2/18/25 - $xyz - Starting position... 4 satoshi2/18/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:XYZ
Starting position... 4 satoshi
- look, this is a lil weird (hey. that's me), but as someone as many of you know, is v close to the bitcoin community, this particular message... was... let's say... convincing.
x.com
- imvho, jack is satoshi, or let satoshi use him as a decoy and therefore likely knows satoshi
- as someone who's followed jack for the last many many years, i respect his work tremendously.
- i have my issues w/ cash app, think there are many shortcomings of the payments business here... but ultimately think that vision and leadership and foresight will prevail
- stock based comp defn factors here into the FCF calc, but IF we see this thru a lens of well run co, structurally sound, we're looking at >5% yields at this pt.
- and if you just wanna do the PE game, <20x PE for comp'ing >20% growth for the next two years (i think that number will proved to be low), this stock is somehow ignored and won't be for long.
- it's a BTC beta play without some of the ecosystem issues the degens are facing, or without the difficult work that needs to be done w/ MSTR (also a buy, but nuanced).
- anyway. i'm making this a 5% equivalent position (2.5% notional, 2x leveraged) using my 2027 leap strategy. i'm a bit indifferent as to the ST results given i'd like to turn this core and do more work. think the valuation we r at today already makes sense and as you all know, i'm heavy cash. so i'm looking to deploy strategically.
lmk what you think. plan to do more work post on this more in the coming year.
V
SQ3 trade ideas
Support areas after the XYZ sell off Monthly closes provide guidance, measured target can cut through first line of support suggested by the weak two touchpoint upward trendline. Given the entire market is downward at the moment this can easily see the lower end of 60s. Fundamentals suggest recovery on the annual timeframe, maybe even next earning call at least back towards the gap.
XYZ - SQ - BLOCK - still in contextI posted this a while back, without timing, it seems to have ran close to my layout.
3 day rule here before assessment for a bounce play, or DCA.
Still need to look at fundamentals and any news, analyst coverage this next week.
For now the trend is still in tact in my opinion.
Not investment information.
$XYZ will trade > $100 - Say good bye to double digit for NYSE:XYZ
- This company is innovating better than other fintech.
- Visionary ideas for revolutionizing the finance.
- has capped number of employees @ 12k. Jack has shown financial discipline at NYSE:XYZ as compared to NYSE:TWTR
- GAAP EPS is growing for the next 3 years.
Fundamental wise:
Year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
EPS | 1.91 | 2.61 | 3.65 | 4.47 |
EPS growth% | 759% | 36% | 39% | 22.46% |
Bear Case (p/e 25 ) | $47.75 | $65.25 | $91.25 | $111.75 |
Base case ( p/e 30) | $57.3 | $78.3 | $109.5 | $134.1 |
Bull Case (p/e 35) | $66.85 | $91.35 | $127.75 | $156.45 |
- Stocks often are forward looking. I believe this year we should trade at $91-$127 range.
- Anything below $78 is accumulation zone for me.
XYZ Block Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold XYZ before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XYZ Block prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 82usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $3.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Block Inc Stock Price & AnalysisWithin a 100K Account Balance the split on Trade & Risk Management = 1/10% - 1/20% margin as an Execution Range, to set up an Order Entry and select a per Trade on Average, to avoid any drawdown hit regarding to Stop Loss & to execute Risk on Management Specifics. Trail Stop efforts are a Focus of Attention to the set up in general when Volatile-Price-Action is involved, mainly because of the usage of an Intraday-Scalp-Position tool on behalf on the Trade Plan in general
Key indicators on Trade Set Up in general
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set Up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
Earnings Trends
SQ reported 2nd qtr 2024 earnings of $0.93 per share on 8/1/24. This beat the $0.84 consensus of the 31 analysts covering the company
Consistent Data
Shares Outstanding | 617.6M
Institutional Ownership | 70.78%
Market Cap | 38.4B
Top Shareholders
Institutions | 1,345 Holders
Mutual Funds | 1,721 Holders
Other Major Holders | 63 Holders
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand
Block Inc Stock Price & Analysis: Overall Consensus | Buy