NVDA When the Dome is Pierced but the Crowd Doesn’t Cheer.NVDA pierced the dome. But the market didn’t roar—just whispered.
You’d expect prices to leap on headlines like “hyperscalers buying hundreds of thousands of H100s and B200s.” But instead, we’ve seen price hesitations… rejection wicks… and a quiet fade into the resistance box.
That’s the tell.
The “bull case” is loud—CoreWeave, Meta, and Microsoft are all investing capex in datacenter growth.
Headlines scream demand.
Analysts raise price targets.
AI buildout is the macro story.
And yet… NVDA can’t sustain above 137.
Technically, this is what I'm seeing:
A clear inverted dome pattern—price pierced through, but volume didn’t confirm.
Rejection within the gray box: 134–137 remains a trap zone.
Rising wedge structure beneath, with weakening RSI momentum.
Key levels to watch:
137.50: Failure here confirms the fakeout.
134.28: break below, and the dome reasserts control.
130.64: losing this brings 119.59 into play—fast.
Fundamentally, the risk is timing:
Much of the demand for NVDA’s next-gen chips is already pre-booked.
Margins on the newer nodes may face pressure.
The buyer base is concentrated: a few hyperscalers dictate 80% of the flow.
If AI expectations plateau—even temporarily—valuation multiple compression is severe.
And then there’s the macro:
10Y and 30Y yields are pushing higher after a soft CPI print.
Moody’s downgrade lingers in the background.
Japan’s bond market is wobbling.
The bond lords are watching—and if they whisper “not at these yields”, risk assets will reprice.
This isn’t about fear. It’s about understanding silence.
When the loudest news doesn’t move price, something else is pulling strings.
Positioning note:
I hold puts. 5 contracts. Small size, but high conviction setup.
This isn’t just about charts—it’s about recognizing when perception has outpaced inflow, and when liquidity begins to vote.
The dome was pierced.
But without volume, it’s just vapor.
And when vapor meets gravity, price falls—silently.
