XRP/USD Short Trade Setup Analysis (9H Timeframe - Bitstamp)🔹 Current Setup:
📈 XRP experienced a strong move down from our previous entry at 2.84. Currently XRP has broken through and entered the middle parallel channels whilst respecting and testing their boundaries, verifying the channels validity as a true trading range thus far. At this moment we can see that XRP has broken down to the middle channel, breaking through the median/equilibrium line before now returning up to test the middle channels resistance level.
🔹Price appears to be respecting the level so far ($2.25), with early signs showing a potential break down from this level.
📉 Given our previous entry at 2.84 which remains open, we can now enter a new position here, upon touch of the middle channels upper resistance level. We want to use a tight stop loss, and a smaller amount of margin for this one, given that price is between higher timeframe support and resistance levels. We can see that the most recent high, formed via a candle wick sits at 2.361, so our stoploss should be placed just slightly above this level around 2.38 at which point if hit, would invalidate this trade.
🎯 This allows us to target our new level of 1.52, updated from Februarys 1.4 target identified by the -0.272 fib extension, and a monthly dynamic support.🎯
Previous Trade:
Current Outlook:
Risk/Reward = 1:6.6
📍 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones):
- 🎯 $2.25 (Middle channels upper resistance)
- 📍 Key Support Levels:
- ❗ $2.10 (0.23 Fib retracement)
- 🔻 $1.76 (100 Fib retracement)
- 📉 Deeper Target: $1.52 - $1.40 XRP (Projected based on Fibonacci extensions, channel breakdown & monthly dynamic support)
📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play)
- 🟢 Entry: If price breaks above $2.38, our stop will be hit and we should also close our original short from 2.84.
✅ Justification:
- 🔹 If price breaks and holds above $2.38, the bearish structure could be invalidated and price would find itself back within the higher parallel channels range. At this point it would be advised to close all positions and wait for confirmation in direction.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation)
- ❌ Invalidation Level: Above $2.38
- 🔻 Downside Targets:
- $2.10: 0.236 Fibonacci retracement
- $1.76: 100 Fibonacci retracement
- $1.52: Monthly dynamic support
- $1.36 - $1.40 XRP: Final bearish target (0.272 Fib extension & channel bottom)
✅ Justification:
- ❗ Price remains within a descending channel, signaling a continuation of the downtrend.
- ❗ The ETF-driven pump appears to be a liquidity grab, leading to a likely reversal.
- ❗ A rejection from $2.35 / the middle channels upper resistance, it would confirm bearish continuation, targeting the lower support zones.
- ❗ Bitcoin still needs to come lower to test support, therefore, XRP is likely to fall further due to Bitcoins directing the broader market.
⚡ Key Takeaways:
- 🔹 XRP is facing parallel channel resistance at $2.25, a likely rejection zone.
- 🔹 A breakdown below $2.00 increases bearish pressure, targeting $1.52 XRP.
- 🔹 Bearish bias remains unless price breaks & holds above $3.21.
- 🔹 Expect price to follow the descending channel structure toward $1.52 - $1.40.
