Oil testing supportCrude prices were a touch softer in early trade this morning. Yet prices for WTI appear to be oscillating around $73.85 – a level which represents the 50% retracement of the rally from early December to the recent high of $80.61. It also marks a point on the downwardly-sloping trendline which was broken above nearly three weeks ago, and is now being retested as support. Could this mark the end of a correction from recent highs? And if so, could that mean that oil is now consolidating ahead of another rally attempt? It’s certainly possible, particularly as the daily MACD has pulled back sharply from the overbought levels seen two weeks ago. But aside from the technical picture, there are plenty of unknowables on the fundamental side. Chief amongst these is what President Trump is going to do about tariffs. Soon after his inauguration, just over a week ago, he threatened 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports from 1st February, along with a mention of a 10% tariff (down from 60%) on China. On Monday, Scott Bessent was confirmed as the new US Treasury Secretary. He began his appointment by calling for a universal tariff of 2.5% on all imports to the US. This surprised market participants, most of whom had come to expect that tariffs would be threatened/applied on a ‘case-by-case’ basis. As far as oil is concerned, both Canada and Mexico export oil to the US.