Oil Prices Up as Trump Delays EU Tariffs (Temporary Relief?) The global oil market, a sensitive barometer of economic health and geopolitical stability, registered a slight uptick in prices following the news that the Trump administration would extend the deadline for imposing new tariffs on a range of European Union goods. This minor rally, however, comes against a backdrop of a broader downtrend that has characterized the oil markets since mid-January. The persistent downward pressure has been largely attributed to the chilling effect of existing and threatened tariffs, not just between the US and the EU, but on a global scale, which have cast a long shadow over the outlook for global energy demand.
To understand the significance of this deadline extension and its nuanced impact on oil prices, it's crucial to first appreciate the environment in which it occurred. For several months, the dominant narrative surrounding oil has been one of demand-side anxiety. President Trump's "America First" trade policy, which has seen the imposition of sweeping tariffs on goods from various countries, most notably China, and the persistent threat of more to come against allies like the European Union, has injected a significant dose of uncertainty into the global economic system.
Tariffs, at their core, are taxes on imported goods. Their imposition typically leads to a cascade of negative economic consequences. Businesses that rely on imported components face higher input costs, which can either be absorbed, thereby reducing profit margins, or passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Higher consumer prices can dampen spending, a key driver of economic growth. Furthermore, the uncertainty created by an unpredictable trade policy environment often leads businesses to postpone investment decisions and hiring, further stagnating economic activity.
This economic slowdown, or even the fear of it, directly translates into weaker demand for oil. Manufacturing activity, a significant consumer of energy, tends to decline. Global shipping and freight, which rely heavily on bunker fuel and diesel, slow down as trade volumes shrink. Consumer demand for gasoline and jet fuel can also wane if economic hardship leads to reduced travel and leisure activities. The retaliatory measures often taken by targeted nations – imposing their own tariffs on US goods – only serve to exacerbate this negative feedback loop, creating a tit-for-tat escalation that further erodes business confidence and global trade flows.
It is this overarching concern about a tariff-induced global economic slowdown that has been weighing heavily on oil prices since the middle of January. Market participants, from large institutional investors to commodity traders, have been pricing in the potential for significantly reduced oil consumption in the months and years ahead if these trade disputes were to escalate or become entrenched. Every new tariff announcement or threat has typically sent ripples of concern through the market, often pushing oil prices lower.
Against this gloomy backdrop, the news of an extension to the tariff deadline on EU goods, while not a resolution, acts as a momentary pause button on further immediate escalation. It offers a temporary reprieve, a brief window where the worst-case scenario of new, damaging tariffs being instantly applied is averted. This is likely why oil prices "edged higher."
The market's reaction can be interpreted in several ways. Firstly, it reflects a slight easing of immediate downside risk to the European economy. The EU is a massive economic bloc and a significant consumer of oil. The imposition of new US tariffs on key European goods, such as automobiles or luxury products, would undoubtedly have a detrimental impact on European industries, potentially tipping already fragile economies closer to recession. An extension of the deadline pushes this immediate threat further down the road, offering a sliver of hope that a negotiated solution might yet be found, or at least that the economic pain is deferred. This deferral, however slight, can lead to a marginal upward revision of short-term oil demand expectations from the region.
Secondly, the extension can be seen as a signal, however faint, that dialogue and negotiation are still possible. In the fraught world of international trade diplomacy, any indication that parties are willing to continue talking rather than immediately resorting to punitive measures can be interpreted positively by markets. It reduces, fractionally, the "uncertainty premium" that has been built into asset prices, including oil.
However, it is crucial to temper any optimism. The fact that oil only "edged higher" rather than surged indicates the market's deep-seated caution. An extension is not a cancellation. The underlying threat of tariffs remains very much on the table. The fundamental disagreements that led to the tariff threats in the first place have not been resolved. Therefore, while the immediate pressure point has been alleviated, the chronic condition of trade uncertainty persists.
The oil market is acutely aware that this extension could simply be a tactical move, buying time for political reasons without altering the fundamental trajectory of trade policy. If, at the end of the extended period, no agreement is reached and tariffs are indeed imposed, the negative impact on oil demand expectations would likely resurface with renewed force. The market is therefore likely to adopt a "wait and see" approach, with traders hesitant to make significant bullish bets based solely on a deadline postponement.
Furthermore, the US-EU trade dynamic is just one piece of a larger global puzzle. The ongoing trade tensions with China, for instance, continue to be a major drag on global growth projections and, by extension, oil demand. Progress, or lack thereof, on that front often has a more substantial impact on oil prices than developments in the US-EU relationship, given the sheer scale of US-China trade and China's role as the world's largest oil importer.
The slight rise in oil prices also needs to be seen in the context of other market-moving factors. Supply-side dynamics, such as OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East, and fluctuations in US shale output, constantly interact with demand-side sentiment. A deadline extension on EU tariffs might provide a small boost, but it can be easily overshadowed by a surprise inventory build, an unexpected increase in OPEC production, or signs of weakening economic data from other major economies.
In conclusion, the decision by the Trump administration to extend the tariff deadline on EU goods offered a moment of temporary relief to an oil market that has been under duress from trade war anxieties. This relief manifested as a marginal increase in oil prices, reflecting a slight reduction in immediate perceived risk to global economic activity and oil demand, particularly from Europe. However, this should not be mistaken for a fundamental shift in market sentiment or a resolution to the underlying trade disputes. The threat of tariffs remains, and the broader concerns about a global economic slowdown fueled by protectionist policies continue to loom large. The oil market's cautious reaction underscores the prevailing uncertainty, suggesting that while this extension provides a brief breathing space, the path ahead for oil prices will continue to be heavily influenced by the unpredictable currents of international trade policy.
XTIUSD trade ideas
USOIL:Long at 61.3-61.5
Last week's long target has been completed, the current decline is mainly due to concerns that global supply growth may exceed demand growth, from the technical trend, the objective trend of the middle line downward, short term long and short frequently alternate, pay attention to the support point of 60.3-60.5 within the day. Considering that it has been around this point of shock and not broken, short - term trading to do more.
So the trading strategy :BUY@61.3-61.5 TP@62.5-62.7
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USOIL:Go long first
Crude oil short-term trend to maintain weak shock upward rhythm, K line closed long lower shadow line, there are signs of rebound. Short - term moving average system gradually long arrangement, relying on oil prices, short - term objective trend direction to upward. It is expected that the intraday trend of crude oil will continue to extend upward, hitting around 62.8-63
Recommended Trading Strategies:
61-61.2 range to be long, short-term target to see 62, break through the target to see 62.8-63
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Forecast of the market trend at the opening on Monday”Oil prices remained under pressure this week, experiencing a notable decline due to multiple factors. As of Friday's Asian morning session, Brent crude futures fell 37 cents to $64.07 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures dropped 39 cents to $60.81 per barrel. Brent crude fell 2% for the week, while WTI declined 2.7%.
Key Drivers of Oil Price Weakness
Stronger U.S. Dollar
The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and fiscal spending bill, boosting the U.S. dollar index against a basket of currencies.
As oil is dollar-denominated, a stronger dollar typically reduces purchasing power for non-USD buyers, suppressing oil prices.
Supply-Demand Sensitivity and Market Sentiment
The combination of dollar strength and expectations of OPEC+ production increases has intensified bearish sentiment in the oil market.
While demand is gradually recovering, significant upward pressure on supply—including potential output hikes from OPEC+ and rising U.S. shale production—has created near-term volatility.
Technical Outlook and Trading Strategy
Short-Term Trend: Oil prices are likely to remain in a sideways-to-downward oscillation due to supply-demand imbalances.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $63.0–$63.5 per barrel (short-term overhead resistance).
Support: $60.5–$60.0 per barrel (critical near-term support zone).
Trading Approach:
Consider rebound shorting as the primary strategy, with retracement buying as a secondary approach.
Use rallies toward $63.0–$63.5 to initiate short positions, targeting support at $60.5–$60.0, with stop-losses above $64.0.
Note: Monitor OPEC+ policy updates and U.S. inventory data for potential shifts in market sentiment. Volatility may rise ahead of key economic indicators.
WTI - Bullish Momentum Targets $65US Light Crude has demonstrated remarkable resilience after experiencing a significant correction from March highs around $72 down to the $55 support zone in late April. The commodity has since staged an impressive recovery, climbing steadily from those April lows to current levels near $62, effectively reclaiming more than half of the previous decline. This recovery pattern suggests strong underlying demand and buying interest at lower levels, with crude oil successfully breaking above key resistance areas during its ascent. The current price action shows the market consolidating near recent highs while maintaining an upward bias, with the technical structure indicating further upside potential toward the resistance zone highlighted around $65. Given the strong bounce from support, sustained momentum, and the overall recovery trajectory, the higher probability scenario favors a continuation of the bullish move targeting the upper resistance band.
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USOIL: Market of Sellers
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell USOIL.
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USOIL: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 64.706 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 65.295. and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
USOIL Will Go Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 61.359.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 64.395 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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USOIL:The strategy of going short
USOIL: Same thinking, still maintain the short strategy. Friends with short orders at 63.3-63.5 continue to wait, can increase short orders near 63.8, the target is 62.5-62.3 unchanged
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Crude Oil (WTI) Daily Chart AnalysisCrude Oil (WTI) Daily Chart Analysis
Pattern Formed:
A Symmetrical Triangle formation is clearly visible.
Context:
The prior trend leading into the triangle was bearish.
Typically, in technical analysis, a triangle after a downtrend is considered a continuation pattern — meaning there is a higher probability that the price will break downward.
The triangle appears to have completed its 5-wave internal structure (ABCDE), a classical behavior of contracting triangles.
Breakout Expectation:
After a completed 5-wave triangle, a breakout is imminent.
Directional Bias: Since this triangle is forming after a strong downtrend, the higher probability is for a bearish breakout.
However, triangles can break either way, and when they do, the move is often impulsive.
Potential Scenarios:
Bearish Breakdown (High Probability):
A downside break would likely trigger a sharp fall.
Immediate support levels to watch post-breakout:
$60.00
$56.50
$46.75 (measured move — target derived from the height of the triangle projected downward)
Bullish Breakout (Low Probability but Possible):
In case of an upside breakout, resistance zones are:
$72.00 (supply zone + previous highs)
$78.00
Upside could see sharp momentum but is less likely unless there is strong fundamental support (e.g., geopolitical tensions, production cuts).
Volume Confirmation:
Volume typically contracts during triangle formation. Post-breakout, volume expansion is essential to confirm the breakout direction.
Indicators (Suggested Additional Confirmations):
Watch for RSI — if divergence forms, could signal weakness.
Monitor MACD for crossovers at breakout zones.
Summary
Triangle Completed: 5-wave structure inside the triangle — ready for breakout.
Bias: Bearish continuation pattern — higher probability of a downward move.
Trigger: Breakout of the triangle boundary with volume expansion will confirm the next move.
Targets (Post-Breakout):
Downside: $60 ➔ $56.5 ➔ $46.75
Upside (less probable): $72 ➔ $78
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is based purely on technical chart patterns and historical price action. Trading and investing involve substantial risk. Always perform your own due diligence or consult a financial advisor.
Crude Oil is Building Momentum for a BreakoutDuring the U.S. trading session on Thursday, international oil prices fluctuated higher, with U.S. crude oil currently trading near $63.55 per barrel. Despite the intraday volatility, international oil prices remain under downward pressure, primarily influenced by two key factors.
First, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that as of last week, U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories increased more than expected, signaling weakening refined product demand in the world’s largest economy. This development has sparked investor concerns about whether the U.S. summer driving season can sustain demand growth, leading to a ~1% decline in oil prices on Wednesday.
The current crude oil market is caught between supply and demand headwinds:
Supply-side pressures: OPEC+’s production increase plan and Saudi Arabia’s strategic price cuts have created short-term bearish sentiment.
Demand-side uncertainties: The unexpected rise in U.S. refined product inventories has amplified market doubts about the vigor of global consumption recovery.
Additionally, the escalation of international trade frictions has further dampened risk appetite, exacerbating downward pressure on prices.
In the short term, oil prices are likely to continue oscillating within the $60–$65 per barrel range. Market participants should closely monitor U.S. macroeconomic data and OPEC+’s compliance with its production policies for directional cues.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Trading Strategy:
buy@61.5-62.0
TP:63.0-63.5
US OIL LONG POSITION RESULT Oil had now formed a triple bottom pattern, and also holding the minor Support Trendline indicating signs for bullisd potential.
Price action did move in our direction, just couldn't break above the orange resistance zone, and then reversed and went straight down to our Sl (my bad though, Should've moved sl to entry price to make it safe).
Better Luck and TA next time.
USOIL Will Grow! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 62.890.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 68.865 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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US OIL LONG RESULT Oil price broke out of the falling expanding wedge, with some good volume in Confluence woth the double pattern (as at entry) and also holding the minor support Trendline I decided to open a long trade to the next supply zone.
Price did move in our direction, just dumped down to grab liquidity at the support again hitting our SL.
Was a B" setup so we'll move on.
WTI Oil H1 | Overlap support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 61.52 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 59.60 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support.
Take profit is at 63.76 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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USOIL:tay long
USOIL: The short-term objective trend is oscillating. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator is above the zero axis, showing a top divergence, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening. In the first two trading days, the overall rhythm trend was alternating between primary and secondary, and it is expected that the intraday crude oil trend will still maintain the probability of shock upward, so maintain the long idea.
Trading can wait for the retracement after the long.
Trading Strategy:
BUY@62.8-63
TP: 63.8-64
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Potential bearish drop?USO/USD has reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 64.42
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 66.35
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 56.94
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Maintain high-level volatility.In early trading on Wednesday in the Asian market, international oil prices fell slightly, mainly affected by the easing of supply-demand balance and the drag on the global economic outlook from trade concerns. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.1% to $65.58 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude oil fell 0.1% to $63.32. This decline came after both rose about 2% in the previous trading day, hitting two-week highs. Tuesday's rally was driven by two main factors: first, large-scale wildfires in Canada since early May, which caused thousands of people to evacuate and disrupted part of crude oil production; second, markets expected Asian countries to reject the nuclear agreement draft proposed by the United States, thereby maintaining sanctions on the major oil-producing country and reducing crude oil supply. The current international oil market is in a game of multiple forces. On the one hand, geopolitical factors and natural disasters have increased short-term supply risks; on the other hand, OPEC+ production expansion and trade concerns have constrained the sustainability of price rebounds. In the absence of clear policy directions and confirmation from inventory data, oil prices may remain volatile at high levels.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: epeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Trading Strategy:
buy@62.0-62.5
TP:63.5-64.0
Crude oil is about to end its shock outbreak
💡Message Strategy
International oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Tuesday, mainly due to rising risks of supply disruptions. Iran is expected to reject a nuclear deal proposal from the United States, which would have paved the way for easing sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
In addition, wildfires in Alberta, Canada, also caused some oil and gas production to be suspended, exacerbating market concerns about supply.
Brent crude rose 0.86% to $65.20 a barrel; U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.75% to $63.00. This continued the previous trading day's nearly 3% increase.
Geopolitical tensions also added to market concerns. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has increased uncertainty in the global supply chain and geopolitical risk premiums.
Oil prices were also supported by OPEC+'s slowing production increase. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided at a meeting last week to increase production by only a small 411,000 barrels per day in July, the same as in the previous two months and lower than the large increase some market participants had expected.
International market conditions have a great impact on crude oil trends. Currently, various reasons have indicated an upward trend in crude oil, paving the way for the upcoming rising market.
📊Technical aspects
Technical analysis shows that the daily chart of US crude oil (WTI) is strong and still has room for upward movement in the short term. After the current WTI crude oil price stabilized at the integer mark of $61, it closed positively for several consecutive days, showing an obvious upward channel pattern.
In terms of technical indicators, the MACD fast and slow lines have formed a golden cross, and the kinetic energy column continues to expand, indicating that the bulls are strengthening; the RSI is near 65, not entering the overbought range, but showing good upward momentum.
In addition, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages continue to diverge upward after the golden cross, supporting the oil price trend. If the oil price can effectively break through the resistance level of $63.50, it is expected to challenge the previous high of $65.80;
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position: 62.00-62.50