WTIUSD - BearishWTI is reversing from a potential reversal zone of ABCD harmonic pattern. Place sell stop below the previous low.
XTIUSD trade ideas
USOIL, DailyUSOIL, daily
Oil prices fell as speculation about Trump relaxing energy restrains on Russia offset concerns of supply disruptions from the sanctions. The new US sanctions could impact nearly 1 million barrels per day of oil from Russia, but Trump's potential action may determine the duration of recent price gains. Also an easing of tensions in the Middle East where Hamas and Israel exchanged hostages on Sunday kept oil prices for further progressing as well as the potential impact of a cold snap of the weather in Texas and New Mexico could affect oil production which is an additional factor influencing the oil market.
On the technical side, the price had a rather aggressive bullish boost in the past couple of weeks and has recently corrected to the downside after finding sufficient resistance on the upper band of the Bollinger bands. The level of the 61.8% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement is what is supporting the price at the time of this report being written however the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 100-day possibly pointing at the retest of the the latest high around $79 or even $80. On the other hand, the Stochastic oscillator is already in extremely overbought levels hinting that the $80 mark might not be strong enough to hold the price that high and could potentially test again the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement level in the medium-term outlook.
USOIL - Fib LevelThe US oil rallied in previous week and reached its resistance level of 80$ now the price is retracing to its fib levels. A key level is its 0.5- & 0.618 level which is also supported by trendline. If these level are able to sutain then entry can be taken.
Cautious approachmust be taken as it bearish divergence is in play and drop the price more low.
Bullish momentum to extend?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 78.09
1st Support: 76.04
1st Resistance: 80.79
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USOIL POSSIBLE SELL?The market is currently testing the current Weekly area. Based on Daily TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern which could lead to a possible reversal.
We could see SELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold.
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USOIL H1 | Potential Bearish BreakoutBased on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 77.058, which is a pullback resistance. This level is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bearish setup.
Our take profit is set at 75.240, a pullback support level, marking a logical target for the trade.
The stop loss is set at 79.010, above the recent swing high, providing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bearish bias.
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Oil Heading LowerWe are in the latter stages of a running impulse move-up. However, the move has run into a corrective phase on which I do see it sliding lower to at least 77.35. At this level, I find a cluster of resistance factors that work great to set as a minimum target, which includes 100 equality in depth between waves A and C, as well as having just underneath an unfilled gap, which we might be seeing the price target to fill finally.
The most recent price action looks to be contracting in what I suspect is a triangle formation. After enough accumulation has happened I expect to see the break below occur. That is why I've set the entry price right below the second wave of the triangle. Stop is set a few points from the top of the pattern.
Thread carefully since I do expect this move to end violently and swiftly, and turn around right afterward to thrust upward once more. It might even be best for some to stay on the sidelines for this drop and wait for the entry to come on the next big move up.
Happy Trading :)
USOIL - Expect retracement !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USOIL.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a long. After price filled the imbalance we can see price to start the retracement, I expect continuation till level 74.00 where we have huge imbalance.
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JAN 19TH 2025 ANLYSIS /SENTIMENT
🔥 Futures Market Analysis: Friday Recap & Monday Domination Plan 🔥
Friday Recap (January 19, 2025): Crushing the Week 💪
Friday’s futures market wrapped up with some serious moves and setups for next week:
1. 📈 Equity Futures:
• S&P 500 E-mini climbed steadily, flirting with key resistance at 4,500. Bulls stayed in control, setting up for what could be a breakout week.
• Nasdaq Futures stole the spotlight 🚀, smashing through resistance as tech stocks carried the load. If you’re not watching this, what are you even doing?
• Dow Jones Futures cooled off as industrials and energy weighed down the index. Time to let the big dogs rest.
2. 🛢️ Commodities:
• Crude Oil Futures tapped the brakes (-1.3%) after a red-hot rally earlier in the week. The sell-off screams profit-taking, not panic. Watch for a bounce next week.
• Gold Futures hit a six-month high 💰—safe-haven buyers are loving inflation fears and global tension. It’s shiny for a reason.
3. 📉 Treasury Yields & Volatility:
• Bond futures relaxed, with yields dipping as traders priced in Fed softness.
• The VIX dropped as if it knew Monday would be quiet. But don’t let the low volatility fool you—big moves are brewing.
💥 Monday Outlook: Dominate the Holiday Gap 💥
With markets closed Monday (MLK Day), here’s how to stay ahead of the game:
1. Sunday Night Action (Overnight Session):
• Expect light trading volumes—perfect for quick volatility spikes.
• 🔑 Focus Areas:
• News from Asia & Europe could dictate overnight direction.
• Crypto futures (Bitcoin 🚀, anyone?) may provide early clues for risk appetite.
2. Tuesday Gap Risk:
• Big Gaps Ahead? With no trading Monday, markets could open Tuesday with serious energy. Gaps up or down will depend on weekend news—don’t sleep on this!
• Levels to Watch:
• S&P 500 E-mini: 🚧 Resistance at 4,500, support at 4,420.
• Nasdaq Futures: Ready to rumble between 15,800 (resistance) and 15,300 (support).
📅 What’s Coming Next Week?
💡 Tuesday: Flash PMI data could shake things up.
🔥 Thursday: Initial jobless claims—are we still #winning in the labor market?
💣 Friday: Core PCE inflation (aka: what the Fed really cares about). This will be the week’s mic drop.
Your Game Plan: From Crushing It to Kicking Ass 🔥
1. 🚨 Be Ready for Whipsaws: Low volume means traps are everywhere. Stay sharp, and don’t let the algos outsmart you.
2. 📊 Monitor Key Indicators:
• VIX: A spike = risk-off.
• Crude Oil: If it starts bouncing, it could set the tone for energy stocks.
3. 💪 Scenario Mindset for Tuesday:
• Bullish Setup: Earnings and macro optimism light the fuse.
• Bearish Setup: Bad news (or no news) throws cold water on the rally.
You’re not here to play nice. You’re here to dominate. So bring the heat Tuesday and make sure your strategy is locked and loaded. Let’s kick ass and take names this week. 💥
Let me know if you want me to tweak the energy or tone!
USOIL SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
USOIL uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 72.06 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the USOIL pair.
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WTI Crude continues with bearish tilt until Trendline is brokenBLACKBULL:WTI Crude has reached the top of the long-term triangular structure. Momentum benefits the upside but the long-term liquidity trendline is more important.
Optimism (as per Sentimentrader data) shows a potential optimism.
I will wait for the breakdown of near support to enter short
US oil selling zone Possible selling orders to be filled, sellers would want to defend their selling volumes, at 81.30 dollars per barrel and 82. 15 . This is due to selling pressure placed by bearish influence at this proce level
USOil WTI Bullish 1:2 Trade1. Market Analysis:
Asset: US Oil (WTI Crude)
Timeframes: 1-hour (1H) and 4-hour (4H)
Setup: Bullish divergence observed on both 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes
Support Level: Price is near a strong support zone, providing a solid base for a potential bounce.
2. Divergence Details:
Bullish Divergence: Both 1-hour and 4-hour charts are showing bullish divergence, indicating weakening bearish momentum as the price approaches strong support. This divergence can signal a potential reversal to the upside if confirmed by bullish price action.
3. Trade Setup:
Entry Point: Enter a long position when a bullish confirmation candle forms (such as a bullish engulfing or hammer candle) on the 1-hour chart after divergence confirmation. This candle should close above the support level for a stronger entry signal.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss just below the strong support level to protect against further downside risk. This positioning ensures risk is limited in case the support does not hold.
Take-Profit: Aim for a 1:2 or higher risk-reward ratio, targeting the next resistance levels on the chart. Consider recent highs or Fibonacci retracement levels on the 4-hour timeframe as potential take-profit areas.
4. Risk Management:
Position Size: Determine position size based on risk tolerance, ensuring only a small percentage of capital is risked on this trade (e.g., 1-2%).
Risk-Reward Ratio: Aiming for at least a 1:2 risk-reward ratio provides an advantageous setup, enhancing potential reward relative to risk.
5. Additional Confirmation:
Volume Analysis: Look for an increase in volume on the 1-hour chart as the price bounces from support to confirm strong buying interest.
Support-Resistance Alignment: Ensure the support level aligns well with recent price structure and support zones on higher timeframes to reinforce the strength of this setup.
6. Trade Execution:
Place Orders: Set buy orders, stop-loss, and take-profit levels according to the criteria above.
Monitor the Trade: Manage the trade by adjusting the stop-loss to break even or trailing it if the price moves strongly in your favor.
7. Review and Adjust:
Post-Trade Analysis: After closing the trade, review the outcome to evaluate effectiveness and learn from the trade setup.
(WTI Crude Oil) US oil Short - 1.62RR - Head And ShoulderTrade Idea: Short US Oil (WTI Crude Oil)
Analysis:
Head and Shoulders Pattern: The Head and Shoulders pattern is a classical reversal pattern that typically forms after an uptrend and indicates a potential trend reversal to the downside. In this case, the presence of a Head and Shoulders pattern on US Oil suggests a possible reversal from bullish to bearish sentiment.
Technical Indicators:
Confirmation: Look for additional technical indicators or chart patterns to confirm the potential reversal signaled by the Head and Shoulders pattern. This could include bearish divergence on oscillators like RSI or MACD, bearish candlestick patterns, or a break below key support levels.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Place a sell stop order below the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern. The neckline acts as a key support level, and a break below this level confirms the pattern's completion and the potential downtrend continuation. Ensure the entry is triggered only when the price breaches the neckline.
Stop-loss: Set the stop-loss order above the recent swing high or above the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders pattern to protect against potential losses if the price reverses unexpectedly. Place the stop-loss level outside of the pattern to avoid being stopped out by normal market fluctuations.
Take-profit: Determine the take-profit target based on key support levels, Fibonacci extensions, or a favorable risk-reward ratio. Consider scaling out of the position as the trade progresses to lock in profits.
Risk Management:
Position Size: Calculate your position size based on your risk tolerance and the distance between your entry point and stop-loss level, ensuring that you only risk a predetermined percentage of your trading capital per trade.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 or higher to ensure that potential profits outweigh potential losses.
Conclusion:
With the formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern indicating a potential reversal to the downside for US Oil, a short position presents a favorable trading opportunity. However, always conduct thorough analysis, practice proper risk management, and remain vigilant for any unexpected market developments.
WTI - Bearish 1Hour Divergence. Daily Trendline Tested. Market Analysis:
Asset: WTI (US Oil)
Timeframes:
1-Hour: Bearish divergence observed, suggesting weakening bullish momentum.
Daily: Trendline resistance tested and validated with three touchpoints, reinforcing its strength.
2. Divergence and Trendline Details:
Bearish Divergence: The price is making higher highs on the 1-hour chart, while oscillators (RSI, MACD) are making lower highs, signaling potential reversal to the downside.
Trendline Resistance: On the daily chart, the trendline has been tested three times, confirming a strong resistance area.
3. Trade Setup:
Entry Point:
Enter a short position once a bearish confirmation candle forms on the 1-hour chart (e.g., bearish engulfing or shooting star).
Alternatively, use a sell stop order just below the most recent 1-hour low to confirm the downward momentum.
Stop-Loss:
Place the stop-loss above the recent swing high on the 1-hour chart to account for potential volatility near resistance.
Take-Profit:
Aim for a 1:2 or higher risk-reward ratio.
Target key support levels or Fibonacci retracement zones on the 4-hour or daily chart.
4. Risk Management:
Position Size: Calculate based on the distance between entry and stop-loss, risking no more than 1-2% of trading capital.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Prioritize setups with at least a 1:2 risk-reward ratio to ensure favorable potential outcomes.
5. Additional Confirmation:
Volume Analysis: Look for decreasing volume as the price approaches the resistance trendline, signaling reduced bullish strength.
Support-Resistance Levels: Ensure targets align with well-defined support zones from prior price action.
6. Trade Execution:
Place Orders:
Set a sell order with predefined stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Monitor for bearish momentum indicators, such as trendline rejection or break of lower time-frame support.
Adjust Stops: If the price moves in your favor, trail the stop-loss to lock in profits as the trade develops.
