Bullish momentum to extend?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 73.40
1st Support: 71.46
1st Resistance: 76.64
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XTIUSD trade ideas
WTI CRUDE OIL USD WEEKLY ANALYSIS Price is reacting from a weekly FVG just below the 50% of a larger range, with some bullish momentum possibly fueled by recent geopolitical tensions.
But price is still within a bearish range acting as resistance, so upside may remain limited unless structure shifts.
A daily bullish OB below the 50% of that range could offer a solid pullback entry if price retraces which is aligning with the broader narrative and upside liquidity. Im having a neutral view of this and leveraging on both sides.
What are your thoughts?
WTI Crude Oil Long Setup Amid Rising Geopolitical TensionsWTI is forming a bullish structure with potential for further upside. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are adding pressure to the supply side, supporting higher oil prices. A long position aligns with both technical momentum and the increasing risk premium.
$OIL - Strait of Hormuz closure = $120 a Barrel. MARKETSCOM:OIL - Strait of Hormuz closure = $120 a Barrel. 🛢️
~20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. (near Iran)
→ That’s over 17 million barrels per day (2023 data).
If Strait of Hormuz get closed or war escalates in this area, I'm expecting MARKETSCOM:OIL to sky-rocket to $120 a barrel.
Weekly Break-out + Hammer candle confirmed. ✅
What's your prediction? Will the war escalate and create global oil disruption?
WTI USOIL WEEKLY CHARTKey Offshore Oil and Gas Installations at Risk of Iranian Attack
Based on recent escalations and Iran's retaliatory capabilities, the following offshore installations are most vulnerable:
Strait of Hormuz Infrastructure
Why at risk: A critical global chokepoint handling 21 million barrels of oil daily. Iran has repeatedly threatened closure if provoked.
Potential targets: Tanker routes, underwater pipelines, and monitoring stations.
Qatar’s North Field Gas Facilities
Why at risk: Directly adjacent to Iran’s South Pars field (recently attacked by Israel). Shared reservoirs mean disruptions could cascade.
Vulnerability: Iran could target Qatari platforms to amplify global gas shortages.
Saudi/UAE Offshore Fields
Key sites:
Saudi Arabia’s Safaniya (world’s largest offshore oil field).
UAE’s Upper Zakum oil field.
Why at risk: Iran views Gulf states as Israeli allies; striking them would disrupt U.S.-aligned economies.
Israeli Mediterranean Gas Rigs
Leviathan and Tamar fields:
Provide 90% of Israel’s electricity.
Already targeted by Iranian proxies (e.g., Hezbollah rockets in 2023).
Bahrain/Kuwait Offshore Facilities
Strategic value: Proximity to Iran enables rapid drone/missile strikes. Past attacks (e.g., 2019 Aramco) demonstrate capability.
Why These Targets?
Retaliatory logic: Iran’s energy infrastructure (e.g., South Pars) was damaged by Israeli strikes. Targeting adversaries’ assets aligns with its "escalate to deter" strategy.
Global leverage: Disrupting Hormuz or major fields could spike oil prices 30–50%, pressuring Western governments.
Technical feasibility: Iran’s naval drones, cruise missiles, and mines can penetrate offshore defenses.
Immediate Threats
Target Risk Level Potential Impact
Strait of Hormuz Critical Global oil prices surge; 20% of LNG shipments halted
Qatar’s North Field High 10% of global LNG supply disrupted; Europe/Asia energy crisis
Israeli Gas Rigs High Israel’s energy security crippled; regional conflict escalation
Conclusion
Iran’s most likely retaliation targets are offshore installations in the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar, and Israeli Mediterranean fields, leveraging proximity and asymmetric tactics. Such attacks would aim to inflict maximum economic damage while avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S. or NATO. Global energy markets face severe disruption if hostilities escalate further.
A successful breakout above this descending trendline and resistance zone (near $74–$75) would confirm a bullish reversal, potentially opening the way for further upside toward $80 and $100 as next target.
US crude inventories have declined recently, reducing oversupply fears and supporting prices.
Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, while supply increases are more modest.
OPEC+ decisions to maintain production cuts or limit increases have also contributed to price support.
Summary
Oil prices are testing and potentially breaking out of a long-term descending trendline formed since mid-2022.
breakout will be long buy hope that we see 80$ per barrel.
#usoil #oil
Weekly crude oil chart shows continued bullish outlook.Last week's candlestick chart closed with a strong bullish candle at the channel's upper boundary. This week's close formed a pin bar.
Two consecutive weeks of candlestick patterns.Creating a Harami pattern
Strong bullish signals
Patiently observe market developments.
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps youThe Middle East currently resembles a barrel filled with gunpowder, ready to explode at any moment. Israel and Iran continue to attack each other—Israel bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, while Iran fired missiles at Israeli cities. More worryingly, the U.S. may decide to join the conflict within the next two weeks, and five U.S.-UK aircraft carriers are converging on the Middle East, akin to lighting a match beside the powder keg. However, Iran has also held talks with European nations in Geneva, stating that if Israel halts its attacks first, it is willing to discuss nuclear issues. This creates a paradox: while the risk of war grows, there is also hope for negotiations—similar to two market factions, one fearing war will drive oil prices higher, and the other believing talks could push prices down.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transport corridor, sees massive oil shipments pass through daily. Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the strait, and if it does, oil prices could skyrocket like a rocket. So far, however, Iran has not taken such action, and the market is watching closely to see if it will.
Trading Strategy
If oil prices rebound to the $74.5–$75 range and candlestick charts show prices stalling (forming consecutive long upper shadows) with trading volume decreasing rather than increasing, consider opening light short positions with 25% of funds. When prices retreat to $73.5, close 40% of short positions to take profits. If prices continue to fall, hold the remaining short positions for a target of $72.5. However, if prices break through $76, immediately trigger a stop loss to prevent further losses from a potential upward trend.
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps you
USOIL sell@74.5~75
SL:76
TP:73.5~73
USOIL BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 73.94
Target Level: 72.14
Stop Loss: 75.12
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USOIL may saturated and is about to swing downUSOIL may reach a saturation point and is likely to swing down, at least in the Short Term.
Technically, the price has tested the upper boundary of the descending channel near the key psychological resistance at $75 per barrel but failed to close above it, despite a brief breakout. This reflects the strength of the 75 resistance zone.
Moreover, the RSI entered the overbought zone, and Bearish Divergence between price and RSI occured, which further increases the probability of a correction.
Therefore, at this stage, crude oil prices potentially pull back to the $70 level before determining the next directional move.
From a fundamental perspective, the recent surge in oil prices has been primarily driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
However, historically, the situation tends to cause only short-lived spikes in oil prices. Sustainable gains in oil prices require real demand support. Although the conflict persists, markets are less reactive, likely due to the absence of supply chain disruptions or transport route closures.
Additionally, the US decision to hold the strike and increase diplomat time has given investors time to adjust their portfolios, potentially for profit-taking from previously accumulated long positions.
As a result, oil prices may pull back during this period.
Now, considering the long-term factors, there are several reasons why oil prices are unlikely to rise significantly beyond The current levels:
Oversupply:
Global crude oil production has been increasing, particularly from non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Canada, and Brazil. At the same time, OPEC+ members have been gradually raising their output as well, resulting in a market where supply exceeds demand.
Sluggish Demand Growth:
Oil demand is growing slowly due to a lackluster global economic outlook, the rising adoption of electric vehicles, and ongoing efforts to reduce fossil fuel consumption. Additionally, increasing risks such as new taxation and geopolitical tensions have led to investment slowdowns in certain regions.
Rising Inventories:
Global oil stockpiles have been steadily increasing, exerting downward pressure on prices.
Major entities have released their West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. J.P. Morgan projects prices at $66 per barrel for 2025 and $58 for 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) offers a slightly different outlook, forecasting $62 per barrel in 2025 and $59 in 2026. Meanwhile, Trading Economics anticipates a price of $63.28 by the end of Q2 2025, rising to $65.70 in 2026.
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
WTI CRUDE OIL: There is no better time to sell that this.WTI Crude Oil has turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.048, MACD = 2.830, ADX = 41.529) and this is technically the most efficient level to sell on the long term. Not only is that the top of the dotted Channel Down but last week the price got very close to the 1W MA200, which has produced the last 3 major rejections since the week of August 12th 2024. Technically the market still has some room to move upwards and test it but since it rose purely on the latest Middle East conflict, it is more likely than not to see an equally quick price deflation and rebalancing. The earlier bearish waves (September 2023 onwards), initially targeted the 0.786 Fibonacci level and then bounced. That translates to TP = 61.00 (at least) towards the end of the year.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USOIL FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS USOIL (WTI Crude) is currently trading near the 72.00 level and is setting up for a potential breakout from a long-standing descending channel on the higher time frame (3D chart). Price has approached the upper boundary of this bearish channel after a strong bullish rally in recent sessions. This indicates growing bullish momentum, and any sustained breakout above the descending trendline could open the path toward the 98.00 zone, a major structural target based on previous price action and Fibonacci projections.
The recent bullish surge in crude oil prices has been fueled by a combination of supply-side constraints and renewed optimism around global demand. OPEC+ continues to show discipline in supply management, and geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions are adding risk premiums. Furthermore, the Fed’s recent signals of a potential pause in tightening, combined with an improving outlook for Chinese demand recovery, are creating a supportive environment for commodities, particularly oil. These fundamental tailwinds align with the technical structure hinting at an upside breakout.
Technically, USOIL has broken back above a critical mid-channel support level and is now challenging the descending resistance line. The most recent impulsive candles suggest strong buyer conviction. If this momentum holds, we could see a retest followed by continuation toward the 98.00 psychological level. The structure also supports a higher low formation, which is another bullish signal for long-term traders watching the macro channel breakout.
From a trading standpoint, this setup is high probability with a well-defined invalidation zone below 65.00. The confluence of macro catalysts, technical breakout formation, and seasonal demand trends makes this a compelling bullish opportunity. I am closely monitoring price action for confirmation to go long on the breakout and ride the potential wave toward the upper supply region near 98.00.
U
USOIL BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 73.10
Target Level: 68.31
Stop Loss: 76.29
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 3h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
WTI above $75 on fears of US involvement in Israel-Iran conflictThe Israel-Iran situation is quite different this time and with Trump announcing that *we* now have full control over Iranian skies, suggesting the US is entering the fray – hardly a surprise to be honest - this is not going to end well. The conflict may get far worse in the short-term, and this will send shockwaves through the oil markets – especially if there are disruptions in the Strait of Hurmuz. Oil prices could easily spike to $100 and higher in the worst-case scenario. So, the situation is quite serious, unfortunately. Let's hope that it quickly de-escalates and lives are not lost.
But make no mistake, this could get really big - especially with headlines like these coming out in the last few minutes:
*US OFFICIALS SAY TRUMP 'SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING' STRIKE ON IRAN: AXIOS;
*TRUMP TO MAKE POLICY DECISION ON ISRAEL-IRAN: AXIOS
*IRAN WILL SOON LAUNCH 'PUNITIVE' OPERATION AGAINST ISRAEL: IRNA
The picture is looking quite grim, unfortunately.
by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
OIL: THE CHART THAT COULD TIP THE WORLDWTI Crude just bounced hard off the $65 channel support, tagging resistance at $76 — and what happens next isn’t just about price. It’s about power.
Zoom into this chart:
We're sitting at a directional pivot with two possible outcomes:
1️⃣ If this was a truncated 5th wave, the structure is complete. Any further war escalation could be the catalyst for oil to break resistance — dragging down risk assets, including CRYPTOCAP:BTC and equities.
2️⃣ If wave 5 isn’t done, we’ll likely see one more sharp leg down before oil launches. Either way, this is a high-stakes Elliott Wave setup with global macro consequences.
Chart with FIB Levels:
You'll see the wave I’ve marked (3) is messy, and on lower timeframes, that may hint at a truncated move worth watching.
Why this matters:
Over 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint controlled by Iran. If conflict escalates, that line gets squeezed… and oil price explodes.
Price to watch:
$76 resistance.
If oil breaks, the markets will react fast.
If it fails, we might get one more correction and maybe some relief from the sideways pain we’ve seen across risk assets.
Remember the COVID Crash?
Oil literally went below zero in April 2020. That wasn't just a chart anomaly, it was a global demand collapse. Traders were paying to get rid of oil because there was nowhere to store it. That moment marked a generational low, and what followed was a powerful multi-year 5 wave up.
Now look where we are:
That same COVID low helped form the base of the current Elliott Wave structure. The fact we’re back testing levels that once sparked global panic is no coincidence.
If you’ve been here before, you’ll see the signs. The charts always leave traces. And if this is the end of wave 5, it could be the start of a whole new macro move.
TLDR:
Stop trading headlines.
Trade the structure.
This chart is telling us everything.
OIL 2 Best Places For Buy Very Clear , Don`t Miss This 1000 PipsHere is my opinion on oil , we have a very aggressive movement to upside and this is normal right now , i`m looking to buy this Pair if the price go back to retest my support and this will be the best place to buy it for me , and if the price moved directly without retest it i will wait the price to break the other res and then i can enter a buy trade and targeting the highest level the price touch it , also if the price go back to retest my support and go up and closed above the other res i will add one more entry with the same target.
USOIL Bullish breakout from symmetrical triangle pattern🚨 USOIL Breakout Alert! 🚨
1H Time Frame | Symmetrical Triangle Breakout
Crude oil (USOIL) has broken out bullishly from a symmetrical triangle pattern — confirming strong upward momentum. 📈
🎯 Entry Level: 74.20
📍 Technical Targets:
1st Resistance: 75.70
2nd Resistance: 76.80
This setup signals a potential continuation of bullish momentum. Keep an eye on volume confirmation and price action near resistance levels.
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments!
📲 Like, follow, and join us for more real-time market insights.
Trade smart
,
– Livia 😜
USoilLatest news. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the restrictions on the import and export of oil and natural gas will increase greatly. Because 20% of the world's oil and natural gas exports come from the Strait of Hormuz. So the trend of geopolitics will affect the closing and opening of this important checkpoint. If the increase in geopolitics really reaches this point, the price of oil may rise to 90$-100$. This is an excellent trading opportunity for investors who like to trade oil. But at present, this is an option for Iran to negotiate. Rather than a real closure, after all, the incident has not developed to this situation. If you like to trade oil. You can also follow me. Get brand new trading opportunities and make profits. Do not trade independently to avoid losses.
Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to Crude Oil Trend Analysis
(1) Geopolitics: Tensions Propel Oil Price Expectations
The Middle East has long been a "powder keg" for the crude oil market, and recent developments have intensified tensions. Military conflicts between Iran and Israel continue to escalate—Iran’s latest attacks injured approximately 50 people in Israel. Controlling the Strait of Hormuz, through which 30% of global seaborne crude oil passes, Iran’s strategic position is pivotal. After the conflict escalated, Iran threatened to block the strait, instantly igniting international oil prices. Brent crude surged to around $79 per barrel. As long as the conflict persists, market fears of crude supply disruptions—like an invisible hand—will continue to underpin price gains.
(2) Supply Side: Interplay of Production Increases and Geopolitical Risks
OPEC+ previously announced plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day, but actual output growth has fallen short of market expectations. With current Middle East tensions, the feasibility of this plan remains uncertain. If Iran’s crude production and exports are constrained by the conflict, global supply could tighten. In the U.S., shale oil production remains unstable, affected by technical, cost, and policy factors. Thus, the supply side is fraught with uncertainty: production increase expectations may exert downward pressure on prices, while geopolitical risks could tighten supply outlooks and push prices higher.
(3) Demand Side: Battle Between Seasonality and Economic Prospects
From a seasonal perspective, the northern hemisphere’s summer travel peak has boosted demand for petroleum products like gasoline and jet fuel. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows U.S. crude oil inventories have declined for several consecutive weeks, indicating rising market demand. However, the global economic environment remains bleak: trade protectionism, tariff policies, and other factors have slowed global growth, constraining crude demand. Major economies like China and Europe have failed to meet oil demand projections. Thus, the demand side is torn: seasonal factors provide support, but economic headwinds act as a drag.
Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
USOIL BUY@72.5~73
SL:71.5
TP:74~75
USOIL – Reclaiming the Energy Narrative | WaverVanir Macro Rever📉 Chart Thesis:
After nearly three years of structural decline from the $129 peak, crude oil (USOIL) is approaching a confluence zone of historic Fibonacci support ($56–$60) and a multi-year descending trendline.
This zone may mark the bottom of a long-term accumulation phase.
🧠 Strategic Perspective (WaverVanir View):
“It’s time to take back our resource. Not just politically—but economically, institutionally, and structurally.”
WaverVanir International LLC sees this setup as a rare macro pivot. This isn’t about short-term fluctuations—it’s about the global realignment of resource value in a world where:
Central banks are overleveraged
Strategic petroleum reserves are drawn down
War premium is mispriced
Real assets are undervalued
📊 Key Levels:
Support Zone: $56.04 (historical institutional buy zone)
Breakout Trigger: Trendline above $67.00
Target 1: $101.35 (0.786 Fib)
Target 2: $129.42 (1.0 Fib)
Target 3: $160.58 (1.236 Fib projection)
⚠️ Risk Disclosure:
We are not yet capitalized but actively building a legally compliant funding vehicle. No capital is currently allocated. This post is part of our vision publication cycle to build trust and transparency in WaverVanir’s thesis.
📌 Follow WaverVanir International LLC for conviction-based macro trade ideas at the intersection of data science, price action, and risk strategy.
#USOIL #MacroTrading #Commodities #WaverVanir #TradingView #QuantMacro #EnergyRevolution #FibonacciAnalysis #MarketStructure #EmergingFund
USOILKey Offshore Oil and Gas Installations at Risk of Iranian Attack
Based on recent escalations and Iran's retaliatory capabilities, the following offshore installations are most vulnerable:
Strait of Hormuz Infrastructure
Why at risk: A critical global chokepoint handling 21 million barrels of oil daily. Iran has repeatedly threatened closure if provoked.
Potential targets: Tanker routes, underwater pipelines, and monitoring stations.
Qatar’s North Field Gas Facilities
Why at risk: Directly adjacent to Iran’s South Pars field (recently attacked by Israel). Shared reservoirs mean disruptions could cascade.
Vulnerability: Iran could target Qatari platforms to amplify global gas shortages.
Saudi/UAE Offshore Fields
Key sites:
Saudi Arabia’s Safaniya (world’s largest offshore oil field).
UAE’s Upper Zakum oil field.
Why at risk: Iran views Gulf states as Israeli allies; striking them would disrupt U.S.-aligned economies.
Israeli Mediterranean Gas Rigs
Leviathan and Tamar fields:
Provide 90% of Israel’s electricity.
Already targeted by Iranian proxies (e.g., Hezbollah rockets in 2023).
Bahrain/Kuwait Offshore Facilities
Strategic value: Proximity to Iran enables rapid drone/missile strikes. Past attacks (e.g., 2019 Aramco) demonstrate capability.
Why These Targets?
Retaliatory logic: Iran’s energy infrastructure (e.g., South Pars) was damaged by Israeli strikes. Targeting adversaries’ assets aligns with its "escalate to deter" strategy.
Global leverage: Disrupting Hormuz or major fields could spike oil prices 30–50%, pressuring Western governments.
Technical feasibility: Iran’s naval drones, cruise missiles, and mines can penetrate offshore defenses.
Immediate Threats
Target Risk Level Potential Impact
Strait of Hormuz Critical Global oil prices surge; 20% of LNG shipments halted
Qatar’s North Field High 10% of global LNG supply disrupted; Europe/Asia energy crisis
Israeli Gas Rigs High Israel’s energy security crippled; regional conflict escalation
Conclusion
Iran’s most likely retaliation targets are offshore installations in the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar, and Israeli Mediterranean fields, leveraging proximity and asymmetric tactics. Such attacks would aim to inflict maximum economic damage while avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S. or NATO. Global energy markets face severe disruption if hostilities escalate further.
A successful breakout above this descending trendline and resistance zone (near $74–$75) would confirm a bullish reversal, potentially opening the way for further upside toward $80 and $100 as next target.
US crude inventories have declined recently, reducing oversupply fears and supporting prices.
Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, while supply increases are more modest.
OPEC+ decisions to maintain production cuts or limit increases have also contributed to price support.
Summary
Oil prices are testing and potentially breaking out of a long-term descending trendline formed since mid-2022.
A confirmed breakout above the $74–$75 resistance zone would mark a bullish reversal, supported by tightening supply, geopolitical risks, and improving demand.
Traders should watch for confirmation signals and potential corrective pullbacks before further upside.
Failure to hold above key support levels could resume the downtrend.
#usoil #oil
weekly price chart of WTI Crude Oil (CFDs on Crude Oil - WTI) 🔍 Key Observations:
1. Downtrend Line (Black Diagonal Line)
The chart has a descending trendline drawn from a previous high (around mid-2022), connecting lower highs.
This trendline represents a long-term resistance level — each time the price approached it, it was rejected.
2. Support Zone (Green Box)
A horizontal green zone marks a strong support area, roughly between $62–$67.
This area has been tested multiple times in the past (as both support and resistance), indicating it's a key level where buying interest appears.
3. Recent Price Action
The price recently dipped below the green support zone, forming a false breakdown or bear trap, then strongly rebounded back above it.
The price is now around $73.20, approaching the descending trendline (resistance).
🔧 Technical Interpretation:
Trend: Overall long-term downtrend (as seen from the descending trendline).
Current Momentum: Strong bullish bounce from the support zone.
Key Resistance: Around $74–$76, where price meets the descending trendline.
Key Support: Around $62–$67, the highlighted green zone.
🔮 What to Watch Next:
Bullish Scenario: If price breaks above the descending trendline and sustains above $76, it could signal a trend reversal or breakout.
Bearish Scenario: If price gets rejected at the trendline, it may retest the $67 zone or lower.
Volume: Not shown here, but would be important to confirm the breakout.