success.
For instance, the E-mini DJIA showed peaks around 8:30 AM and 3:15 PM, coinciding with the opening and closing times of the underlying market. Similarly, peaks were observed for HSI around the opening, closing, and lunch break times.
█ Relationship Between TORB Signals and Trader Behavior
The study also examined the relationship between TORB signals and trader behavior, particularly in the TAIEX futures market.
It was observed that the daily volume for individual traders was about twice that for institutional traders. The returns of the TORB strategies were positively related to the net buy positions of institutional traders both before and after the breakout.
This suggests that by following the TORB signals, one could trade in the same direction as institutional traders and obtain positive returns.
Specifically, the returns of the TORB strategies were significantly and positively related to foreign investment institutions, both before and after the breakout, indicating that TORB signals align with the trading direction of the most informed traders in the Taiwan market.
█ Reference
Y.-C. Tsai, M.-E. Wu, J.-H. Syu, C.-L. Lei, C.-S. Wu, J.-M. Ho, and C.-J. Wang, "Assessing the Profitability of Timely Opening Range Breakout on Index Futures Markets," IEEE Access, vol. 7, pp. 32061- 32071 Mar. 2019.
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Disclaimer
*Our results are approximate. We encourage you to test the assumption yourself. We do not guarantee that you will get the same results. This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
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DAX Will it drop at the top of the 1-year Channel Up?DAX (FDAX1!) is currently trading at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the December 20 2022 Low. This is a more than 1-year trading structure and as long as its stays intact, we should see a rejection below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the previous declines within the pattern, there are high probabilities of seeing a minimum of -6.50% pull-back. That gives us a Sell Target at 16000. The absolute bottom on the long-term based on the 2023 price action is the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), which formed the market Lows of March 20 2023 and October 27 2023.
If the index closes a 1D candle above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up, then we will drop the sell and buy the break-out instead, targeting 17600, which would complete a +20.90% rise from the October Low, symmetrical to the rise on the December 20 2022 Low.
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ASIA: DAX40 - Break & Retest - DepletionTIMING: Asia - After Equities Open
LEVELS: 4H Break & Retest/Head & Shoulders
SETUP/ENTRY: 15m B&R on Depletion
BONUS: RSI, 2CT
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 09/02/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
(bhs trader) learning to chart open to ideas de30 learning trends that involves germany indices. open to ideas about trend and charting
SHORT IDEAanticipating shorts lower, following bearish price action yesterday. Waiting for bearish momentum for entries short to engage.
Annotations and anticipated key levels marked on the charts.
Once the stop level of 17023 is breached, the idea is invalidated.
As usual, manage risk and conserve capital.
German40 to continue downAfter our first idea achieved its goal the entry point is valid right now as well for continuation of the fall. Going in again for RR 1:5
DAX40 ANALYSIS**DAX 40 ANALYSIS**
***Structure*** The 1 hour chart is quite clear in my opinion, the bullish trend is proceeding nicely and steady, with a few drops here and there that only constitute great opportunities to go long once again.
***Liquidity*** Price has now formed the dynamic liquidity trendline below the lows, it’s been a while since price has taken out some liquidity to fuel future movements and is quite clear how slower the trend is getting. The tank is almost empty, I think it’s time to drop now to take out some of the lows created in the past few days to fuel the next bullish movement.
***Demand*** we have 2 clear levels marked on our chart, the yellow zone and the gray zone. They’re both great levels in my opinion, the aggressive of course would grant you a better risk to reward, but price may never come that deep.
The aggressive area looks more interesting in my eyes, but as usual, I will be waiting for confirmation on the 5 min chart, I’m talking about the usual trigger (bullish break, liquidity grab).
***Positioning*** In case you try the aggressive zone ( entry price at: 16864.0) the stop should be placed right below the demand zone, at 16829.0.
Whilst if you want to wait for the more conservative zone, placed in the 16800.0 area, the stop should be placed below the lows, at 16729.0.
***Targets*** As usual, we take partials and move to breakeven once our trade reaches the 1:3 Risk to Reward, then we can leave it running to test the local highs at 17150.0
@everyone
German40 time to go time For a long time smart money has been waiting to take out the 17000 liquidity zone. Went in, and was rejected by a long body wick on the 1H time frame. Today it reached new highs at 17050. There is nothing neither technically, or fundamentally that should keep the index going up. Earnings season is over. Germany farmers are protesting. Inflation is high. Geopolitical tention continues to go up evey day. Entered short term with SL 50 pips above the shadow of the wick and short term take profit. RR 1:10
DAX to follow the US positive price action?GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17066.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Our outlook is bullish.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 16966.
The measured move target is 17184.
We look to Buy at 16970 (stop at 16890)
Our profit targets will be 17170 and 17250
Resistance: 17066 / 17100 / 17200
Support: 17000 / 16930 / 16850
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GER40 In A Strong Bullish TrendGER40 In A Strong Bullish Trend
GER40 keeps rising and now it is creating a new all-time higher again.
The bullish trend is very strong and it looks unstoppable.
After the price broke out from the big pattern it proved that we had very strong bullish volume
positioned near 16800 and now the price is only rising.
It is normal to move slowly at these zones but we can see it rising even more.
For the moment I am focused on 17300 as a maximum move.
After that we have to see what will happen again.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well.
Today markets tricked many traders into strong moves in a weak environment. The move’s seem like they will break out of the range but they fail at resistance over and over again. It’s a neutral market where buyers and sellers agree on the middle of the range as the fair price. You have to play the range until there is a clear breakout or you don’t trade at all.
dax
Groundhogs day. Bears tried and bulls bought it. Bears stepped aside enough then to let Dax print a new high for the year. Biggest question right now is this: Was the move today strong enough for another leg up and a new ath? I doubt it but i think it’s higher probability than trading below 16800.
bull case: Bulls are still in BTFD mode and they made a new high for 2024. A measured move target from today’s move would bring us above 17300 and i think this is more probable than bears showing strength and bringing this below 16800. 16950 is big support and at least a retest of the ath at 17199 is my base case.
bear case: Bears see it as a double top with the January high at 17120. They want to continue inside the range 16950 - 17100 but they are weak and quick to take profits. Until bulls stop with BTFD, you should not bet on a bear breakout below given range. I still think my thesis for the blow off top and a quick drop is valid and the next bear cycle can begin.
short term: sideways to up
medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300. adding to long term shorts here at the highs
trade of the day: BTFD. I hate repeating it but market currently does exactly the same
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 07/02/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
GER40Trading is nuanced and requires as much art as science to execute successfully, which means that there is only a profit-making trade or a loss-making trade.
GERMANY 40 SELL
I want to try this sell, in my opinion probable reversal.
The real key regardless of any strategy is to have a decent risk/reward .
You win and you lose , so be cautious.
No financial advice, do your own research.
