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DE40 (German Index) – Weekly Insight and 4-Hour AnalysisDE40 (German Index) – Weekly Insight and 4-Hour Analysis The German Index (DE40) has been strongly bullish over the past week. However, I’m currently avoiding any long trades, and here’s why: Whenever the market rallies sharply—especially with DE40—there’s a high probability of a sudden crash before you can react. While the 4-hour time frame shows slight corrections, these pullbacks lack strength and conviction. Impulsive entries at this stage could expose your capital to unnecessary risk. Ideal Trading Scenarios: Fibonacci Retracement Setup: Wait for the price to pull back to at least the 50% retracement level on the Fibonacci scale. If the price shows clear signs of bullish momentum or a pullback at this level, it could signal a good opportunity to go long. Key Level Test at 19,670: If the price continues to drop instead of stabilizing at the Fibonacci retracement level, watch for it to test the key support zone at 19,670. Once the price confirms this level, it may provide a solid entry point for a long trade. Liquidity Sweeps and Wicks: Look for a liquidity sweep, such as a significant wick to the downside, indicating a potential reversal. This confirmation can offer an additional layer of security for long trades. Important Notes: Protecting your capital should always be your top priority. Avoid impulsive trades during shallow corrections, as they often lack follow-through. Be patient and wait for clear retracements or liquidity sweeps before entering the market. Making no money is still better than losing money. Final Thoughts: Patience is the key to success in such a scenario. Avoid revenge or impulsive trading, and let the market come to you. Focus on protecting your capital and only act when the setup aligns with your strategy. That’s it for today’s analysis. I hope this helps you in your trading decisions. Don’t forget to like and comment if you find this valuable—it keeps me motivated to provide more insights!
ICMARKETS:DE40
by KainT21
My expectations of DAX!Hi guys, I hope you are doing well ** The used time frame for my analysis is 1h frame on the chart, however, I used too the 6H, 8H and daily frames to see the bigger image which all support still my decision. ** As you see the purple trend line which acts as a strong support to the price to push up from. ** The red triangle is very important here too, as the break through (not by a wick but by a closed closed body) in either way will determine the direction if it will be bullish or bearish however, I see the pure wish to break to the upside of the triangle towards 44460-44470 ** I hit already on my previous idea for Dax 4 TPs in a row and I am looking to the 5th one here so I created a separate idea for to make it clear. ** The whalers understand well that small retail investors are looking to short so they enjoy hitting their stop losses and in mean time they did not reach to their target yet as I said that early enough to catch the bullish wave profit and I see still a room to go further up. My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help. I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by moustafa_marei
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: 20425 is the ath. It’s a parabolic blow-off top at the end of the bull trend. We will likely see a deeper pullback next week. My first targets below are 20000 and then the breakout retest around 19700. We can obviously print another higher high but the upside will probably be very limited next week. I have drawn 3 upper bull trend lines that fit the current structure and no matter how sloppy I draw them, I can’t see this going much further than 20500. Always keep in mind that this is not an exact science, especially when you try to determine tops. We could easily go 21000. At this point it’s just very unlikely compared to a pullback, given the structure and Opex next week. Quote from last week: comment: Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. comment: 20500-20600 is my max on this. You will not get any bullish outlooks from me anymore. I could be wrong on this for weeks and would not care. The chart shows my preferred path and the only I will be willing to trade. Market will most likely test the daily 20ema this year again. Currently at exactly the breakout point around 19660. There we will see a decisions if bulls can do another retest of the highs into year end or if profit taking and sideways movement will close this year. current market cycle: Bull trend - parabolic rally which is the very end. key levels: 19000 - 20600 bull case: Bulls can keep this going as long as not many start to take profits and bears not doing anything. If the momentum stays on, there is no reason why this could not go up to 20600 or higher. Is this likely after 800 points last week? The first pullback after such a leg up is probably getting bought and a good buying opportunity for many bulls. Until we begin to see a bigger pullback, bulls have all the arguments on their side, no matter how overbought it is. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Just the fact that this is overbought beyond anything ever before, does not help any trader. My preferred path forward is a deeper pullback to at least 19700 but as of now, we have not seen a single daily bear bar for 7 trading days. Anything in this section is dependent on bears actually building bigger selling pressure and breaking below prior lows. We are trading at the top of multiple multi-year or monthly patterns and that should be enough to at least stall the market for now. Best case for the bears would be a quick move down to 20000 on Monday, to open up the possibility of a decent two-legged move down to 19700 or more. At 20k, I expect buyers to step in hard and produce another bounce first. Invalidation is above 20600. outlook last week: short term: Max bullish for 20k. Can we chop some before we get there? Sure but I don’t think bears can get this below 19300 again before we hit 20k. → Last Sunday we traded 19626 and now we are at 20384. 700+ points on the week. short term: No more bullish outlooks. I want to see big juicy red bars and people posting on x about “buying opportunity of a lifetime” while they double down all the way back to 19000. Neutral until bears come around. No interest in buying anything above 20100 as of now. 20k might be a decent long scalp for a quick bounce. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Converged all major upper trend lines around 20400-20600 and added a potential two-legged correction for next week.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
Dax view and targets!PEPPERSTONE:GER40 Hi guys, ** I have 4 TPs and feel free in taking the level you wish of them. ** The index jumped up due to a massive bullish push and I see other moves to the upside. ** TPs and SL are on chart above. ** I believe too that the retrace to up will be happening from current price 20210 or from 20200 ** There is a little chance too that it could go down to the purple trend line down to jump from but I personally do not think so ** The time frame I used is 3h frame. Good luck all)) My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help. I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by moustafa_marei
GER 40 Trade Log GER40 1H Long Setup: Entering at 0.5 FVG Level I'm eyeing a long position on the GER40 (DAX) based on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's the breakdown of my trade setup: 🔹 Entry Point: - Entering at the 0.5 level of the hourly Fair Value Gap (FVG). 🔹 Risk Management: - Risk: 1% of the trading account. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2. - Stop Loss (SL): Placed below the 1H Kijun-sen line to account for potential volatility. 🔹 Trade Idea: - Expecting a retracement to the FVG before resuming the upward trend. - Aware that price action might slice through our SL, but willing to see how it unfolds. 📊 Technical Analysis: - Ichimoku Cloud: The price is above the cloud, indicating a bullish trend. Placing the SL below the 1H Kijun-sen provides a safety net against sudden dips. - FVG Levels: Fair Value Gaps often act as magnets for price retracements. The 0.5 level is a strategic entry point to capitalize on the potential bounce. 🌐 Macro Factors Supporting the Trade: - Economic Resilience: Recent data shows that the German economy is demonstrating resilience amid global uncertainties, boosting investor confidence. - ECB Monetary Policy: The European Central Bank's accommodative stance continues to support liquidity in the markets, which is positive for equities. - Political Developments: Speculation around leadership changes, such as discussions about President Macron's position, might lead to increased investor optimism in European markets. - Global Market Sentiment: A general shift towards risk-on sentiment globally can propel the GER40 higher. 📝 Note: Trading always carries risk. While the setup aligns with both technical and macroeconomic factors, unforeseen events can impact the outcome. Stay vigilant and adjust your strategy as needed. Let's monitor this trade and see how it plays out. Feel free to share your thoughts or any insights you might have!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Fondera
DAX, 20K or 18473, both scenario possibleI´m expecting a major breakout towards 20K or a test of 18473 level. There is a volatility squeeze clearly visible on 1D chart. Personally I think that the first move will be a false one and the market will move the opposite direction, so be careful with the entry and do not FOMO. Try to trade the retests combined with CHOC, BOD on lower TF. If-when entry conditions for long or short trade are met, I will try to update this idea. Wish you good luck.
XETR:DAX
by Rendon1
DAX 40 Index Closes Above 20,000 for the First TimeDAX 40 Index Closes Above 20,000 for the First Time On 24 October, we noted that the DAX 40 stock index (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) was losing bullish momentum and could break downward from the Bearish Rising Wedge pattern (marked with black lines). Since then, as indicated by the orange arrow on the DAX 40 chart: → The price dropped below the pattern. → It found support at the psychological level of 19,000, which had previously acted as resistance (marked by arrows). → The price then rose to a historic high, breaking the 20,000 level. Interestingly, the index has risen despite media reports stating: → The IFO Business Climate Index has fallen for the fifth consecutive month. → The German Services PMI has remained below 50.0. New data released today confirms that economic weakness is spreading beyond the manufacturing sector. The bullish sentiment may be driven by the weakening euro, which makes German export-oriented companies more attractive to investors. Today, the chart of the German stock index DAX 40 (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) indicates that the stock market may be overbought: → The RSI indicator is at its highest level since May. → The price is near the upper boundary of the channel (marked with purple lines), constructed from key reversal points in autumn 2024. Given these factors, it seems plausible that a correction could be forming under the current conditions. After the rally that started in late November, the DAX 40 index (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) may decline towards the former resistance level of 19,700. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:GDAXIM
by FXOpen
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Short Position (Discretionary) Rationale : - Overextension: The GER40 index appears significantly overextended without substantial fundamental support. - Rising German Bond Yields: An increase in German government bond yields suggests a shift towards higher borrowing costs, potentially impacting equity valuations. - MACD Divergence: A notable divergence between the MACD indicator and price action indicates a weakening bullish momentum, often preceding a trend reversal. - CVD Divergence: Divergence in the Cumulative Volume Delta points to a disparity between buying and selling pressures, signaling a potential downturn. Trade Details : - Position: Short GER40 via market order - Risk Management: - Risk per Trade: 1% of trading capital - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2 Note: This trade is discretionary and anticipates a sharp correction at market open. Despite the lack of a formal signal, the confluence of technical indicators and macroeconomic factors supports this decision.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
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OANDA:DE30EURLong
by Thief_Trader
Sell your GER40. Short long-term setup.The GER40 index is currently in a critical phase, with a key sell zone identified between 20,150 and 20,200. Traders looking to short this area could have a favorable long-term setup, with a target price of around 19,000 by January 2025. If the index breaks below this level, it may signal further weakness, paving the way for a larger bearish trend. Looking further ahead, by March 2025, if GER40 breaks the 18,900 curvature, it will trigger a major shorting opportunity. This could open up the path for a deeper decline, with a potential target of 16,300 by November-December 2025, as the index could enter a prolonged downtrend. However, staying above the 19,000 area is critical. If GER40 maintains support above this zone, it could form a bullish cycle, with a potential turnaround in early 2026. A break higher in January 2026 could signal the start of a smaller bullish trend, offering an opportunity for recovery after a period of extended weakness. Overall, the outlook for GER40 is shaped by the movement around 20,150-20,200. The direction it takes from this key level will dictate whether the index enters a bearish phase or potentially sets the stage for a long-term recovery.
FUSIONMARKETS:GER40Short
by QuantumFusionWave
3