Us oil for buy.Price hits a weekly support zone, price bounced 3 times which signals a possible trend change. Wait for a break of the bearish trendline to the upside and a retest. Then long.
XTIUSD trade ideas
Falling towards pullback support?USO/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 67.64
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 65.84
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 69.05
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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CrudeOil - Elliott Wave Elliott Wave analysis on Crude Oil suggests more downside closer to $60 levels.
Oil on Demand Mode Keep on eye H1 candle movement. When It passes Simple Moving Average 200 and then 50 that means the bullish movement kicks off.
USOIL: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily USOIL prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 6.976.8$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
USOIL / TRADING IN SENSITIVE AREA / 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Current Price Context:
• The price is currently trading within a supply zone defined by the levels of 72.30 and 71.47. This suggests that there is significant selling pressure in this range.
Scenario Analysis:
• First Scenario (Bullish): If the price breaks above the supply zone (specifically, if a 4-hour candle opens above this range), it is expected to rise towards a higher supply zone between 75.37 and 76.16. This indicates a bullish outlook if the resistance level is overcome.
• Second Scenario (Bearish): If the price breaks below the supply zone, it suggests a decline towards a demand line around 69.66, with potential further drops to levels at 68.12 and 66.78. This indicates a bearish outlook if the support level is broken.
General Market Condition:
• The overall sentiment is described as being under “upward pressure,” suggesting that, despite the current resistance, there is a prevailing bullish trend or sentiment in the market.
Oil futures plunged 6% intraday on weak demandConflict in the Middle East has failed to sustain the oil risk premium
Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the crude oil market interpreted the recent events as a step towards de-escalation, leading to a gradual receding of risk premiums in the region. Over the weekend, Israel launched air strikes on missile sites inside Iran, which Iranian authorities claimed caused limited damage. Israel's choice not to target Iran's nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, coupled with Tehran's restrained response, has led traders to view the likelihood of an immediate escalation of the conflict affecting oil supplies as low.
The easing of geopolitical tensions has brought the market's attention back to underlying demand concerns and broader economic factors that continue to weigh on oil prices.
Weak demand in Asia and Opec's production strategy
Weak global demand has become the main driver of lower crude prices. Opec + has postponed a production increase originally planned for October, rescheduling it for December to avoid pushing prices down further. The alliance now aims to add 180,000 barrels a day by 2025, gradually increasing supply to stabilize prices.
On the demand side, the expected growth in global demand, especially in Asia, has not been as strong as expected. With the spread of electric vehicles around the world, analysts warn that it may not significantly boost crude oil demand.
Outlook: Short-term bearish on weak demand signals
In the short term, oil prices appear to be under pressure from weak demand signals in key markets and little impact from the conflict in the Middle East. With major technical resistance levels and lacklustre demand weighing on the market, traders should expect a bearish outlook for oil prices unless global economic conditions improve or geopolitical tensions escalate, thereby directly threatening oil supply infrastructure. Near-term risks remain tilted toward further declines in crude oil prices as supply concerns fade and demand growth fails to keep pace with expectations.
Technical analysis
From a daily perspective, WTI crude oil futures prices, after falling to a low of $68.20 at the opening on October 18, rebounded ahead of an uptrend that began on September 10. Given the price action since then, it is clear that there are still plenty of willing buyers out there, despite the constant drumbeat of bearish fundamental news.
While the opening gap may be closed in the near future, from a risk-reward perspective, it is best to enter at a lower level when trading long, allowing stops to be placed below the session low or the September 10 uptrend for protection.
If that gap were to be filled, that would mean an initial trading target would be Friday's close of $70. After that, if the initial target level is reached, the 50 moving average and resistance above $71.67 are other targets.
CRUDE OIL RISKY SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL will be retesting a resistance level soon at 72.50$
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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CRUDE OIL Short D1 (Adjusted)Sell Entry @ 77.29
S/L @ 80.43
T/P1 @ 72.62
T/P2 @ 69.42
R.R.R. @ 1/2.5
Pure Price Action Trading based on Pullback of Key Levels.
WTI CRUDE OIL Final Resistance test before $77.50WTI Crude Oil hit today the 7 day Falling Resistance. A break above it will be bullish as that has been the case on 2 similar patterns previously.
We are ahead of a Golden Cross (1h), which on the 2 previous patterns, has confirmed the uptrend.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the Falling Resistance breaks.
Targets:
1. 77.50 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is printing a pattern similar to the September run.
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CRUDE OIL Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is already making
A bearish pullback from
The horizontal resistance
Of 72.54$ so we are bearish
Biased locally so we will be
Expecting a further move down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Oil Slips Under $68 with China Economic Action on HoldFxNew s—Crude oil prices dipped after failing to maintain levels above the $72.25 resistance. The downtrend accelerated when prices breached the ascending trendline, further confirmed by RSI 14 divergence.
Currently, oil prices are oversold, suggested by both Stochastic and RSI 14 indicators. It is anticipated that crude oil prices might rebound or stabilize near higher resistance levels.
Technically, immediate resistances are set at $68.3 and the critical $69.7 barrier, supported by the Fair Value Gap. Prices are likely to consolidate around $69.7, providing a low-risk entry point for joining the bear market.
Traders and investors should closely watch these resistance levels for bearish signals, including candlestick patterns.
Article: fxnews.me
WTI crude oil has bearish conditions prevailingTVC:USOIL continued to decline during the Asian trading session on Monday (November 11), trading around 70.03 USD/barrel. As the storm's impact on the supply side waned, sentiment in favor of rising oil prices faded.
At the same time, the US Dollar index is strong and rising, putting pressure on WTI crude oil and global demand is expected to show no signs of recovery. Under many resonances, the positive outlook for WTI crude oil is still quite dim.
It is currently near the integer mark of $70. If it falls below again, a return to the previous low is likely. Essentially, continue to pay attention to changes in inventory data, as well as whether the US Dollar Index (Dxy) continues to exert strong pressure on oil prices.
On the daily chart, after crude oil TVC:USOIL Under pressure from the area around 72.39USD, readers should note that in previous publications, the recovery momentum has weakened. Meanwhile, moving below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the RSI pointing down from the 50 area will be quite good signals for bearish expectations. The first target level for bearish expectations is $68.77 in the short term, ahead of $68.11 and $66.44. Currently, WTI crude oil has technical conditions that are completely inclined to the downward trend with the price channel being the long-term trend.
During the day, the downtrend of WTI crude oil will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 70 – 68.77 – 68.11USD
Resistance: 70.56 – 72.39USD
Oil Short: Pending BreakdownOil looks like it will not be able to hold above the trendline and may breakdown soon. Sometimes, the simpler the idea, the better it will work out.
Good luck!
EDUCATION: Simplified Candlestick Psychology (Part 1)As traders, understanding candlestick patterns is fundamental to decoding market behavior. But beyond the pattern itself, there’s a deeper story being told with every candle. Just like words form a story in a book, the Open, High, Low, and Close (OHLC) of a candlestick reveals the psychological battle between buyers and sellers at a given moment in time. In this video, we’re going to break down how to read candles like a book and uncover the psychology behind each price action move.
The Anatomy of a Candlestick
Before we dive into the psychology of candles, let's refresh on the basic anatomy of a candlestick:
Open (O): The opening price of the candle, where the price starts within the time period.
High (H): The highest price reached during the candle’s time frame.
Low (L): The lowest price reached during the candle’s time frame.
Close (C): The final price when the candle closes at the end of its time frame.
Each candlestick provides valuable information about the price action during that specific time period. But what’s even more important is the psychological narrative it tells.
The Psychology Behind the OHLC
Understanding the psychology behind the Open, High, Low, and Close will give you insight into the market’s behavior and sentiment. Here’s a breakdown of what each component reveals:
The Open (O): The start of the battle. The opening price represents the market's starting point. Buyers and sellers have already made their decisions before the candle even begins, and the open shows where the price begins to unfold. If the open is near the low of the day, it indicates a bearish sentiment, while an open near the high could show bullish strength.
The High (H): The peak of the conflict. The high of the candle represents the furthest point reached by either the bulls or the bears. When the price reaches a new high, it signifies that the buyers are in control and pushing the price up. Conversely, if the high is lower than the previous candle's high, it suggests that sellers are starting to assert their influence.
The Low (L): The valley of indecision. The low of the candle is where the price falls before either the bulls or bears regroup. A low that is lower than the previous low indicates that the sellers are pushing the price downward. A higher low, on the other hand, suggests that the bulls are holding the line and potentially setting up for a rebound.
The Close (C): The conclusion of the battle. The close is the most important price point of the candlestick, as it represents where the battle between buyers and sellers has ended. The relationship between the open and close tells you who won the fight. If the close is higher than the open, buyers have won the battle. If the close is lower than the open, sellers have gained control.
Reading Candles Like a Book
When you look at a candlestick, think of it like reading a short sentence in a book. Each candle tells a small part of the market’s ongoing story, and together they form the narrative of price movement. Here's how to read the story:
Bullish Candles (Close > Open): When a candle closes higher than it opened, it tells the story of a market that was dominated by buyers. The longer the body, the stronger the buying pressure. A large body with a small wick suggests buyers were in full control with little resistance.
Bearish Candles (Close < Open): When the candle closes lower than it opened, it represents a market where sellers took charge. A long red body with little wick indicates a strong bearish move. A bearish candle with long wicks shows that although sellers were in control, there was some pushback.
Doji Candles: A doji occurs when the open and close are almost identical, signaling indecision or equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Doji candles are like a “question mark” in the story, telling us that the market is uncertain about which direction it will take next.
Engulfing Candles: An engulfing pattern, whether bullish or bearish, tells the story of a shift in momentum. If a candle completely engulfs the previous candle’s body, it signifies a strong change in sentiment—either a bullish or bearish reversal.
Putting it All Together: Candlestick Psychology in Action
Understanding the OHLC components is the first step, but it’s how these elements come together that really gives you the full psychological picture. A candlestick is like a snapshot of a battle. The open is where it starts, the high and low represent the range of movement during the battle, and the close is where the conflict resolves.
When you read candles in sequence, you begin to see the ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The story unfolds slowly, and the more you practice, the better you become at predicting the next chapter. Let me know your thoughts below!
USOIL, dailyOil prices fell more than 2% as concerns about Hurricane Rafael’s impact on Gulf of Mexico production eased, and China’s latest economic stimulus measures failed to impress oil traders. Rafael, now a category 2 hurricane, is expected to stay centered in the Gulf, reducing risks to oil output. China’s fiscal support focused on easing local government debt rather than stimulating demand, disappointing investors amid ongoing deflationary pressures and a sixth consecutive monthly decline in China’s crude imports. Despite these losses, oil prices rose over 1% last week due to expectations that new U.S sanctions on Iran and Venezuela could reduce global supply.
On the technical side, the price is currently testing the support level of the 23.6% of the daily Fibonacci retracement while the Stochastic oscillator is in neutral levels hinting that the price has the potential to move in either direction in the short term. The faster 50-day moving average is trading below the slower 100-days validating the overall bearish trend in the market, at the same time the Bollinger bands have somewhat contracted showing that volatility is slowing down in the market for crude oil. This could mean that there might be some sideway movement in the coming sessions and there might need a new catalyst to perform any significant moves.
Crude Oil Weekly Technical AnalysisCurrently, Crude Oil is forming a descending triangle on the weekly timeframe, with significant support at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. This level is a critical point; a break below it could signal further bearish momentum. Should this support level fail, I expect the price to target the next Fibonacci levels at 0.618 and potentially down to 0.786, indicating possible continuation of the downward trend.
I will monitor for confirmation signals of a breakout to the downside, such as increasing volume or bearish candlestick patterns, before confirming a short position. However, if support holds, the triangle could consolidate further, so I will remain cautious for potential reversal signs.
My Approach
1. Weekly timeframe as a guiding framework
2. Daily for pattern confirmation
2.1. Bearish Candlestick formation below support (like a bearish engulfing or strong red candle).
2.2. Rejection candles near the descending upper resistance line (like doji or shooting star).
2.3. Increase in volume on a breakdown below support to confirm seller commitment.
2.4. Decreasing volume within the triangle as consolidation continues.
2.5. Spike in volume on a failed breakout could indicate a false move and potential reversal.
3. 4-Hour for entry
Crude oil medium term holdOil has been consolidating for a while now, my view is for it to push down and tag us into our potential trade then anticipate a push towards our TP zone. This might take sometime but it is a good risk to reward return. Key zones are marked out in yellow which might serve as TP zones or entry zones on a break and retest.
USOILUSOIL: I think the next impulse for next pick will starts from this point .
Notice: USE BUY STOP to find best price .
Wti Long Price is forming a rising wedge on 15 mins , the reasonable stop loss is after it breaks the bottom of the wedge.
SELL USOILYou can sell CRUDEOIL / USOIL / CL at the same levels I placed on the chart.
Follow for more daily trades!
WTI Crude Oil Outlook: Eyeing Potential Demand Zone RecoveryWTI crude oil is currently trading around $68.25 as of this Tuesday, following a significant gap-down opening to start the week. The move lower was largely influenced by easing tensions in the Middle East, as recent developments suggested a more contained military approach, which alleviated fears of a broader conflict that could disrupt oil supply.
Upcoming U.S. Economic Data: GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus
The U.S. economic calendar this week includes key data releases, beginning with the flash Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q3 on Wednesday, projected to show an annualized growth rate of around 3%. A stronger-than-expected GDP figure could bolster the USD, adding pressure to USD-denominated assets like crude oil, as a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Following the GDP report, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will provide additional insight into U.S. labor market conditions, which could further influence dollar strength and, subsequently, WTI prices.
Technical Analysis: WTI Trading in Demand Zone
From a technical perspective, WTI crude is currently positioned within a demand zone, where buyers could be eyeing a recovery of Monday's gap-down. This demand zone represents a critical area where traders are observing whether buying interest will drive prices higher to close the gap. A recovery attempt here, with a tight stop loss, could offer a favorable risk-to-reward setup, particularly if data later in the week doesn’t significantly strengthen the USD.
Conclusion
The WTI crude oil market remains vulnerable to geopolitical developments and U.S. economic data this week, with a stronger USD potentially capping any recovery attempts. However, should the upcoming data align with current estimates or underperform, there may be room for WTI to rally from its demand zone, attempting to reclaim some of the lost ground from the recent gap-down. Traders may want to monitor these key levels and events closely, as they could provide both direction and confirmation for near-term price movement in WTI crude oil.
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