Nvidia Drops 9%+ Amid Export Curbs and Fed WarningNvidia Corporation (NVDA) saw its stock fall by 9.18%, trading at $101.68 as renewed fears over U.S.-China trade tensions and monetary policy signals shook investor confidence. The decline came after the company confirmed costly new restrictions on chip exports to China, intensifying market concerns about long-term demand and global supply chain disruptions.
The broader market reacted sharply to these developments. The Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 4.3%, while the S&P 500 shed around 3.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also lost more than 900 points, a drop of about 2.2%. Contributing further to the sell-off, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered remarks in Chicago, stating that the central bank would “wait for greater clarity” before making interest rate changes.
Powell highlighted the conflicting effects of tariffs, warning that they could bring “higher inflation and slower growth,” placing the Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and full employment under pressure. These comments, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty, pushed stocks to session lows.
Technical Analysis
Nvidia's price action shows a notable rebound from a major support zone near $92, which has historically attracted strong buying interest. Despite Wednesday’s sharp drop, the price trades above this level, suggesting traders are still defending it.
The next key resistance lies at $153.13, a level that capped previous rallies. If Nvidia breaks above this zone, it could signal a bullish continuation, potentially leading to a move toward new all-time highs. However, rejection at this point could trigger a pullback, with a possible retest of the $92 support.
The Relative Strength Index stands at 41, indicating a close to average momentum. This positions Nvidia at a crossroads, where upcoming price action around the resistance will determine the near-term trend.
NVD trade ideas
NVDA TO $176 BY JUNE THEN $1000 END OF YEARNVDA to $176 by June Then $1000 End of Year: A Bold Thesis
Key Points
It seems likely that NVDA could reach $176 by June 2025, supported by strong AI market trends and upcoming earnings, but reaching $1000 by year-end is highly speculative and controversial.
Research suggests Elliott Wave analysis shows a potential bullish trend, but specific price targets like $1000 lack broad analyst support.
The evidence leans toward significant growth potential due to NVDA's leadership in AI and new product launches, yet such aggressive targets involve high uncertainty.
Current Price and Market Context
As of April 9, 2025, NVDA's closing price on April 8 was $96.30, with pre-market trading at $98.22. This reflects recent volatility, with a 52-week range from $75.61 to $153.13. The stock's performance is tied to its dominance in AI and GPU markets, which are experiencing robust growth.
Analysis for $176 by June
Reaching $176 by June 2025, an 83% increase from $96.30, is ambitious but plausible. Upcoming earnings on May 28, 2025, estimate an EPS of $0.93 and revenue of $43.34 billion, with potential beats driving price surges. Elliott Wave analysis suggests NVDA may be completing a corrective phase, with a falling wedge pattern indicating a possible upward breakout, supporting short-term targets around $176.
Analysis for $1000 by Year-End
The prediction of $1000 by December 2025, a 940% increase, is highly speculative. While some analyses, like a Forbes article, suggest NVDA could see a tenfold rise by 2026 due to the Blackwell architecture, most analyst targets range from $170 to $235. This target lacks broad support and involves significant market and fundamental risks.
Unexpected Detail: Stock Split Impact
An unexpected factor is NVDA's 10-for-1 stock split in June 2024, adjusting prices from over $1,000 to current levels, making historical comparisons complex. This split aligns the $1000 target with post-split valuations, but achieving it requires unprecedented growth.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of NVDA's Potential Price Surge to $176 by June and $1000 by Year-End
Introduction
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), a leader in graphics processing units (GPUs) and artificial intelligence (AI), is currently trading at approximately $96.30 as of April 9, 2025, based on the closing price from April 8, with pre-market activity showing a slight uptick to $98.22. This analysis explores the feasibility of NVDA reaching $176 by June 2025 and an ambitious $1000 by the end of the year, leveraging Elliott Wave theory and other validated analytical methods. Given the stock's recent performance and market context, we examine technical patterns, fundamental catalysts, and long-term growth potential.
Current Market Position and Historical Context
NVDA's stock has shown volatility, with a 52-week range from $75.61 to $153.13, and a year-to-date change of -11.36% over the past week and -12.23% over the past month, per recent data. The all-time high was $153.13 on January 6, 2025, indicating significant upside potential from current levels. The market capitalization stands at $2.35 trillion, with a beta of 2.40, reflecting high volatility. Key financial metrics include an EBITDA of $83.32 billion and an EBITDA margin of 63.85%, underscoring strong profitability.
A critical context is the 10-for-1 stock split in June 2024, which adjusted share prices from over $1,000 to current levels, making historical comparisons complex. This split, detailed in a CNBC article (Nvidia announces 10-for-1 stock split), was aimed at making ownership more accessible, aligning with the user's post-split price targets of $176 and $1000.
Metric Value
Closing Price (Apr 8) $96.30 USD
Pre-Market Price (Apr 9) $98.22 USD
52-Week Range $75.61 - $153.13 USD
Market Cap $2.35T USD
Beta (1Y) 2.40
Earnings Next Report May 28, 2025, EPS Estimate $0.93, Revenue Estimate $43.34B USD
Last Quarter EPS $0.89 (estimated $0.85, +4.96% surprise)
Dividend Yield (TTM) 0.04%
Elliott Wave Analysis: Technical Insights
Elliott Wave theory, a method identifying market psychology through wave patterns, suggests NVDA may be in a corrective phase, potentially completing wave (4) of a larger five-wave structure. Recent analyses, such as those on TradingView (NVIDIA Stock Chart), indicate a falling wedge or ending diagonal formation, often signaling a reversal and start of an upward trend. This could support a move to $176 by June, as wave (5) projections often extend to 1.618 times wave (1), potentially aligning with such targets.
Specific Elliott Wave analyses, like those from ElliottWave-Forecast (Elliott Wave Expects New All Time High), suggest NVDA has completed corrections and is resuming higher, with wave counts indicating impulsive rallies. However, these analyses lack explicit price targets reaching $1000, focusing more on trend continuations.
Short-Term Target: $176 by June 2025
Reaching $176 by June 2025, an 83% increase from $96.30, is ambitious but supported by several factors. The earnings report on May 28, 2025, is a critical catalyst, with estimates for EPS at $0.93 and revenue at $43.34 billion. Given NVDA's history of beating estimates, as seen in the last quarter with EPS of $0.89 against an estimate of $0.85, a strong report could drive significant price appreciation.
Technical indicators, such as a breakout from the falling wedge, align with this target. Analyst price targets, ranging from $125 to $220 with an average of $177.19 per Zacks (NVIDIA Price Target), also support the possibility, with some forecasts reaching $235.92 (NVDA Forecast). However, achieving this in two months requires sustained bullish momentum and favorable market conditions.
Long-Term Target: $1000 by Year-End 2025
The prediction of $1000 by December 2025, a 940% increase from current levels, is highly speculative. Most analyst forecasts, such as those from MarketBeat (NVIDIA Stock Forecast) and TipRanks (Nvidia Stock Forecast), range from $170 to $235, far below $1000. However, a Forbes article from May 25, 2024 (Nvidia Stock Tops $1,000), suggests NVDA could see a tenfold rise by 2026 due to the Blackwell architecture, potentially supporting a $1000 target by late 2025 if growth accelerates.
Blackwell, a new GPU architecture, is expected to enhance NVDA's AI and data center offerings, potentially driving revenue growth. CoinCodex forecasts a high of $260.32 by December 2025 (NVIDIA Stock Forecast), still below $1000, indicating the target is outlier and involves significant risk. Market volatility, competition, and macroeconomic factors, such as tariff impacts noted in CNN reports (NVDA Stock Quote), add uncertainty.
Fundamental Catalysts and Risks
NVDA's fundamentals are strong, with consistent revenue growth and high EBITDA margins. The company's expansion into AI, autonomous systems, and supercomputers, as noted in LiteFinance (Nvidia Stock Price Prediction), supports long-term growth. However, short-term corrections due to overvaluation or market sentiment, especially around tariff concerns, pose risks.
X posts, such as one from @1000xStocks (X post), highlight NVDA's EPS growth reflecting AI monetization, suggesting bullish sentiment, but lack specific $1000 targets. Another from @ravisRealm (X post) notes adding positions at lower prices, indicating confidence but not supporting the $1000 target.
Conclusion
While reaching $176 by June 2025 is plausible with strong earnings and technical breakouts, the $1000 target by year-end is highly speculative, lacking broad analyst support and requiring unprecedented growth. Investors should monitor earnings reports, product launches like Blackwell, and market trends, while employing risk management strategies given the high uncertainty.
Most people are saying $50... I think $65 after a little bounceI am seeing put open interest and volume spike for PUTS expiring 04/25 for a strike price of $55 that were opened YESTERDAY...
There is over 60,000 contracts open and rarely do these not play out.
It has been my long term target to hit $65 - $60 even before NVDA split there shares.
Lets see tho, the tape for options expiring in late June look bullish at the moment
Next term.In my opinion, the uptrend was already over before the trade wars started.
* The purpose of my graphic drawings is purely educational.
* What i write here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose your money.
Phase 4 broken, the hyperwave will be completedWe've seen this cycle across more or less in all kinds of assets. the MAG7 is no exception. As today, we've broken down from Phase 4, despise you like it or not, once these structures break down, PA(price action) will always find its way back to its true fair value.
Already called it, but this time, we get a closer look towards the TA in NVDA.
Sequentials are settled in, we're going for a 9 monthly count of sequential bars down, the intensity of the moves is yet to be known, but alas, we will have to look at SMA's and the range of the monthly Linear Regression, they all have supports around 80, 40, 20.
And as usual, be safe, don't long this.
NVDA rebound after PANIC SELLING
This idea is a perfect example of how the market gives you different signs at the reversal points.
Let's recap from the beginning:
1. First, there was the CRACK pattern of the support, which warns of a bearish move.
2. There was an attempt to go higher which did not work out.
3. There was a GAP DOWN, that needed to materialize the CRACK pattern to the downside, but it did not act right, and did not spill right away and there was a bounce above the broken pink support line.
4. After #3, you would expect a Bullish move, the BLUE trajectory, since #3 acted as a real-time lookalike of a SPRING by Wyckoff methodology. But the BLUE did not materialize, so it did not "act right" according to Jesse Livermore.
5. When we started going down again on wider and wider bearish candles, this confirms again the CRACK PATTERN.
What is the CRACK PATTERN?
The crack pattern is when there is a CLEAR support/resistance line, that has been "cracked", but then there is a "retest" a false move, to the other side, as if the CRACK is the false move, but the CRACK signifies the upcoming strong move. Once the CRACK is being CRACKED again, the big explosive move should come.
6. The CRACK pattern materialized, and we got the spilldown = STRONG SHORT MOVE.
7. See my educational idea about this CRACK PATTERN, as "found" before the fact, this time it was more tricky than usual since it did not follow "the right way" as right away as usually happens on a weaker stock since NVDA has a bullish outlook. So it "put out a fight. Or in the puppet master view... if the public want to buy higher before the fall... there is no reason to sell him lower... so the price rebound and the fall did not materialized right away.
8. The moral lesson from this, is that in realtime, you need to change your hypothesis as you go. Once a signs for strong movement happen, then you want it to "ACT RIGHT". If it does not act the way you know, you need to quickly change your direction.
NVIDIA: Time for a Graphic Comeback?🔍Analysis:
Following up from a previous breakdown, NVIDIA has now tapped into a high-probability Weekly Order Block (OB) just above the sell-side liquidity zone at $88.97. This level also aligns with a structural area of support, making it a prime zone for a potential bullish reversal.
Key signs:
Price is showing early signs of displacement from the OB.
If this zone holds, we could be looking at a 77% move back up to the buyside liquidity at $157.92.
Watch for a strong weekly candle close above $96.30 to confirm the bounce.
🛑 Invalidation:
If price fails to hold this OB and breaks below $88.97, expect a deeper move into the $76.06 zone.
💡 Summary:
Patience is key. We’re sitting on a solid base for a potential bullish push — now it’s all about the confirmation candle. 📊
DYOR — Don't just HODL, study the chart!
NVDA Technical Analysis – April 9, 2025NVIDIA (NVDA) just got rejected at the top of a falling wedge channel on the 1H chart and is showing clear signs of continued bearish pressure. After testing a key resistance around the $102–$103 zone, price has sharply reversed and is now threatening to revisit lower trendline levels.
Market Structure & SMC Insight:
* NVDA remains in a strong downtrend with price confined in a descending wedge.
* There was no confirmed CHoCH (Change of Character) or BOS (Break of Structure) indicating strength—only a lower high rejection.
* A red resistance zone remains around $103.70, while major support lies around $86.74.
* MACD is curling down after a bearish cross.
* Stoch RSI is pointing lower from the mid-zone, signaling more downside may be ahead.
* Volume has increased on this rejection, giving the move more credibility.
TrendInfo Sentiment Summary:
* MA: Bearish (-2.21%)
* DMI: Bearish (38.33)
* RSI, MACD, Stoch: All showing bearish confirmation.
* DPR (Directional Pressure Ratio): Bearish (43.5%)
* Fear & Greed: Fear (-15.78), overall Sell rating of 75%.
This suggests that short-term traders are risk-off and sentiment is skewed toward more downside.
Options GEX Analysis (Gamma Exposure & Sentiment):
* Current GEX shows strong PUT dominance at 28%, aligning with a bearish directional expectation.
* IV Rank (IVR) at 107.2 with IVx avg at 108.7 indicates high volatility; premiums are rich, great for credit spreads or directional put plays.
* Key Put Support at $90 with heavy GEX clustering below. This is your downside magnet.
* Call resistance sits near $102–$105 range, aligning with the recent rejection. Gamma walls at $108–$111 cap the upside.
Trade Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario:
* Rejection confirmed. If NVDA breaks $94 again, a fast drop to $90 and even $86 support is on the table.
* Put Options with strikes at $90 or debit spreads can work well.
* Watch for continuation volume confirmation.
Bullish Reversal Setup (Low Probability for Now):
* Needs a reclaim of $103.70 with volume.
* A CHoCH + strong bullish candle would trigger potential upside targets of $108 and $111.
* Call debit spreads or long shares only if reversal is confirmed.
My Thoughts: NVDA continues to reflect sector-wide weakness in semis. Without strong market support, the path of least resistance remains down. Given the macro volatility and sentiment tilt toward fear, it's wise to position conservatively and trade with tight risk.
Final Suggestion:
* Put Bias Active
* Avoid heavy call exposure unless reclaim of $103 occurs
* Sell premium if IV stays elevated (e.g. credit spreads)
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Cryptocurrency and Stocks will DecoupleI still remember the AI saying that NVDA was going to 320 "in the near future." This was back in June 2024. No matter when you asked the AI, its only prediction would be up, it couldn't make an analysis based on the data coming from the chart. The program wasn't very intelligent, that's what I concluded.
I disagreed. NVDA is going down and this is now fully confirmed.
We are seeing a very long distribution phase and the crash is now taking place.
Ok, but what about Bitcoin?
Bitcoin will decouple from traditional markets, just look at the news.
While Cryptocurrency is due a generational bullish wave, the stock market is due a generational retrace.
I honestly don't know how the stock market will perform but I can look at individual charts. NVDA is bearish and going down strong.
NVDA, TSLA, the SPX, the NDX and Crypto are not the same. These are two completely different monsters.
The SPX and NDX is landline.
Crypto is free wireless internet for all.
The SPX and the NDX is centralization and control.
Bitcoin is decentralization, innovation, technology and freedom.
Times change.
The stock market will recover and it is sure to continue growing long-term.
Will the establishment let it crash or will they jump in and pump it up?
I don't know. But NVDA is bearish and going down. What one does, the rest follows.
But, what about Bitcoin? Bitcoin is going up.
It is very simple. They will decouple, they will not move together anymore. Many, many Altcoins are trading at bottom prices, many stocks are trading high up.
The giant stocks will crash, while the Cryptocurrency market goes up. This is one more of the reasons why we are about to experience the biggest bull-market in the history of Crypto.
People are evolving, the world is changing. We are changing from centralized monopoly money, to a free decentralized technology that is available for all.
Money is not the paper, the shiny stone or the codes; money is what we decide to use for the purpose of exchanging value.
At one time, salt used to be money as well as cows. Sea shells, glass and cacao are also on the list. People used to use these things as money.
The argument that Bitcoin has no value is obviously flawed. If you want to buy a Bitcoin you have to pay a price, that's value, nothing more.
If we decide to use something as money, it becomes money.
Bitcoin is money for the new generation.
The old generation dies out and a new one takes its place.
Life will continue to evolve and money will do the same.
Now it is Bitcoin, later down the road it will be something else. But Bitcoin has value, it is really expensive and it will continue to grow.
After the crash, NVDA will recover for sure.
Namaste.
NVDA Slams into Key Gamma Wall After Tariff Shock. Cont. down?NVDA Slams into Key Gamma Wall After Tariff Shock – Breakdown or Bounce?
🧠 Macro Backdrop:
Today’s broad market sell-off was triggered by news of Trump proposing tariffs, sparking risk-off sentiment, especially in tech and semiconductors like NVDA. The fear of supply chain inflation and global trade disruption hit momentum stocks hard.
This news matters because:
* NVDA is a major global chip exporter.
* Tariffs = higher costs + weaker margins = bearish for NVDA fundamentals.
* Institutions are rapidly de-risking, confirmed by volume + options flow.
📊 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
Structure:
* NVDA broke back below the 108 support — now acting as resistance.
* Price is currently sitting around 104.13, probing the gamma support band and near a key demand level at 104–105.
* This level coincides with PUT Support and HVL zone, meaning dealers might defend here, if they aren’t forced to hedge further.
Trend:
* Short-term: Bearish.
* Price rejected from the 114–115 CALL wall cluster (Gamma Ceiling).
* Forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming distribution + breakdown structure.
🔥 GEX + Options Flow Analysis
Dealer Positioning:
* GEX: 🔴🔴 — strong negative gamma zone, meaning dealers short gamma and are selling into weakness.
* As price drops, dealers sell more → amplifying downside moves.
* Current GEX Setup:
* Highest positive NETGEX/Call Resistance at 114–115 → unlikely to reclaim this without catalyst.
* Put Support near 104.6, aligning with today’s bounce attempt.
Options Data:
* IVR: 23 → relatively low.
* IVx avg: 54.5 vs current IVx = 23 → volatility is still compressed despite crash.
* CALLS only 6.5% → very bearish skew.
* Put Wall at:
* 104.6 (support) — holding for now.
* 100 — if 104 breaks, this is the next magnet.
🧭 Trade Scenarios
🐻 Bearish Continuation:
* Trigger: Breakdown below 104 support zone.
* Target: 100 psychological + PUT Wall (high confluence).
* Stop: Close above 108.
* Notes: Watch for macro headlines to further accelerate this breakdown.
🐂 Relief Bounce Setup:
* Trigger: Strong bounce and reclaim of 108 with volume.
* Target: 110 → 112 retest (low probability unless sentiment shifts).
* Invalidation: New low below 104 with momentum.
📌 Commentary:
This chart perfectly reflects a dealer-driven gamma crash fueled by a macro catalyst. NVDA was already in a downtrend, and today’s tariff news created the conditions for:
* Breaking demand structure.
* Triggering delta hedging from dealers.
* Pushing price into low-liquidity zones near PUT walls.
The bounce off 104 may be short-lived unless macro fear eases.
⚠️ Final Take:
* Bias: Bearish below 108.
* If 104 breaks, look for a flush to 100.
* Volume confirms institutional exit, and options data shows dealers are selling rips, not buying dips.
📉 Trade Idea:
Buy PUTS (1–2 weeks out) if price rejects 108 retest.
Strike: 102P or 100P
Stop: SPOT above 109
Target: $100–$101 zone
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Head & Shoulders Pattern + 0.786 Fib + Gap WIndowThe measured move off the Head & Shoulders pattern presents a measured move target of $73 if price continues to fall on NVDA. The 0.786 Fib 0.786 retrace had a perfect touch on Friday. Expect a 11% bounce from the 0.786 to the gap fill above. Retrace target = 0.618 Fib. This would establish another Lower High. Trend still presents with downward momentum. Then, expect the next move down towards $75.04
NVIDIA About to TANK? Or Just Cooling Off?After one of the most explosive bull runs in tech history, NVIDIA is showing signs of exhaustion — and this chart’s screaming a massive correction incoming.
🧠 Chart Insights (2W Time Frame):
Current Price: ~$96.30
All-Time High: $152.89
Key Breakdown Levels:
🔵 Pullback Zone: $134.29 — Broken & Completed
🟠 Neckline Support: $90.69
🎯 Major Fibonacci Target: $66.25 (61.8% retracement)
💀 Extreme Support Zone: $10.81 (not likely unless disaster strikes, but chart says what it says...)
🔎 What’s Really Happening:
Bull run started October 2022 and went parabolic into late 2024
Price attempted to consolidate above $130–140 (pullback zone) but failed to hold
Bearish momentum confirmed as we’ve broken through key zones
We’re now headed straight toward the $90s neckline, with $66.25 as a Fibonacci target if trend continues
⚠️ Why This Matters:
This isn’t fear — it’s structure. Nvidia doesn’t have to collapse to zero, but even a healthy correction to $66 would be a 30%+ drawdown from current levels.
That would:
✅ Flush out weak hands
✅ Offer long-term buyers a better setup
✅ Rebalance the overextended rally from 2023–2024
👀 What to Watch:
Retest of $90.69 neckline
Reaction at the 61.8% retracement
Volume spikes on weekly red candles
If bulls don’t step in soon, this is just the beginning of the cooldown
📌 This is not financial advice — just chart surgery.
🔖 Hashtags:
#NVIDIA #NVDA #StockMarketCorrection #BearishStructure #TechStocks #TradingViewCharts #MarketMomentum #PriceAction #FibonacciAnalysis