NATGAS It looks like we've got more bullish momentum ahead. Forecasts for Jan just keep getting colder and colder. It's expected this Jan will bring the coldest US winter in almost 10 years.
With that Demand Forecasts are surging and the end of winter storage expecting keep heading lower.
It'll be fair to expect a gap higher when the market opens. Production is still hovering at 104.5bcf. Exports are back up to 15bcf.
It's looking like we'll hit $4 and possibly further given the current forecasts.
Merry Christmas, you trade-obsessed lunatics! 🎄 Take a break—those charts can wait. Wishing you fat gains, tight spreads, and a full of profits (and fewer margin calls). 🥂
NATURALGAS TL TR post from me, the short story, waiting very patiently before entering a short, currently price is being pushed/manipulated because there's a fckton of liquidity to be taken out before we see a real correction downwards.
Begin TL TR :D Yesterday we saw a pullback from recent swing low with very light volume, typical BS liquidity grab, today however the pump continued and in the 1h chart you can see that volume is increasing above average in the direction of an uptrend.
There is buyside liquidity at 3.5-65, for the market maker to maximise his profit, ideally he wishes to kick all retailers in that area and when there are no more SL left then they will start selling. Yesterday they did a 1st attempt to dump and shake the market, now is the second phase.
Currently we are stuck in overbought territory at 4h and yesterday already bearish divergences apeared at 1h before the dump. As of today morning oscillators at 1h indicate retracement and continuation of uptrends BUT everything has it's limits. The area around 3.5-3.65 will most likely be tested again AND if price starts showing bearish divergence with oscillators at 1h chart while inside this area then I am entering my short for the week. It appears that the next days till next Monday will have milder temperatures for the US and the upcoming storage report for the week is expected to be bearish, therefore for me both technicals and fundamentals align in the expectation that the upcoming week will be most likely bearish.
Not yet short though, first we need a clear rejection from the high with divergence at 1h.
NATGAS Production is 104bcf Exports are 14.5bcf Watch these low liquidity moves, the data isn't supporting a random rally. Only the weather in Jan driving this.