NVDA Looks Ready to Pop – Here’s What I’m Watching 👀
Alright, I’ve been eyeing NVDA this week, and the setup is actually pretty clean across multiple timeframes. Let me break down what I’m seeing and what I’m thinking going into the next few sessions.
🧠 My Thought Process
So on the daily, NVDA’s been slowly crawling its way up underneath this big descending trendline. It hasn’t broken out yet, but the way it’s holding higher lows and pressing toward the top of that wedge tells me it’s gearing up. MACD’s starting to curl up, Stoch RSI is lifting — I just get the sense this thing doesn’t want to stay boxed in much longer.
I zoomed into the 1-hour, and you can see it’s still respecting that upward trendline. Price pulled back a bit but didn’t break structure — in fact, it bounced and started reclaiming some levels fast. 114–115 is the zone I’m watching. If we clear that with some conviction, I’m leaning bullish for a quick move toward 117–119.
📊 Options Flow / GEX View
Now this part gets interesting. GEX is showing some heavy call interest around 115, and that’s where we’re hovering right now. If we push above and hold, the next big call wall sits at 119, and then you’ve got the Gamma Resistance wall at 120 — that could trigger a fast pop if market makers have to start hedging aggressively.
On the flip side, HVL is at 110, so if we reject again at 115, we might get a flush down toward that level.
🛠️ How I’m Thinking About Trading It
If we break and hold over 115
→ I’ll consider grabbing some short-dated calls (maybe 117c or 119c for this week), but I’ll only size in if volume confirms.
→ Also might just scalp commons for a move to 118–120.
→ Stop would be below 112.5 or the 1H trendline.
If we reject 115 and lose 113
→ I’ll wait for confirmation, but I’d consider puts targeting that 110 HVL level. Not gonna force it though — want to see the trend shift first.
Final Thoughts
Not trying to front-run this — just letting the levels play out. But NVDA is in a pressure cooker, and it won’t stay quiet for long. I’ll be watching that 115 level closely. Above it, I’m bullish with targets at 117–119. If it stalls, I’ll sit back and wait to see if it gives a better entry off a pullback.
Let me know if you’re trading this too or seeing something different. Always down to compare notes.
Not financial advice — just walking through what I’m seeing and how I’d play it.
NVD trade ideas
NVDA Rallying After Trump Roundtable – Will the Momentum Hold? 💥Today’s rally in NASDAQ:NVDA got a little extra fuel after CEO Jensen Huang spoke at Trump’s investor roundtable. From what I’m seeing on the chart, the market liked it—at least in the short term.
Let me walk you through what I’m thinking as I line up the Daily vs. 1H timeframes and weigh that against options sentiment from the GEX chart.
🕰 Daily Chart View:
Price is trying to recover inside a downtrend channel, and today’s candle is testing the breakdown zone around $110–113. Momentum is definitely building, with MACD ticking higher and Stoch RSI pushing into bullish territory. But... we’re still technically below a key breakdown trendline (starting from the $150+ level), so bulls need continuation soon or it risks another fade.
⏱ 1H Chart Analysis:
The 1-hour chart looks a lot more bullish than the daily. After breaking through $107, NVDA exploded through key levels and is now pressing against $113.96 (GEX Gamma Wall) below. That’s also the highest net positive GEX level, so we could be entering a zone of dealer hedging that resists more upside unless flows get really aggressive.
You’ll also notice IVX is elevated (58.2), IVR is low (34.8), and GEX is neutral to slightly green. There’s a CALL-heavy structure forming up to $115, with the market currently coiling beneath it.
🔁 My Thought Process:
I think the CEO's participation in the Trump investor meeting gave institutions some reassurance, and that may explain the sharp bounce from $107. However, unless we can hold above $114 and squeeze into $115–$117, I see this as more of a trader’s move than a longer-term breakout just yet.
🎯 Trade Setup Idea:
* For Calls: Wait for a clean break above $114 → potential target zone: $117–120. Stops below $110.
* For Puts: If price fails again near $113.50–114 and we see weakness into the afternoon, watch for $110 → $107 retrace.
* Neutral: If we chop under the Gamma Wall and IV remains high, premiums may decay fast — sit out unless a clean direction emerges.
🧠 Final Thoughts:
I’ll stay flexible. GEX shows us $113.96 is the tug-of-war zone right now, and if bulls can reclaim and hold above it with volume, we could shift toward a gamma squeeze. But I’m also aware it might be a fade if the momentum stalls now that the Trump headline is digested.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
NVDA, CONFIRMED BAT, SWING TRADEWait for PA to pullback to VWAP after recent advance (100). VWAP may provide a good entry for a swing to TP2. Good risk to reward, stop just below lower band (light blue) loss = 1% of acct. 30% profit taking at TP1, exit at TP2 or if PA closes under TP1 after hitting TP1.
NVDA LTFLocal price action - the gap from 4/29 was filled in, but it left another gap on 4/30. During aftermarket hours, the price jumped up and approached the weekly level above but got rejected and finished the day red. We got a naked untapped pivot point below along with the range POC point of control.. not a bad week of price action.
From a range perspective price deviated to both sides and finisheded the day seemingly falling back into range. Let's see how the week ends.
NVDIA Death Cross Quant Perspectives (Light Case Study)NASDAQ: Nvidia (NVDA ) has recently experienced an uptrend after a death cross formed consisting of the 65 and 200 EMAs on the 1 Day chart.
If we analyze back on Nvidia starting in 1999 , we can count a total of 10 death crosses that have occurred, and 9 have been immediately followed by downtrends. Although a single death cross did not have an immediate downtrend, shortly after this event (approx. 282 days) another death cross formed and price then fell roughly twice as it historically has , almost appearing to make up for the missed signal.
From a quantitative perspective:
If we calculate the raw historical success rate using:
Raw Success Rate = 9/10 = 90
With this calculation the observed success of 65/200 EMA death crosses correlating to an immediate downtrend is 90%
In order to avoid overconfidence we can apply Laplace smoothing using:
Smoothed Probability = 9+1/10+2 = 10/12 or 0.8333
With this calculation the observed success of 65/200 EMA death crosses correlating to an immediate downtrend is 83%
Given the results of the data I personally feel that there is a Very High (83%) chance this death cross that recently formed on the 1 Day chart (around 04/16/2025) will immediately lead to a downtrend. And a Low (17%) chance it does not. Furthermore these results support a technical analysis hypothesis that I formed prior.
Many different systemic factors can contribute to the market movement, but mathematics sometimes leave subtle clues. Will the market become bearish? Or will Nvidia gain renewed bullish interest?
Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice.
NVDA – Losing Steam After Hitting ResistanceNVDA had been steadily climbing in a rising channel for the past few days, bouncing neatly off that lower trendline and giving bulls a reason to stay engaged. But today it finally lost that trendline — and to me, that’s a subtle but important shift in control. Buyers didn’t defend like they had before.
The rejection from the $111–$112 zone wasn’t random either. That area has been a sticky level on the daily chart — a prior swing high and also where a heavy Gamma Call Wall sits based on options data. Price tapped it, hesitated, and rolled over. Now with this break of structure on the 1-hour timeframe, I’m starting to lean cautious.
Momentum is fading. MACD is curling down and looks ready to cross bearish. Stoch RSI is already bottomed out, but there’s no bounce signal yet — just drifting in oversold. It feels like bulls are waiting, but not stepping in aggressively anymore.
On the daily chart, this entire push still looks like a lower high within a broader downtrend. And with price now back near $106.70, it’s hanging just above that key $105 level — which is not only a horizontal support zone but also lines up with a High Volume Level and a major GEX magnet. If that breaks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see price gravitate toward $102 or even the $100 level where the Put Wall sits heavy.
🔧 Trade Setup Ideas
* Short Bias below $108: If NVDA stays below the broken channel, I’m leaning bearish. A clean rejection near $108–$109 offers a good risk/reward for short entries.
* Target: $105 first, then $102. Stop above $109.50.
* Long only if price reclaims the trendline and closes above $111 with volume. That would negate the breakdown and could signal a squeeze back toward $115.
🧠 Options Perspective (GEX-Informed)
* Put Play Idea: Buying a $105 Put for May 3rd expiry (0–3 DTE) could work if price flushes below $106.70. IV is still elevated, but the IV crush risk is smaller on directional moves.
* Gamma Roadmap:
* $105 = High Volume Node + HVL
* $102 = Strong Put Wall (7.5% GEX support)
* $100 = Final magnet if things really unwind
* Call Side Risk: Unless NVDA cleanly reclaims $111, calls above that level are a trap. A bounce back to $110 would be a fade zone unless momentum shifts.
So in short — the trendline broke, bulls are on their heels, and $105 is the level to watch. Until something changes, I’m favoring downside plays but being patient for cleaner setups.
Not advice — just sharing my thinking as I trade what I see.
HOW-TO: Use the Camarilla Pivots & BBT Strategies indicatorThis how-to shows the Camarilla Pivot & BBT Strategies indicator in action, the 5-minute timeframe is ideal for this. It shows the price action reacting to the HA play (S3 to R3 traversal). The "H" means that the ticker is in a Higher range on this day, the "A" refers to the label on the strategy in the image. In fact, the price does past R3 (which is the exit point) and reaches R4, at which point it trigger the "E" play, which is an R4 extreme reversal. A great trade, if you took it!
Nvidia Prepares For New All-Time High, Last Chance To Buy Low!The market always gives as second chance. This is a phrase that I love to share and it is true, it is confirmed here on this very chart.
The action for NVDA moved back down to produce a higher low —your second and last chance. This higher low is happening within a very strong buy-zone and this can mean the difference between massive profits or an opportunity that is lost. From here on, Nvidia will grow long-term set to produce a new All-Time High in the coming months.
The minimum target and price level for this rise stands around ~150 within 1-3 months. Then a correction and then higher, much higher... Up, up and up go we.
I can entertain you with tons of details I have the ability but I will not do so. I will go straight to the point.
» The next All-Time High and main target for this wave is 194, this can take a little more, or less, than 6 months.
What will happen next, we will have to wait to ask the chart.
It is my pleasure to write for you again.
Make sure to boost if you would like more updates.
If you boost and comment, we can move to daily updates as the market grow.
Go in, go now, buy-in and go LONG!
Nvidia is going up! Together with Bitcoin and the Altcoins.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
The Case for NVDA to 40As a prereq to this post it would be good to read my post on SMCI. In that I link to all the real time forecasts in SMCI of the methods we're using for the NVDA forecast.
And somewhat lay the groundwork for this post.
Click the post to read in full.
===#
So let's start with the big overview. NVDA for a long time has been trading inside of the risk zone for the end of wave.
Here's a forecast on NVDA when it was 500 (pre split)in which I mapped out the full extension of an Elliot wave.
Click the post to read in full.
In that post based on the assumption the previous rally was wave one we could make a forecast of a rally to around 800 - 900 and then some head fake action above 1,000.
I also put fibs on the chart and showed how this move would be a breaking of the 1.61 and a full extension to the 4.23.
As you can see, we're now sitting right at that big 4.23 level I brought up back in 2024.
Here's the thing spoken of in the SMCI top.
In that post I spoke about the tendency for move to end on spike outs of the 4.23 and they can make full retracements all the way to the 1.27 (or worse, in some cases - that's the bull setup).
The 4.23 is a big decision point. If NVDA held the 4.23 as support I'd be insanely bullish on this for the next couple years ahead. It'd be a huge win for the bulls I'd think.
However, if that was a head fake over the 4.23, you've seen the best you'll see from NVDA for a while. Indeed, we would be very close to entering the worst you've seen from it.
Bearish Continuation in PlayAfter an extended distribution phase near the premium zone and a clear break of the ascending channel, NVDA has shifted into a bearish market structure.
Price is currently pulling back into a key supply zone and retesting the bearish trendline. If this area holds, we could see further downside movement with the following targets:
🔻 $88.47 – potential support and short-term consolidation area.
🔻 $41.79 – medium-term target if bearish momentum continues and support breaks.
This bearish outlook remains valid as long as price stays below $153.99, which marks the invalidation level and the potential start of a bullish reversal.
🔍 Market structure is showing consistent lower highs and lower lows, confirming bearish pressure.
NVIDIANVIDIA Corp engages in the design and manufacture of computer graphics processors, chipsets, and related multimedia software. It operates through the following segments: Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), Tegra Processor, and All Other. The GPU segment comprises of product brands, which aims specialized markets including GeForce for gamers; Quadro for designers; Tesla and DGX for AI data scientists and big data researchers; and GRID for cloud-based visual computing users. The Tegra Processor segment integrates an entire computer onto a single chip, and incorporates GPUs and multi-core CPUs to drive supercomputing for autonomous robots, drones, and cars, as well as for consoles and mobile gaming and entertainment devices. The All Other segment refers to the stock-based compensation expense, corporate infrastructure and support costs, acquisition-related costs, legal settlement costs, and other non-recurring charges. The company was founded by Jen Hsun Huang, Chris A. Malachowsky, and Curtis R. Priem in January 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.
Most people are saying $50... I think $65 after a little bounceI am seeing put open interest and volume spike for PUTS expiring 04/25 for a strike price of $55 that were opened YESTERDAY...
There is over 60,000 contracts open and rarely do these not play out.
It has been my long term target to hit $65 - $60 even before NVDA split there shares.
Lets see tho, the tape for options expiring in late June look bullish at the moment
Nvidia next possible move Hi traders what is your suggestion on this one?am looking at this bullish pennant and I believe it can breakes anytime soon note that this market is been controlled by economics n geopolitical this year soo far since Trump took the office he started trade war globally is not about who knows too much n who don't that's why you findout that things are going bek to were it was after tarrif is pause by that am saying everything we planned n analyst were good n moving accordingly until trade war started,that's the reason we don't only depend in analysis but in everything that is going on around the world wars,diseases n many more things does change very fast just make sure you are updated,soo I suggest you toom advantage of one company to own while they are pulling back don't fight with your mind mag 7 stocks they are all uptrend market don't be confused,understand pull back n were market is trending 😊 I wish you a profitable week
NVIDIA Chart with Advance Smart TP, SL, and EMA Trailing"Technical Analysis of This New Chart (NVIDIA 15-min, Heikin Ashi)
Setup:
Entry: 105.23
Forecast EMA: 103.02 (trending nicely upwards under the price = bullish support)
🧠 Key Observations:
The Forecast EMA result varies based on your settings and the selected chart timeframe."
Stop Loss: 99.97 (tight but safe under previous consolidation zone)
Take Profits:
TP1: 110.50 ✅
TP2: 115.76 ✅
TP3: 121.02 ✅
🧠 Key Observations:
Strong Breakout: You caught the move perfectly after a big consolidation phase (accumulation area visible).
Healthy Pullback: Small pullback after TP2 — healthy behavior, not a sharp reversal yet.
Forecast EMA Position: Price is well above Forecast EMA (103.02), and EMA is rising ➔ very bullish.
🛡️ Upgraded Trade Management Plan (for this chart):
1. If still holding the trade:
✅ Stop Loss Adjustment:
Now that TP1 (110.50) was hit, you should move Stop Loss up to your Entry (105.23) ➔ You are now risk-free.
2. Partial Take Profits Plan:
🎯 At TP2 (115.76):
➔ Sell 50% of remaining position.
➔ Activate a trailing stop for the rest.
🎯 At TP3 (121.02):
➔ Let the trailing stop follow.
➔ Tighten the trail after every new 15-min high is broken.
3. Trailing Stop Strategy After TP2:
📈 Trail the stop 2 bars behind the most recent swing low on the 15-min chart.
Example: If a candle makes a higher high and a higher low ➔ move stop 2 candles back to protect gains.
✍️ Special Notes:
If price suddenly drops and closes a full 15-min candle below Forecast EMA (103.02), it’s a sign momentum is weakening — you may want to close manually if that happens instead of risking trailing stop whipsaws.
Heikin Ashi candles make it easier to spot strong trends — watch for small-bodied candles (like dojis) at TP2/TP3 ➔ potential reversal signals.
CORRECTED. NVDA HEADING INTO MAY 25'Still Bearish.
Clear top and been working down ever since
Yet another reject near the .382 FIB LEVEL, which was a reload zone in Q3 and Q4 of 2024.. now a sell zone since Q2 25' began as its cooled off from ATH to end 24 and begin 25.
Looking to buy @ .236 & lower.
Would not take a BUY higher until a break & hold above .5 to confirm some strength to an upside move.
NVDA overall as a company is going to be a powerhouse in multiple spaces in the future, we can all see that. It's not going anywhere and has multiple huge investments to push its industry hold even higher and revenue down the line to increase.
Their wide range of partnerships within the autonomous driving space with companies like GM, Toyota, TSLA (for its chips) and more position NVDA to be one of, if the not THE the largest market cap companies within the next 10 years to me.
Autonomous driving I personally feel will begin to make its way to a MAINSTREAM space beginning around 2030 and by 2030 will have an extreme space in day to day by 2035.
Long term vision beats short term gain!
Trading the Impulse Rally Retracement — Price and Time Symmetry Trend is observed from an impulse run’s lowest/highest point and projected outwards in symmetrical fibonacci retracement via price/time from the first reversal candle to the end of the rally, creating crosshairs. These ‘crosshairs’ visually represent the trending ‘price distribution projection’ in price/time symmetry.
Using this concept, I draw a ‘projection trend line’ from the bottom or top of the impulse run thru the projected 78.6% price/time retracement value, to identify the price distribution structure in a linear form.
Now to introduce my STOP LOSS TRIANGLE.
This is a concept of decaying price and time as an underlying move towards our theoretical projection, where if the underlying enters our built faded cross-section, the SL is triggered to avoid sideways consolidation and decaying contract premiums.
This ‘right’ triangle that is ‘sclene’ by nature is created by taking the furthest projection in price/time symmetry (78.6%) and drawing a vertically placed straight line to the highest/lowest point in the rally previously identified. Here, I create a ‘right triangle’ by turning 90 degrees towards my final point, which is made by the nearest projection in price/time symmetry (38.2%). In its entirety, this forms the stop loss triangle.
Come follow me on X @askHVtobidIV for more!
CHEERS!
Bad News from NVDA and ASML Put Pressure on AI StocksTwo pieces of bad news hit the chip sector in a single day.
First, the U.S. announced new restrictions on Nvidia, blocking the sale of its H20 chip to China. H20 was the only AI chip Nvidia could legally sell to China under existing regulations. The company stated the new restrictions could cost up to $5.5 billion.
The second blow came from ASML’s earnings report. ASML is the sole producer of EUV machines, which are critical for manufacturing advanced chips, including those used in AI. ASML's revenue miss, combined with the Nvidia news, weighed heavily on technology stocks. However, there is a silver lining: the revenue miss was due to weaker DUV machine sales, which are used for more basic chips. EUV sales actually beat market expectations by 33.54%, indicating that investment in AI infrastructure remains strong.
Nvidia shares are down more than 6% in premarket trading. This downward pressure may continue after the market opens. If the price drops below 100, it could present a buying opportunity for medium- to long-term investors. AI investment continues globally, and countries outside the U.S. are likely to accelerate their efforts to catch up. Despite the recent negative sentiment, there is no major change in the long-term outlook for the sector.
$NVDA forming local higher low and above 20-Day SMA NASDAQ:NVDA has traded very poorly recently. Today we are looking at a daily price chart of NASDAQ:NVDA and we have seen many lower lows and lower highs since GTC Conference. After touching the ATH of 150 $, the price is making new lows and has recently touched the lows of 85 $ and made new higher low of 95 $. So, this marks a double higher bottom and now the at 105 $ is now above 20 Day SMA. This might mark a bullish reversal in my opinion.
So why not a trade idea on a Friday. #TGIF. I say we go long NASDAQ:NVDA here and now. Remain long if it remains over the 50-Day, 100-Day and 200-Day SMA. 200-Day SMA ist currently @ 125 $. If NVDA has a weekly close above 125 $ then we go all in on $NVDA.
Verdict: Long NASDAQ:NVDA here until 125 $. Keep watching this space for next levels.