Upcoming weekly OIL analysisFA Analysis:
1- Based on the recent macro-economic data, US economy is slowing down which it's slowing down the demand.
2- Trump is making pressure on oil producer to reduce the price.
3- US is fully opening their oil production.
4- End of war in Ukraine.
All the above are very Oil bearish factors.
TA Analysis:
1- Price is making LL-LH. A continuation down is expected.
2- Price might continue directly down without making a new LH. $66 is the ST target.
XTIUSD trade ideas
USOIL(WTI) Price ActionHello Traders,
I hope you all had a great weekend and made some profits last week! As the market opens today, I’ve identified another setup on USOIL (WTI) . Here’s the breakdown:
1. Zones Marked:
- On the 4H chart, I’ve marked two key zones: a Supply Zone and a Demand Zone.
- Switching to the M30 chart, I’ve marked an additional Demand Zone.
2. Liquidity Line:
- You’ll notice a Liquidity Line on the chart. Wait for a sweep of this level before considering any trades.
3. Entry Strategy:
- Move to the M15 chart for a precise entry to lower your risk.
- Look for bullish momentum to confirm a long position.
4. Take Profit (TP):
- The TP levels will remain the same as planned.
5. Volume Observation:
- Volume is currently low, which could indicate a potential divergence. Keep an eye on this as it may impact the trade.
6. Risk Management:
- Always manage your risk carefully. Avoid trading blindly and stick to your plan.
Wishing you all the best and happy trading! Let’s make it a profitable week. Thank you!
OIL CallsThe market structure remains bullish as the Daily price broke the last swing high of $77.89 to make a new market top of $79.44.
Even though in the short term the price is retracing down to fill inefficiencies left by the last rally, we can expect a reversal of the trend at either $69 or $67 supply zones. In case of such reversal the price can with high probability retest the last swing high or the first supply zone which sits outside the current structure at $80.
On the other hand, if the price breaks below $66.80, it will signal the market is entering another bear run.
Russia-Ukraine negotiations, next oil market analysis!!On Friday (February 15), international oil prices fell slightly, mainly affected by the expectation of easing the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The market generally believes that if the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine make substantial progress, the lifting of sanctions on Russia will greatly improve the global energy supply. However, the postponement of the implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs has provided support for oil prices and limited the decline in oil prices. Brent crude oil futures closed at $7,451 per barrel, while WTI crude oil fell to $70.57 per barrel.
This week, Brent crude oil fell slightly by 0.23%, while WTI crude oil fell slightly by 0.69%. Despite the weak performance of oil prices, market sentiment remains relatively complex, greatly affected by the supply and demand pattern and global political dynamics.
Market Dynamics Analysis
Russia-Ukraine Situation: Changes in Supply and Demand Expectations Brought by Peace Talks
One of the most important market news this week was that US President Trump instructed US officials to launch Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed their willingness to reach a peace agreement in separate phone calls with Trump. Market expectations for a possible turnaround in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are rising. If a peace agreement is reached and sanctions on Russia are lifted, the pressure on global energy supply will be significantly eased.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently mentioned in its oil market report that if Russia's oil exports can circumvent new sanctions, they may still be able to remain at the current level, which will have an important impact on the global oil market. Nevertheless, the market still needs to pay attention to the further development of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and there is still great uncertainty in the final realization of the peace agreement.
US trade policy: The postponement of reciprocal tariffs provides support for oil prices
US President Trump recently announced that he plans to postpone the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and the relevant report is expected to be submitted on April 1. The market responded positively to this, and the decision to postpone tariffs has increased optimism about the outlook for global trade. IG market strategist Ye Junrong pointed out that Trump's tariff policy adjustment has warmed up the market's expectations for the global trade environment, driving a certain rebound in oil prices.
However, it is worth noting that although the postponement of tariffs has brought support to the market, the final direction of this policy is still uncertain, and it may have a greater impact on the trend of global oil prices in the future.
Global demand recovery and supply dynamics: energy market tends to balance
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase pointed out that global oil demand has increased to 103.4 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 1.4 million bpd from the same period last year. In particular, the recovery in demand for travel and heating fuels has further increased the actual demand for oil. At the same time, the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States has increased for three consecutive weeks. The latest report from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by 2 this week to 588. The increase in the number of drilling rigs usually indicates a recovery in future production and indicates that the US oil industry is gradually recovering.
However, despite the recovery in demand, supply concerns remain. The economic pressure imposed by the Trump administration on Iran may also limit the growth of crude oil supply in the short term.
Technical aspects and market sentiment: the pattern of oil price shocks
From a technical perspective, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have been operating in a shock range recently, and there is great uncertainty in the short-term trend. Although the market is optimistic about the recovery in demand, potential disturbances in global supply and geopolitical risks still put pressure on oil prices. In terms of technical indicators, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have not broken through the upper limit of the recent fluctuation range, indicating that market sentiment is still in a wait-and-see state.
Outlook for next week
Looking ahead to next week, the crude oil market will still face the test of multiple uncertainties. First, whether the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks can make substantial progress will be an important factor affecting oil prices. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine eases and sanctions on Russia are lifted, global energy supply may ease and oil prices may be under great pressure.
Second, whether the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy will continue to be postponed and its impact on global trade may continue to affect market sentiment. The market's expectations for the adjustment of the US trade policy are still relatively optimistic, which may provide some support for oil prices in the short term.
In addition, the recovery trend of global oil demand is expected to continue, especially as the global economy gradually recovers, the increase in fuel and heating demand may further drive up oil prices. However, uncertainties on the global supply side, especially supply problems in Iran and Russia, will have a lasting impact on oil price trends.
The increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States indicates that the recovery of US oil production may have an impact on market supply in the coming months. If the US energy production capacity continues to expand, oil prices may face downward pressure. TVC:USOIL
USOIL Massive Long! BUY!
My dear friends,
USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 70.49 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 71.21
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
WTI Crude The Week Ahead 17 Feb 25 The WTI Crude (US Light Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend.
The key trading level is at 7290, 50 Day Moving Average level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7290 level could target the downside support at 7100 followed by 6955 and 6870 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7290 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7360 resistance followed by 7455 levels.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is evidently falling on the 1D timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 78.25 because the pair oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
A prophecyHearken, O ye seekers of wisdom, for I have communed with the gods of trade. Verily, they have once more cast their vile spittle upon me. Mine eyes, enshrouded with their unclean saliva, were opened unto the truth. Lo, they spake unto me, and in mine accursed plight did reveal unto me a realm of boundless possibility—a vast ocean of failures and improbable designs. Henceforth, I know the one true verity. Fear not, for this vision is no idle fancy but a prophecy divinely ordained.
Be it known: this is not counsel for thy investments.
I am but the humbleth clown of the realm.
USOIL (WTI) - More downside?The price action for the WTI Crude Oil chart shows that the higher probability move appears to be to the downside, targeting the lower orange box around the 70.00 level. The recent price structure has failed to establish any convincing bullish momentum, and after testing the upper orange box around 73.00, the price has shown weakness. Without any strong buying pressure or upside catalyst visible in the current price action, the path of least resistance suggests a continuation of the downward movement toward the lower support zone.