$PLTR 50%+ decline ahead, $39-56 targetNASDAQ:PLTR looks like it's topping here and that it has a long road to the bottom.
If we continue to reject at this resistance, then it's likely that we'll at least see the $56 target on the downside, but I think the $44 target is the most likely area to see a bounce.
Bulls should enjoy a 50%+ drop from here. You've been warned.
PTX trade ideas
Palantir Added 40%+ Since April 7. What Does Its Chart Say?Counter-terrorism-software giant Palantir Technologies NASDAQ:PLTR rose more than 500% between April 2024 and its February 2025 peak, sank some 47% from there to its April low, then rebounded 47% intraday between April 7 and April 16. What does technical and fundamental analysis say could happen next?
Let’s take a look:
Palantir’s Fundamental Analysis
PLTR rose sharply last Monday and Tuesday (April 14-15) after the U.S.-helmed NATO military alliance disclosed that it has finalized a deal to buy Palantir’s Maven Smart System.
NATO officials said the contract marked a significant advancement in modernizing the alliance’s warfighting capabilities.
Ludwig Decamps, general manager of the NATO Communications and Information Agency, said he sees the deal as “providing customized, state-of-the-art AI capabilities to the Alliance and empowering our forces with the tools required on the modern battlefield to operate effectively and decisively.”
NATO expects to employ the new technology within 30 days, adding that the procurement process took just six months from defining the requirement to full adoption.
NATO Chief of Staff General Markus Laubenthal said the new system “enables the alliance to leverage complex data, accelerate decision-making and by doing so, adds a true operational value."
Meanwhile, Palantir expects to release first-quarter earnings on or about May 6.
The Street is looking for $0.07 in GAAP earnings per share and $0.13 in adjusted EPS on some $874 million of revenues.
That would represent more than 36% in year-over-year revenue growth and a 62.5% increase in adjusted EPS when compared to the $0.08 that PLTR reported in the same quarter last year. (Management has most recently guided Q1 revenues to an $860 million midpoint.)
A 62.5% year-over-year revenue gain would represent the fifth straight quarter of acceleration in y/y sales growth when compared to the 19.6%, 20.8%, 27.2% and 30% gains Palantir has seen over the past four quarters.
In fact, all 11 sell-side analysts that I found that cover the stock have increased their earnings estimates for Palantir since the current quarter began.
Palantir’s Fundamental Analysis
Next, let’s look at PLTR’s chart going back some three months:
Readers will see that PLTR broke out of a so-called “Falling Wedge” pattern of bullish reversal last week on April 9 (as denoted by the red box in the chart above).
That occurred on the day when President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on some of his tariffs, sending stocks soaring. PLTR gained 19% that day.
The stock also took back its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with a green line) on April 9. That probably brought at least some swing traders on board.
However, Palantir initially failed to break its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” denoted by a blue line). Still, the stock managed to take that 50-day SMA last Monday (April 14).
Taking the 50-day SMA was critical technically speaking, as it would have likely forced portfolio managers to increase their Palantir long exposure. The 50-day line then acted as support for PLTR for the next few sessions.
Separately, Palantir’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) has remained stronger than "neutral" since the stock’s big April 9 run-up.
Meanwhile, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or “MACD,” marked with gold and black lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom), is now very close to bullish.
Within that MACD, the 9-day EMA (marked with blue bars) has moved back above the zero-bound, while the 12-day EMA (the black line) has crossed above the 26-day EMA (the gold line). Only the 26-day EMA is still in negative territory.
If all three components move above the zero-bound and the 12-day line stays above the 26-day line, that would be historically positive from a technical perspective.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle was long PLTR at the time of writing this column.)
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Potential Breakout in PalantirPalantir Technologies has been consolidating as the broader market struggled, and some traders may look for its uptrend to continue.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the February 24 high of $99.01. PLTR peaked near that level in late March and again last week. However the stock cleared the resistance yesterday, which may signal a breakout.
Second, prices consolidated at the 50-day simple moving average but have now escaped from it. Is the intermediate-term trend getting more bullish?
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA. MACD is also rising. Those patterns may reflect bullish short-term momentum.
Finally, the software company is a highly active underlier in the options market, averaging more than 700,000 contracts per session in the last month. (It ranks in the top five of the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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PLTR: Fibonacci Fractal MappingA quick work on identification of key pattens and Mapping its intrinsic rhythm with Fibonacci Ratios.
Pattern I
Fib Mapping Pattern I
Validation of Pattern I: Match in frequency of cycles within patterns
Pattern II
Validation of Pattern II: Match in frequency of cycles
$PLTR LongNASDAQ:PLTR higher lows, 50-sma reclaim, had obeyed the 50-sma for multi-month move with few undercuts and reclaims, relative tightness up the right side, RS 99, extra rocket fuel with recent news catalysts, 49% institutional ownership
Potential resistance on the earnings gap up to be aware of
PLTR: Is the fifth wave underway?If we see a higher high on PLTR above today's high at $98.29, then this might confirm wave 1 of 5 of Intermediate wave 5. Some bullish divergences should propel price a bit higher to confirm the price action. Wave 2 should create an inverted head and shoulder look as a classic pattern. PLTR creates strong wave 3 price action and shallower wave 5. So, I will be expecting wave 5 to make it to at least 1.764 fib extension of Intermediate waves 1 and 2, which takes things to around $160. Depending on how far wave 2 goes, we can set some targets at a later time. I am off loading my positions from $75. Hoping to rid of everything close to $100. Will be reloading during the wave 2 retracement for the final push up. If by any chance Intermediate wave 4 extends, then things might get a bit complicated. Not getting another higher high now and correction back down to $86 would be a very good indication of that. Until then will be playing one leg at a time...
PLTR Setting Up for Breakout? Here's What the Options and Structure Say 🔍
Options GEX Analysis :
PLTR is pushing into the upper gamma territory with strong CALL-dominant GEX. The highest positive NETGEX aligns with the $100-$101 zone, marking it as a likely magnet if momentum continues. IVR is high at 72.3, and calls are outpacing puts at 35.7%, signaling a market leaning bullishly in sentiment.
* Gamma Wall (Resistance): $100 – $105
* Support Zone: $90 (HVL), reinforced by light put walls below
* Bias: Bullish continuation
* Option Strategy:
Consider bullish debit spreads (e.g., Buy 97.5C / Sell 102.5C) targeting breakout extension into the 100–102.5 zone. Risk-defined and well-aligned with GEX magnet levels.
Technical Trade Plan :
PLTR just printed a clear CHoCH with bullish follow-through, riding on SMC bias across all timeframes. Volume is growing, price is trending cleanly with bullish structure, and strength meter shows 4/5 bullish.
* Entry Bias: Break and hold above 95.5 = valid continuation setup
* Target 1: 102.72
* Target 2: 107.58
* Stop: 93
* Trade Suggestion:
If PLTR holds above 95.52, ride the momentum. Await minor retest for safer entry. Trail stops aggressively once 100 is in sight — expect a reaction at that GEX wall.
My Thoughts:
PLTR is showing one of the cleaner setups into this week. The bullish GEX structure gives it room to squeeze, and the SMC breakout confirms directional intent. What I love here is the synergy — the chart structure (CHoCH → BOS) lines up with the gamma roadmap. The risk is well-contained below 93, with room for a $10 move above current levels. I personally like using vertical debit spreads here due to the IV and defined risk setup.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Can AI Forge America's Next Shield?Palantir Technologies finds itself strategically positioned at the forefront of a potentially transformative U.S. defense initiative, the "Golden Dome" missile defense system. As a crucial partner in a consortium reportedly led by SpaceX and including Anduril Industries, Palantir is a leading contender for significant involvement in this multi-billion-dollar project. Golden Dome aims to establish a next-generation, networked shield against advanced missile threats, emphasizing rapid development and integration of space-based sensors and diverse defensive capabilities, moving beyond traditional procurement timelines.
Within this ambitious framework, Palantir's role leverages its core expertise in AI and large-scale data analytics. The company is anticipated to provide the essential software platform required to process and interpret data from potentially hundreds or thousands of tracking satellites, creating real-time situational awareness and enabling coordinated responses across the complex defense network. This involvement could also benefit from innovative procurement approaches, such as SpaceX's proposed subscription model, potentially securing stable, long-term revenue streams for Palantir.
Recent successes underscore Palantir's readiness for such a demanding role. The rapid adoption of its Maven Smart System by NATO validates its AI capabilities in high-stakes military environments, while its partnership with Vatn Systems demonstrates the utility of its platform in scaling and modernizing defense manufacturing. Securing a key position in the Golden Dome would represent a major strategic victory, solidifying Palantir's ascent as a disruptive force in the defense technology sector and signaling significant growth potential as it helps shape the future of national security.
PLTR: Testing Key ResistancePrice has reached a meaningful resistance area near the March highs, which may trigger renewed selling pressure. If confirmed, this could open the path toward a deeper move into the macro support zone around 60–50.
Until price is closing bellow 100, my operative scenario is one more wave down to a macro support.
Thanks for your attention and best of luck with your trading!
$PLTR Trade: Buy $90.86 , Target $101.35Beep Beep. Hope everyone is taking care of their trading accounts during this volatile phase in the markets. I noticed an identical setup on the weekly from back in August 24' and I'm looking to take advantage. We have a trend reversal on the Tom Demark sequential that helps identify trend exhaustion through a 9 Count. Currently on a 2 Count, we're testing the gap while simultaneously testing the 10WMA at 90.86.There is also a weekly gap at 101.35 ... Entry would be the 10WMA. Target the weekly Gap. Trade is as follows:
Trade Idea - Swing NASDAQ:PLTR $95 Calls 4/25
Entry - 10 WMA @ $90.86
Target - Gap on Weekly at $101.35
INTC Trade LevelsPLTR has a clear swing trading range for us: 66.41 to 100.45 to 120.
While this might seem wide- remember, I'm saying a swing trade. I'd buy LEAP's with a hold of 100.
Earnings 5/5 with an increase in IV. If you plan to swing, make sure your expir is at least 30 days past the Earnings Report date.
Earnings is expected to be above 110 or below 85
$NASDAQ:PLTR Bearish ThesisNote: Testing the Supply and Demand Basis for Trading
Based on the 1-d chart, the recent bullish move following Trump's tweet has not yet broken through the Supply Zone. Expected pullback back to Demand Zone. Reward/Risk Ratio = 2.78 using these zone.
If another bull-run breaks past Supply Zone will close short position and wait until bounce from ATH Supply Zone to re-enter.
PLTR: Won't be surprised by a 30-40% dipPLTR has been on a rip, but not without periodical 20-30% dips along the way. The way MACD is extended, it will not be surprising to see a somewhat meaningful pullback to start the wave 4 correction. Wave 2 was around 30% and lasted around a couple of months. Wave 4 can be quick and deep or can be a triangle that will take some time to resolve. Either way, I will be looking for $100 - $80 for support.
PLTR Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-16NASDAQ:PLTR PLTR Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-16)
Below is the integrated analysis of all the model reports:
──────────────────────────────
SUMMARY OF EACH MODEL’S KEY POINTS
• Grok/xAI Report
– Technical indicators on both short‐term (5‑minute) and daily charts are bullish.
– The price is trading above all key EMAs and has recently made higher highs/lows.
– Although the 5‑minute RSI is overbought and MACD shows a slight negative reading, the daily chart is strongly bullish with a bullish MACD crossover.
– Options data shows a max pain at $92.00 (well below the current price), and Grok recommends buying a naked call at the $99 strike for the weekly expiration at an estimated premium of $0.55.
• Llama/Meta Report
– The short-term chart reveals a near-term consolidation: recent closes are mixed with a cooling RSI and a negative MACD histogram, hinting at possible short-term pullbacks.
– The daily picture remains upward with bullish trend indicators, though the report notes conflicting evidence about overbought conditions.
– Their overall bias is “moderately bullish” but they tilt toward caution by suggesting—in an alternate scenario—a naked put near $95 if the price reverses.
• Gemini/Google Report
– The daily trend is strongly bullish with price well above moving averages and positive MACD/histogram readings.
– The 5‑minute chart, while bullish, shows signs of consolidation near current highs (observed in Bollinger Band touches and slight RSI cooling).
– Despite the max pain level ($92.00) that could impose later headwinds, Gemini remains moderately bullish and recommends a naked call strategy at the $100 strike — with the plan to enter at the open but with strict risk measures.
• DeepSeek Report
– On short-term charts, DeepSeek notes bullish fundamentals but also flags very high recent gains (+27% in five days) and the pressure from a max pain level far below current levels.
– The s
hort-term indicators (MACD on the 5‑minute chart) even hint at a near-term pullback, making the overall picture mixed.
– Their conclusion is to hold off (“no trade”) given the conflicting signals; if forced, they would consider a bearish put (again near $95) rather than a call.
──────────────────────────────
AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
• Agreement
– All models agree that PLTR has been on a strong recent rally; technicals on the daily chart show a marked upward bias.
– Every analysis notes potential near-term caution: the fast rise, signals of consolidation on shorter timeframes, and the fact that the max pain level ($92.00) is far below the current price.
– There is consensus that if a trade is to be attempted, one must trade with a strict, short‑term (weekly) setup and disciplined risk management.
• Disagreement
– Grok and Gemini lean toward an intraday bullish play with a naked call, while Llama (and DeepSeek’s alternative scenario) bring up the possibility of a trade in the bearish direction (naked put) due to short-term pullback indicators.
– DeepSeek ultimately suggests sitting out rather than initiating a trade given the asymmetry between a bullish trend and the potential risk imposed by max pain; meanwhile, Grok and Gemini are prepared to buy call options if conditions hold at the open.
──────────────────────────────
CONCLUSION
Overall Market Direction Consensus:
While the daily trend is clearly bullish, all models signal that the stock is now extended and vulnerable to a short-term consolidation or pullback. In our integrated view, the directional bias is moderately bullish but not without risk.
Recommended Trade:
Based on the majority—especially the Grok and Gemini reports—and provided that the market opens in line with recent momentum, a cautious bullish play is recommended. We will trade weekly options only and use a naked call strategy. To keep our premium in the ideal range, we choose a strike that is close to t
he current price yet slightly out‐of‐the‐money.
• Trade: Buy a naked call option
• Strike: $99.00 (as recommended by Grok, and a reasonable compromise between the $99 and $100 levels)
• Expiration: Weekly options expiring on 2025‑04‑17
• Premium: Approximately $0.55 per contract (within our target range)
• Entry Timing: At the open
Risk & Considerations:
– There is a significant risk that—given the recent 27% rally and short‐term consolidation indicators—the stock could pause or pull back toward the max pain near $92.00.
– In the event of a sudden intraday reversal (for example, a move below key M5 support levels around $98.16–$98.29), the position should be exited promptly.
– The intraday volatility remains high (VIX around 30 but falling), so close monitoring is essential.
• Confidence Level: Approximately 75% based on the integrated view
──────────────────────────────
TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{
"instrument": "PLTR",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 99.0,
"expiry": "2025-04-17",
"confidence": 0.75,
"profit_target": 0.83,
"stop_loss": 0.37,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.55,
"entry_timing": "open"
}