Will $XPD lose 1,500$ ? Waiting Patiently. Bears in Hibernation !
If the trendline is held we can see a bounce at 1,500
If we lose 1,500, its time to take profit on longs if anyone has and look for good short opportunity
XPDUSD trade ideas
Double Bottom on Palladium Price has been range bound between 1437.632 and 1327.260, we also have a double bottom formation as shown with a lower second bottom and RSI divergence. We could look to buy when the neckline has been broken. Targets and stops could be based on the RR ratio specified and support and resistance but price might rally all the way up to the supply zone.
Palladium: Is it indeed going for a bubble burst?By Andria Pichidi
Palladium, Daily & Weekly
Spot palladium tumbled by more than 17% from record highs at $1,609.85 at the end of March, with the main catalyst of this drift possibly being the closing of positions as the end the month and the end of quarter (i.e. end of the contract) came. The plummet was the biggest drop seen in the past 2 years, raising concerns regarding a possible bubble burst of the $1,116 rally since 2016. This amounts to a 234% rise.
As Commerzbank stated: “In our opinion, a correction of the palladium price was long overdue. It is not yet possible to say whether yesterday’s plunge was the bursting of a bubble; for this to be the case, the price would need to fall even more sharply or further.”
Indeed, technically speaking, we cannot claim that the bubble has burst, as the precious metal has retraced less than 23.6% of 3-year gains and less than 38.2% of 2018 gains. Meanwhile, it holds above the 20-week SMA, which has been providing a strong Support area for the asset the past three quarters.
Theoretically speaking however, Palladium is strongly positive correlated with the car industry as it finds 80% of its demand from gasoline autocars. The source of Palladium’s performance the last decade, though, was and still is the global supply deficit, fired by the car industry demand. Considering only the 2017 supply, the deficit reached 801K ounces.
Despite the latest decline in Palladium’s prices, it is unlikely that the demand for palladium will change significantly the next few years. This could be explained by the tighter emission standards, as despite the overall economic slowdown, the auto sales slowdown in China (due to tax cuts) and US, the higher recycling volume, and the high price of palladium, car-makers must meet emission standards. Hence they are quite “forced” to use palladium, as it is the metal used in catalyst converters to reduce emissions from gasoline engines.
In Europe on the other hand, the swing from diesel engines has hit European producers and as a consequence platinum price as well, which was the most preferable metal for reducing emissions in diesel engines. This balanced the risks stated above, for Palladium’s price, as diesel engines are “undesirable”.
The expensive palladium and unwelcome platinum could eventually push manufacturers to turn to potential PGM-free engines (PGM stands for Platinum Group Metals). However this would take time. A potential approach for manufacturers could be to substitute palladium for platinum on engines other than diesel ones. However this is a scenario has not be accomplished yet and seems inevitable to happen for now.
So far, the legislation and the taxation for diesel engines, but also the general tighter emission standards, have boosted the substitution of diesel engines into alternative engines, such as electric, hybrid and petrol which all require the use of more palladium. Gasoline vehicles are expected to maintain a majority market share to 2025 and to increase in absolute numbers including gasoline hybrids. These factors could keep palladium demand rising, unscathed from the economic slowdown and the higher recycling volume.
Meanwhile, in China, the world’s largest consumer, Morgan Stanley reported that new legislation will be applied from 2020 which will require 30% more PGMs on each vehicle. This is another factor that is likely to keep demand high.
As Norilsk Nickel Group, one of the largest palladium mining company stated: “The demand for palladium is growing.” “Per unit PGM consumption in hybrid cars is higher than in traditional vehicles with the same ICE volume; accordingly, we expect palladium consumption to increase by 3 mln oz by 2025. “
Additionally, according to research from BASF, the world’s leading supplier of catalysts, demand for palladium in China is expected to grow from 2.332 million ounces to 3.429 million ounces by 2022.
As the supply deficit is more in favour of palladium than platinum or any other PGM metal, the palladium price is not expected to extend the sell off for long. Currently, palladium is accelerating lower again, after the small rebound from last week’s low, at 1,331.90. Having met the Resistance area at the edge of the upper weekly Bollinger Bands pattern at 1609.85 on March 21, the sharp pullback seems to be a correction of this long term rally.
Looking at the technical indicators , the longterm outlook keep engrossing by a strongly positive sentiment. The medium term however and more precisely the daily indicators, turn to a decreasing momentum, signalling a possible extension of the latest drift. The MACD lines turned negative, with lower Bollinger Bands and RSI pointing downwards.
A closing breakout below 1-week Support at 1,331.9 could push palladium to December 2018 and January 2019 levels. The next Support is at 1,275 , which is the mid of 38.2%-50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the August 2018-March 2019 upleg. Further losses would open the way to a significant area for the longterm outlook as it is a break of this area that could confirm a bubble burst and could open the way to 1-year lows. This area is placed between 200-day EMA and the 50% fib level, i.e. 1,220-1,235 area.
On the flipside, Resistance comes between the latest peak and the 50-day EMA, at 1,440-1,465. The breach and break the latter could retest the record peak at 1,619 .
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Palladium Finds Weakness at ResistanceLast post: March 27th 2019. See chart .
Review: Price was at a strong level of support and we were waiting to see if that level would hold.
Update: Price has since broken through that level of support and continues to look weak.
Conclusion: If price breaks below the previous low then it may head towards the 200 simple moving average.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Long Term PalladiumPalladium makes one last gasping leap higher as its parabolic move comes to an end. Will be a great opportunity to enter shorts.
Bearish divergence evident on Palladium Spot price $XPDUSDPalladium has had a run that can be described as nothing short of extravagant. Since bottoming out recently on the 16th August 2018, we have seen the price rally from $833 to the current high of $1615. To put it into perspective, that means the palladium price has basically doubled in a space of 7 months. With the recent inversion of the yield curve and markets taking a breather on Friday, we have seen the Palladium price come off +-3% in the form of a massive bearish engulfing candle. What is also interesting to note is that we are seeing bearish divergence where the RSI indicator has formed a lower high, not confirming the higher high in the spot price of Palladium. These kind of divergences can often result in quite a strong correction in price. Although i am by no means trying to call a top to this parabolic move (which is dangerous), i think the chart is finally starting to show some signs of caution. Also if you look at the weekly we have formed a massive weekly reversal candle which could further add conviction to this bearish call. I would prefer to see the recent daily closing lows of $1516-$1517 taken out to be fully comfortable an interim top is in place. If anything, caution is advised chasing this extreme move. Perhaps we also start to see the local platinum miners on the JSE consolidate their recent strong moves $JSEAMS $JSENHM $JSEIMP
Palladium : Current ObservationasParabolic Method is about measuring the Jag, with Parabolas.
It's about reading the potential from the phenomena it self: The Jag. Any jag, at any resolution, scientifically.
Model Appends:
Double Blue. Large scale Parabola, forwards facing. ( resembles probability section )
29 Mar '19. this is a three minute scale hang. across ( 3:00 - 4:30 ) then scaled.
Thin Dark Red, Precipitates
Local Bottom.
Point a: collapse
27 Mar '19; 3:00
Point b: Local Bottom
28 Mar '19; 11:45
Point c: Osculated .
Thin Red
Point a: Local Bottom.
Point a: collapse. 27 Mar '19; 3:00
Point b1 , b2 : The two very local tops :Mar 29 '19; 5:00 - 10:00
Point c
Confirmation
01 Apr '19 12:30
Thin Red
Point c: Confirmation
01 Apr '19 12:30
Please Note DBO: it it has been there. "Doted, Bold, Orange." DBO is well hung on a rally late February. ( b, a ) The Jag just surpassed that. O1:Mar 07:15 )
Could we have expected the Jag to go there? ( 28 March ) as seen from Mid March? No.
This iS: What was in the curves, what went down, and the curves that emerged there from.
The Extensions: the quadratic extension of the hung portion of the curves, are.
GD Has been hung since 27 Mar 20:00
XPDUSD can move in a 13% range...XPDUSD can move in a 13% range. The exchange rate in the 1280-1460 usd range can form a horizontal axis wave structure. Palladium may continue to move up in the long run. Within a year and a half, up to 1900 usd target prices are available.
Palladium - Short term top?Good weekend everyone, lets look at Palladium, a metal similar to platinum and very used on eletromechanics system like relays, also used on OIL industry as a catalyst.
This metal has been on a very long term rally upside that never seens to stop, but, nothing go up or down forever.
This week candle closed as a bearish pin bar and as we can see the volume is getting smaller and smaller, now, of course i'll not trade based ONLY on a simple pin bar, and since we are at ATH we dont have previous resistances to analyse =)
Daily chart is where im looking forward a short opportunity, if the price break and close below orange line i may short with good RxR targeting fico retracement zones and weekly 50ema.
The low volume on last wave say that maybe the demand is slowly decreasing, maybe its too expensive now our beloved palladium ?
And now we have a beautiful RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE which give us confluence to try this one.
Anyway remember, trade AGAINST the main trend is always dangerous and the main trend for palladium right now is BULLISH, thats why always trade with proper money management.
This Trading Idea is to be used for educational purposes only. This idea does not represent financial advice and its NOT a signal. You should trade based only on your own technic and knowledge.
Palladium - Going HOT!Here is my analysis on palladium. Although the raw material is very important for batteries of electric cars, it has now come in a resistance area, where I think it will not be so easy to shoot beyond. First, the red C = red A and the bracketed C is 1.618 * the length of the bracketed A.
That would be a harmonious conclusion of the upward movement and now it would be advisable to secure profits. As a producer of palladium, I would now sell 50% of my annual production on the futures market for the next 5 years to secure cash flow for the long term. The other 50% of annual production I consider a reserve if the price continues to rise. If, as expected, a top is formed, then I would sell another 25% of the production over the long term. However, it is important to be quick, because the competitors will then do the same and then the price would develop along the black arrow.
Why I would wait on Palladium correction before buyingMMHVW so XPD have been the talk of the town recently - the metal used for catalyst conversion, hydrogens fuel storage and electrodes. With the move from internal combustion operated vehicles to EV’s and hybrid’s the demand for XPD will increase and could push price way higher. Reminder however that markets moves in waves dynamic and logarithmic, not static or linear (Glenn Neely), I’m expecting a pullback $1670 or roundabout to $1100 or roundabout. This would be the time to go long/buy.
BUYING OPPORTUNITYPalladium with the big shakedown. The biggest since its started trading on the commodities market. A lot fo weak hands selling here, good buying opportunity for those with big appetite because the potential for a final move up is massive and gains could be in the double digits. looking to buy around 1300 or lower
Palladium Corre e e e cting. Passing the available parabolic support, to 1320s? that is the price longitude for violet channel rooted 15 Aug '18 under the current jag trajectory. Scrolling further down, on the left chart suggest a 'scandalous' 45% decline.
ALL metals are off the cliff . . echoes of monetary necessities and niceties of pacing and downwards pressure pressure. what do I know, Nothing, I'm a poet, at most.
Industrial use of Palladium, in catalytic converts does not account for the perceived value of Palladium, The monetary implications of Platinum group metals are more relevant in the Global Debt Glut. Party with gold is a good sign. Pally was flaying kite high.
Meaningful top in play...=>For those following our previous idea on Palladium that know we have been looking for a meaningful top since December. The time has come for us to get to work on the sell side in Palladium with a 40% move to the downside in play.
=>We've attached the previous idea for a technical breakdown ... feel free to open up the discussion here for those interested on trading this one in live.
=>Best of luck
Platinum , VolumepeekThose , left pane, are stops? Thin horizontal sequence .
and doted green is hung. replaced by Dashed Green .
PALLADIUM - Potential to reach next level down on FibPotential to reach next level down on Fib - retracement...
Another 6.5% decrease in Palladium.... The exchange rate builds on a falling wave system. My hypothesis is that a double wave system may develop. In this case, the target price is 1410 usd.
Palladium PlopsI appreciate the twitching the Jag shows as it passed down across the minor lines on its way to Solid Yellow.
Except for the Green doted 'abola, the additions to the model where placed this morning 8:00 am EST. I was expecting a local bottom at the intersection of solid yellow and solid Green 1473 , 01 Apr. With an intermediate hold at 1495 as the shaded areas expose.
That white oval denotes the ambiguity of the third central point of the abola. its not hanged, it needs another foot hold. That is denoted with doted green.
came back to my screen 3:30 EST to see this. huy
Volume. hmm, yup ; that is a relevant profile. there was a story in seeking alpha, about palladium, yesterday. . . . positive note. There are other forces, out of view to me. I suppose Nickle miners .
The operating principle is sustainability, the more valuable metal the better for the world financial independence . Sovereign states, international law and all that wellness.
Might algos be charges with auto shaking stops?
Palladium: Append: Thin GreenThe model extends; Two more curves .
the Jag could crawl up cg3, out of pale yellow area.
alternatively, bounce off thin blue, on another leg down. The Pale,Thin,Red curve; is also there. Those TPRC are rooted in the top, 03 Mar 20:30 and other features of the Jag. counter hung. That variant of parabolic support is a solid addition to the method.
If so then a longer rally, Back up through Pale Green Area. crawling or bounsing on cg3. Swinging past Double Violet local trend; Reaching for o Bold Yellow.
Follow triple Violet.
Palladium Drops To SupportLast post: March 18th 2019. See chart .
Review: Price had just broken above the previous resistance level.
Update: Price is currently in a deep pullback and has found support at a previous resistance level but the overall trend is still up.
Conclusion: We have to see whether support will hold and if price can move back above the 50 simple moving average.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
