Tesla on the Edge – Key Support or Deeper Drop?📉 Tesla on the Edge – Key Support or Deeper Drop? 🔥🔍
Tesla is in freefall, dropping nearly 9% today. The stock has plummeted from its highs near $500, now testing the critical $220-$200 support zone.
📊 Key Levels to Watch:
📌 Holding $220 could trigger a relief bounce towards $275+.
📌 A breakdown below $200 could open doors to $160-$180, or worse.
🔎 What’s Happening?
Tesla, along with X and SpaceX, is under intense scrutiny amid political pressure, regulatory battles, and even cyberattacks. This aligns with the broader market uncertainty, as Bitcoin struggles to reclaim $79,478.
👀 Elon Musk is in the spotlight, facing global resistance, from social media wars to business challenges. Could this spell opportunity or more downside for Tesla?
⚡️ Will TSLA rebound, or is it heading even lower? Let me know your thoughts below!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
#Tesla #TSLA #ElonMusk #StockMarket #Trading #TechStocks
TL0 trade ideas
Tesla's Self-Inflicted Crisis of ConfidenceInvestors wanted Elon Musk to double down on EVs. Instead, they got a new political party and another reason to sell the stock.
Musk vs Trump: A Fight Investors Didn’t Ask For
Tesla’s latest sell-off has little to do with earnings or electric vehicles. Shares dropped 6.8% on Monday after Elon Musk announced plans to launch a new US political party, escalating his feud with Donald Trump and reigniting investor concerns about distraction at the top.
The fallout from Musk’s political re-entry has been swift. Tesla’s valuation has lost over $200 billion since late May, when Musk’s role in Trump’s short-lived government efficiency task force came to an end. His renewed focus on political activism contradicts April’s pledge to spend “far more” time on Tesla, and comes at a moment when the business is already under pressure from slowing EV sales and collapsing regulatory tailwinds.
Politics, Profits and a Shrinking Mandate
Trump’s so-called “big, beautiful bill” is slashing support for electric vehicles across the board. Gone is the $7,500 federal tax credit, set to expire in September. Gone too are the emissions penalties that allowed Tesla to bank billions in regulatory credits from legacy automakers. William Blair analysts estimate that over $2 billion in high-margin profit is now at risk.
The political clash is getting personal. Trump has mocked Musk’s behaviour as a “train wreck”, suggested deportation, and floated nationalising SpaceX. Investors, meanwhile, are left questioning whether Musk’s growing list of battles is starting to erode Tesla’s long-term advantage. The distraction risk is real, and the market is responding.
Technical Breakdown: Key Levels in Play
Tesla’s share price has woefully underperformed this year. The stock is down 22% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is up 6%. Recent price action highlights just how vulnerable Tesla has become to the political whims of its CEO. The public fallout with Trump helped define a new swing high in May, which now acts as clear resistance. A new swing low was formed in early June, and that is now the short-term level bulls need to defend.
Adding Keltner Channels to the chart puts the recent volatility into perspective. The sideways bands and price bouncing between them show a market stuck in broad equilibrium. There’s little directional conviction, but that may be changing. Monday’s sell-off pushed Tesla below the volume-weighted average price anchored to the April lows. If the shares remain below this VWAP and break under the June swing lows, it would confirm the attempted recovery has failed and signal that the bears are back in control.
For now, Tesla isn’t trading like a high-growth innovator. It’s trading like a politically charged meme stock with no clear trend and no adult supervision.
Tesla (TSLA) Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Tesla (TSLA) Leads Declines in the Equity MarketTesla (TSLA) Leads Declines in the Equity Market
Yesterday, President Trump announced that letters had been sent to the United States’ trading partners regarding the imposition of new tariffs — for instance, a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea. This marks a return to “trade diplomacy” under the America First strategy. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect on 1 August, though the date remains subject to revision.
As we highlighted yesterday, bearish signals had begun to emerge in the US equity market. In response to the fresh wave of tariff-related headlines, the major indices moved lower. Leading the decline — and posting the worst performance among S&P 500 constituents — were shares of Tesla (TSLA). The sell-off followed news of a new initiative by Elon Musk, who now appears serious about launching a political “America Party” to challenge both the Republicans and Democrats.
Trump criticised his former ally’s move on his Truth Social platform, and investors are increasingly concerned about the potential impact on Tesla’s business. Tesla shares (TSLA) fell by more than 6.5% yesterday, accompanied by a broad bearish gap.
Technical Analysis of Tesla (TSLA) Stock Chart
On 2 July, our technical outlook for TSLA anticipated the formation of a broad contracting triangle in the near term. Yesterday’s price action appears to confirm this scenario:
→ The sharp move highlighted the lower boundary of the triangle (marked in red);
→ The $317 level — where the previously rising channel (marked in blue) was broken — acted as resistance.
It is worth noting that during yesterday’s session, TSLA did not fall further following the gap down. In other words, the bears were unable to extend the sell-off, suggesting that the stock may attempt a recovery towards the $317 level. This area could potentially act as a central axis within the developing triangle pattern.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Long TSLA with a quick stop if we break back below 290.I have followed NASDAQ:TSLA for a while now and this 290 level has been huge. We have tried to test it a couple of times and failed, and you can see how price was stuck in a range below that level for almost 4 months earlier this year. The one thing that worries me is that there are a lot of people on social media calling for a pop here because of the drop we just saw and a lot of people are watching that 290 level. I think the market might punish the majority and dump this but the R:R is too great to ignore a trade here.
I would stop out of this if price closes back below 290 (on the 1H or D timeframe depending on your risk). If we don't stop out I would target 300, 310, 325. Break/hold above 333/5 and I would press longs for 360, 400.
If price does break/hold below 290 I would be short to target 280, 275. 275 should be another big support level as you can see the other white box/range on the chart has a top there. A look below and fail of 275 would be another good long entry and that would be the level I would watch if they decide to punish the 290 crowd.
I will post again if we see 275 otherwise look for upside with a quick stop as detailed above.
TSLA · Potential Double-Top Breakdown Idea Toward $255 → $225Rounded / double-top: Two rounded peaks formed at ≈ $335-340 with a clean neckline at $295-297 (yellow arcs on my chart).
Break confirmed: Friday’s candle closed below the neckline on above-average volume, triggering the pattern.
Measured-move math: Height of the top (≈ $40) projected beneath the neckline points to $255 for a full 100 % target.
Volume-profile “void”: VPVR shows a sharp volume vacuum between $260 and $230; once below $260, price often “slides” quickly to the next demand shelf around $225-230 — my purple “1st-target” box.
TESLA Reached The Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
TESLA gaped down on
Monday but the move was
Held up by a massive support
Area ending around 272$ and
As the support is strong we
Will be expecting a rebound and
A move up from the level
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TSLA: Triangle PatternResearching the market through structural lens, particularly the topology of trapped liquidity buildup and compression of volatility, that leads to a proportionally heavier move once a breakout occurs.
Raw compression area derived from waves of higher degrees (2nd, 3rd)
The longer price consolidates within boundaries of a triangular formation, the more significant the breakout tends to be.
TSLA Options GEX Outlook: Bearish Pressure with Limited Support The GEX (Gamma Exposure) chart signals heavy PUT-dominant sentiment:
* Highest Negative NetGEX / PUT Support is stacked tightly around 295, with major Put Walls between 290 and 275.
* GEX clusters:
* -98.4% at $285
* -74.9% at $280
* -46% at $270
* On the upside, CALL resistance begins around 310–320, with GEX cooling off at 330.
🔍 Interpretation:
* Market makers are likely to hedge against upward price moves, increasing resistance near 310–320.
* Downside movement toward 285–280 could accelerate gamma momentum, causing a potential drop toward 270.
📉 Options Setup Suggestion:
* If price rejects at $297–300, buying PUTS (1–2 DTE) with target at 285 could benefit from GEX tailwinds.
* Avoid CALLs unless price breaks above 310 with volume.
TSLA 1-Hour Chart Technicals: Compression & Reaction Zone at Key Structure
The 1H chart shows:
* A recent Change of Character (ChoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS) near 290–295, indicating an attempt to reverse short-term bearish trend.
* Price is consolidating within a small demand zone (green box) and trying to retest the 295–297 region.
* However, TSLA remains under a macro downtrend with the descending channel intact.
🎯 Key Zones:
* Resistance: $297 → $305 → $310
* Support: $288.77 (LTF BOS) → $285 → $280
* Volume shows weak bullish momentum so far, not strong enough to push through resistance decisively.
⚠️ Trade Setup Ideas:
* PUT Scenario: If price fails to reclaim 297, consider entering near 296–297 with stop above 300. Target: 288 → 285.
* CALL Scenario (Risky): Only consider Calls above close + hold over 300, aiming for 310 with tight stop below 297.
🧠 Final Thoughts:
* Bias: Bearish to Neutral until price shows strong reclaim above 300.
* GEX setup favors PUT plays, especially on weakness below 295.
* If shorting, watch for reaction at 285 — this is the last solid gamma level before an air pocket to 270.
* Stay nimble, use stops, and respect trendline pressure overhead.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
TSLA consolidation before expansionTesla despite being effected once again by fud is ready to pop. Average volume is up, a bear flag has played out, and oscillators reset. This 55 EMA on the weekly is a nice DCA zone. A bounce here or around 270 is likely. I think we see another try at 350 in coming weeks.
My plan:
Averaging down on TSLL, in CSP, already captured a few rounds of covered calls
TESLA 4HS Tesla broke below the triangle formation, signaling a bearish continuation.
Trend: Bearish breakdown from consolidation triangle.
Key Support (SUP): $300 (now resistance on retest).
Next Demand Zone: Strong block between $284–285.
Accumulation Zone: $250–220, identified for potential long-term institutional accumulation.
Resistance (RES): $300–350 remains a significant supply zone.
Projection Channel: Downward channel in play; price action respects descending pressure.
Tesla: Ticking Higher on Consolidation Breakout Potential
Current Price: $315.35
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $322
- T2 = $330
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $310
- S2 = $305
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Tesla.
**Key Insights:**
Tesla’s stock has been consolidating within a narrow range of $305–$320, reflecting investors' cautious optimism ahead of potential catalysts. Technical resistance at $322 is acting as a key breakout point that could open the path to higher price levels. The bullish sentiment is fueled by improving production efficiencies, ongoing expansion in international markets, and Elon Musk’s ambition to transform Tesla into a broader technology conglomerate. However, concerns surrounding increasing competition in the EV market and potential headwinds from regulatory changes remain significant risks.
**Recent Performance:**
Tesla’s recent price action has showcased volatility while maintaining key support levels around $301.11. The stock has demonstrated resilience, holding firm during tech sector corrections. Over the past month, Tesla has seen short-term rallies driven by positive speculation about its EV lineup, alongside broader optimistic movement in the S&P 500. Investors have stayed engaged, with trading volumes suggesting sustained interest despite external pressures.
**Expert Analysis:**
Market experts underscore $322 as a critical resistance level that serves as the decision point for renewed momentum. The stock's recent consolidation pattern signals a possible breakout, assuming macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. Analysts have also cautioned about rising competition from other EV manufacturers like BYD, which intensifies pressure on Tesla's pricing strategy and market share. Nevertheless, Tesla’s ambitious pipeline, including autonomous driving technologies, remains a significant source of long-term investor confidence.
**News Impact:**
Tesla’s near-term outlook is influenced by competing factors. On one hand, reports of a lower-cost EV could dramatically increase its addressable market, while ongoing advances in AI and battery technologies enhance the company’s competitive edge. On the other hand, upcoming expiration of federal EV tax credits and increasing geopolitical scrutiny over Musk’s public statements may weigh on investor sentiment. Despite this, news of expanded production capabilities in Gigafactory Nevada has bolstered optimism regarding Tesla’s capacity to scale effectively.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Taking a long position in Tesla appears favorable as price action signals bullish momentum within its established range. The short-term trade targets $322 followed by $330, with stop-loss levels placed at $310 and $305 to manage downside risk. Traders are advised to monitor any developments in macroeconomic conditions and competitive activity, which remain key influences on price trajectory.
TSLA – Calm Before the Storm or Just Another Dip Buy?Tesla (TSLA) is trading around $315, bouncing off recent lows, but this isn’t just a clean technical setup. With Elon Musk’s political drama escalating (hello, “America Party”) and ongoing tension with Trump, TSLA is becoming a battleground stock with serious volatility.
As swing traders, that’s exactly where we thrive.
📍 Entry Plan
✅ Entry #1 – $315
✅ Entry #2 – $300
• Previous breakout zone — ideal for dip buyers
✅ Entry #3 – $265
• Strong macro support; only activated if market correction deepens.
🎯 Profit Targets
• TP1: $335
• TP2: $355
• TP3: 400+ – if sentiment + volume align with narrative momentum (think: Robotaxi or AI catalyst)
If $265 gets hit, I’m not panicking, I’m preparing for high-reward setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m just sharing my plan and technical zones. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
📌 Follow for more ideas based on price, narrative, and timing. Trade smart — not loud. 🧭📈
TSLA : A lot of whipsawingThis has been a very volatile stock to hold. However for those who are bullish on this name long term, I can see this expand and impulse out into a larger 3rd wave. A smaller retracement still fits in this narrative to complete the wave 2 bottom. Let's see how earnings play out.
TESLA: Bulls Will Push
The price of TESLA will most likely increase soon enough, due to the demand beginning to exceed supply which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
$TSLA Bullish Pennant Forming on Daily – Breakout Loading?Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is currently trading within a bullish pennant formation on the daily timeframe — and this one is textbook.
It entered the pennant from lower prices, forming a clear flagpole. Since then, price has been compressing between:
📉 Two descending resistance levels → Lower highs
📈 Two ascending support levels → Higher lows
This symmetrical tightening creates a classic bullish continuation setup — if the breakout confirms. Also found support at horizontal level of support/resistance $229.
What I’m watching:
⇒ Break above pennant resistance with volume
⇒ Reaction to any macro or Tesla-specific news during this compression (earnings July 23)
TSLA has a habit of explosive moves after consolidation. Keep this one on high alert.
#TSLA #Tesla #technicalanalysis #bullishpennant #tradingview #DisciplineTrading
Tesla, Below 200 Next - The Crash Can Reach 140, 150 & 160Tesla has been bearish since December 2024 and producing lower highs since. A strong lower high happened late May with a shooting start candlestick pattern. A month later another lower high and bullish rejection with an inverted hammer.
This looks like an ABC correction with the low in March/April being the A wave. The lower high in May the B wave and the next low the final C wave. This would complete the corrective pattern.
Conditions for bullish
An invalidation of the bearish bias and potential would happen with a rise and close, weekly, above 355. Any trading below this number and the bearish bias remains intact.
Indicators: RSI & MACD
» RSI:
The RSI looks pretty bad as it already curved down; trending down and moving lower since December 2024.
» MACD:
The weekly MACD is weak, starting to curve but still on the bullish zone. The daily MACD already turned bearish and moving lower.
Summary
Overall, market conditions are weak for this stock and everything points lower. The chart structure points to a lower low based on a broader bearish trend.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Could TSLA rebound after a weaker decrease than expected deliverTesla Q2 2025 Delivery fell, but could it rebound in 2H?
Key Figures
Q2 2025 Deliveries: 384,122 vehicles
Year-over-Year Change: Down approximately 13–14% from Q2 2024
Wall Street Expectations: Around 385,000–387,000 vehicles
Production vs. Deliveries: 410,244 vehicles produced, indicating a build-up in inventory
Fundamental analyst
Sales Decline: This marks the second consecutive quarter of declining deliveries for Tesla, reflecting intensifying competition, especially from Chinese EV makers like BYD and legacy automakers such as General Motors, who have gained significant market share.
Aging Product Line: Tesla’s current lineup is considered to be aging, with no major new models launched recently, while competitors continue to introduce fresh, competitively priced vehicles.
Brand and Leadership Impact: Tesla’s brand image and CEO Elon Musk’s public controversies and political activity have contributed to softer demand in some markets.
Inventory Build-Up: Production exceeded deliveries by about 26,000 vehicles, suggesting demand-side challenges rather than supply constraints.
Stock Market Reaction: Despite the delivery decline, Tesla’s stock price rose by about 4–5% after the report, as actual results were better than the most pessimistic forecasts (340,000–360,000 deliveries). The markets are expecting the decreasing trend to be slower.
Techincal Analyst
TSLA has rebounded strongly from its 2023 lows, forming a clear upward channel since late 2024. The stock is currently trading near the lower end of this ascending channel, indicating a key support area.
If TSLA sustains above the $300–$310 zone, the uptrend could resume, targeting $350 and potentially $400.
A breakdown below $300 could trigger further declines toward $275 or lower, especially if accompanied by high volume.
TSLA is at a technically important level. Holding above $300–$310 keeps the bullish channel alive, while a break below could signal a deeper correction. For the next directional move, watch for volume spikes and price action near these key levels.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Analyst from Exness