WTI - Weekly Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 64.000, resumption of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 79.361 breaks.
If the support at 64.000 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of uptrend- will be invalid.
TVC:USOIL BLACKBULL:WTI
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in daily chart at 79.355 on 01/15/2025, so more losses to support(s) 64.900 and minimum to Major Support (64.000) is expected.
Take Profits:
68.354
70.182
72.434
74.449
77.410
79.361
83.961
87.000
93.882
100.802
109.192
126.350
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XTIUSD trade ideas
USOIL 1HR // 16 March AnalysisUSOIL has been in a downtrend.
With this trendline forming and the price nearing the trendline, we can look for potential sells.
The price has been resisting the 68.00 area, we can wait and see how it reacts to the trendline.
potential sells if we can see a good rejection from the trendline as well as the resistance zone. A good target would be near the 65.00 price area.
Trading Strategy for Crude Oil Next WeekAs U.S. President Donald Trump pushes for an increase in domestic oil production and a reduction in energy prices, the prospect of declining profits may stifle drilling activities. If WTI crude oil hovers around $65 per barrel, shale oil operators may shut down 25 drilling rigs and keep U.S. oil production flat. A further drop in prices would actually reduce crude oil production.
With Trump's trade war weighing on the demand outlook, traders are bracing for an influx of Russian crude oil into the global market, and WTI crude oil is in the midst of its longest losing streak in nearly a decade.
The price of crude oil has been lingering at a low level. On the weekly chart, it closed with a bearish doji star, showing a double-bottom pattern. In the short term, the oil price is still fluctuating in the range below $68.5. If it fails to break upward in the future, there is a high probability of a continued decline.
USOIL Trading Strategy for Next Week:
Sell@67.7-68.3
TP:66-65
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WTI Crude The Week Ahead 17th March '25WTI Crude INTRADAY bearish & oversold capped by resistance at $68,65
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
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🛢️"US oil Spot / WTI" Energy Market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors.
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- Supply and Demand: The current price is influenced by the balance between oil supply and demand. OPEC's production cuts and increasing demand from Asia are driving prices up ¹.
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- Inflation: Rising oil prices can contribute to inflation, which may lead to interest rate hikes and impact oil demand.
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- Non-Commercial Traders: Currently holding a net long position, indicating a bullish sentiment.
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- Historical Price Patterns: Oil prices tend to be higher during the summer months due to increased demand.
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- Potential for an Upward Movement: With increasing demand and supply constraints, oil prices may continue to rise.
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Considering the current price of 72.500, USOILSPOT is expected to maintain its upward momentum, driven by increasing demand and supply constraints. However, investors should be cautious of potential price volatility and geopolitical events that may impact oil prices.
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WTI Crude INTRADAT bearish below 6865The WTI Crude Oil price action sentiment appears bearish, reinforced by the prevailing long-term downtrend. The recent price action indicates a potential oversold rally, approaching a critical resistance zone.
Key Levels and Price Action
The primary trading level to watch is 68.65, representing the current intraday swing high and falling resistance trendline. An oversold rally towards this level, followed by a bearish rejection, could confirm continued downward momentum. In this case, the next downside support targets are at 66.04, 65.34, and 64.80 over the longer timeframe.
On the other hand, a decisive breakout above the 68.65 resistance level, confirmed by a daily close, would invalidate the bearish outlook. This scenario could trigger further rallies toward the next resistance levels at 69.30 and 70.12.
Conclusion
The sentiment remains bearish as long as the 68.65 resistance level holds, with potential downside targets at 66.04, 65.34, and 64.80. A confirmed breakout above 68.65 would shift the outlook to bullish, paving the way for potential rallies toward 69.30 and 70.12. Traders should carefully watch the price action around the 68.65 level to assess the next directional move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Crude oil builds a base after a downtrendCrude oil is consolidating in a narrow coil after a medium-term downtrend. As the position of the price is close to the lower border of the bollinger bands, and below the fair price of $70 (that’s a supply/demand equilibrium according to the STEO forecast), the neckline of a current formation can be broken to the upside should the price come closer to it and tries to initiate a test.
The mean-reversion scenario with the price touching 70 is a dominant scenario, though, the downside reversal is also possible, as Crude oil is still under pressure.
Political talks and statements may impose volatility and change the direction of the price at any time, as the market operates under increased uncertainty and volatility. Be careful and manage your risks at all times!
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your owr research and never forget to manage your risk!
USOIL Long USOIL Long , It looks good trade to me because its strong support here, and Take profit level is very obvious and high probability.
I kept big SL to be safe side, and take profit on TP.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trades.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice, trade on your own risk.
USOIL latest analysis of profitable trading signalsDuring the US trading session on Thursday, US crude oil fell in a narrow range and is currently trading around $67.13 per barrel, holding most of the gains in the previous two trading days. Previously, oil prices had rebounded for two consecutive trading days. The latest monthly report released by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday showed that the organization maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, which is expected to increase by 1.45 million barrels per day and 1.43 million barrels per day respectively. The current crude oil market is supported by factors such as the decline in US inflation and the recovery of market sentiment in the short term, and prices have rebounded.
Analysis: From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend of crude oil remains in a wide upward channel, and oil prices gradually fall back to the lower edge of the channel. There have been many cases where one trading day swallowed up all the gains in the previous week, and the short-selling forces are more dominant. The medium-term trend of crude oil maintains a range of oscillations and downward, and the lower edge of the channel has been broken. It is expected that the medium-term decline of crude oil will start soon. The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) continues to consolidate at a low level, and the oil price gradually tests from the bottom of the range to the upper edge of the range, with the range range between 68.80-65.20. The short-term objective trend direction is oscillating rhythm. It is expected that the trend of crude oil will be resisted at the upper edge of the range during the day, and the probability of falling back downward is high. On the whole, He Bosheng recommends that the operation strategy of crude oil today is mainly to rebound high and to step on lows as a supplement. The short-term focus on the upper resistance of 68.3-68.8 and the short-term focus on the lower support of 66.0-65.5. FX:USOIL FOREXCOM:USOIL TVC:USOIL
WTI Oil H4 | Rising into an overlap resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 68.46 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 70.70 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 65.20 which is a multi-swing-low support.
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USOLI NEXT MOVE ounter-Analysis (Bearish Scenario Instead of Bullish)
Rejection at Resistance Instead of Breakout
The targets assume that price will move past resistance zones at $69-$71, but resistance could hold, causing a reversal.
If sellers step in near resistance, we could see another leg downward instead of a rally.
Support Failure Instead of Bounce
The chart suggests that crude oil will bounce from support (~$66.89), but if selling pressure increases, the price could break below support instead.
A break below $65.85 (strong support) could send USOIL toward lower levels ($64 or below).
Lower High Formation Instead of Uptrend
If oil fails to break above resistance and forms a lower high, it could indicate continued bearish momentum rather than a bullish reversal.
The previous downtrend might still be intact, with this current move just being a retracement before another drop.
Fundamental Risks
Macroeconomic factors like higher interest rates, reduced demand, or increased oil supply could prevent a bullish rally.
If economic data suggests slowing growth, oil prices could struggle to push higher.
Rising Crude Stockpiles and Lower Refinery UtilizationU.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels last week, bringing total stockpiles to levels that remain 4% below the five-year seasonal average. This build in inventories comes as refinery throughput declined by 346,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 15.4 million bpd, with utilization dropping to 85.9%. The reduction in refinery runs reflects both seasonal maintenance and broader adjustments in refining operations, as facilities respond to shifting demand trends across different fuel products.
Despite the lower processing rates, gasoline production increased to 9.6 million bpd, while distillate output fell to 4.6 million bpd. This divergence suggests that refiners are prioritizing gasoline production while scaling back on distillate output, possibly in response to evolving consumption patterns.
Shifts in Product Balances and Market Dynamics
Gasoline inventories declined by 1.4 million barrels, though they remain 1% above the five-year seasonal average. This drawdown suggests that while gasoline demand has not surged, refiners are maintaining a cautious approach to supply. In contrast, distillate inventories dropped by 1.3 million barrels, pushing stockpiles to levels 6% below the five-year average. The continued decline in distillate inventories, combined with strong demand growth in industrial and freight sectors, underscores the ongoing supply constraints in this market segment.
Total petroleum consumption over the past four weeks increased by 3.4% year-over-year, with gasoline demand rising by 0.9%, while distillate demand posted a more significant 7.1% increase. The discrepancy between demand trends for these two fuel types highlights the resilience of diesel consumption, which remains a key driver of refinery economics and fuel price movements.
Impact on Oil Prices and Market Sentiment
Crude oil inventories continue to rise, with West Texas Intermediate ( PYTH:WTI3! ) crude oil prices falling to $67.42 per barrel, down $13.53 from the same period last year. This price decline reflects broader uncertainty in the oil market, with factors such as weakening global demand, stable U.S. production, and lower refinery throughput contributing to the downward pressure on crude oil prices.
The combination of rising inventories and lower refining activity suggests that crude demand from refiners may remain subdued in the near term. However, if refinery utilization rebounds in the coming weeks—particularly with the transition to summer-grade gasoline production—crude inventories could begin to see drawdowns, potentially stabilizing oil prices. The strength of distillate demand may also play a role in balancing the market, as refiners look for profitable margins in diesel production.
Investment and Trading Considerations
Refinery stocks, such as Phillips 66 ( NYSE:PSX ) and Valero ( NYSE:VLO ), could see margin improvements if refiners adjust operations to favor higher-value products. Meanwhile, crude futures markets may face continued downside pressure unless demand factors provide support. Seasonal refinery maintenance could also have a lasting impact on product balances, keeping certain fuel markets tighter than others.
The rise in crude inventories, coupled with lower refinery utilization, highlights a transitional phase in the market. While short-term price pressure persists, the evolving dynamics in fuel production and demand could lead to shifts in market sentiment in the weeks ahead.