USDZAR CompletedUpdate on USDZAR
Analysis completed
Honestly it is what it is at this moment
The bears continue
Good news for the South African Rand
Not so good news for the US Dollar
ZARUSD trade ideas
USDZAR $/R17.40 ?Since the new announcement of the coalition government the market seems to be supporting the decision as this might bring stability to the county and how it is governed. the breakthrough of the price falling back to R17.95 to the dollar is very good for the country and it's currency.
USDZAR Currency Pair AnalysisHello there,
The USDZAR is ranging below the 19.26763 resistance area and seems to aim for the 17.57160 low. Only when the price makes a lower high below 17.19152 will there be a potential trend change.
The market analysis suggests a bullish trend, despite the bearish price movement, indicating that the momentum is volatile and the bearish range is neutral.
It seems that emotions are playing a significant role in this market's behaviour, making it crucial to stay cautious and closely monitor the price action.
I will call it neutral.
* Be adaptable: Keep your trading approach under review so you can react to changing market conditions.
Happy trading,
K.
USDZAR (LONG)
-Dollar Strength coming at zone
-Key Support Pivots level (monthly and Weekly)
-Supply and demand zone (price action)
USDZAR LONG TRADE PLANThe pair appears to be trading inside 2 strong resistance and support key zones. Lately it has been in a bearish trend and nicely aligned with the bottom key zone. From these areas if the price clearly gets rejected in this area, I'll be looking for long positions.
Please do your own analysis before placing any trades.
Cheers and happy trading.
USD/ZAR - JUNE 13 2024USD/ZAR remains in the 18 to 19 range with numerous re-tests of the low 18’s within the recent months from the end of 2023. Entering this end of year (2023) low will be met by similar resistance once again.
GO LONG USDZARGiven the current weakness in the South African economy coupled with the robust economic growth in America, this presents a great buying opportunity to gain in the US dollar (USD). Taking advantage of this economic disparity can yield favorable returns as the USD strengthens relative to the South African rand (ZAR).
USDZARBreak of Asian low, price reacted on 1Min OB and gave CHOCH on 1MIN. sell limit placed at 18.23465. Targeting previous IHR high which is our liquid area as well.
Remember:
-Every moment is unique
-Anything can happen
-There is a random distribution between wins and losses in an given set of variables that define an edge
-You don't need to know what's gonna happen next in the market in order to make money
-An edge is nothing but an indication of higher probability of one thing happening over the other.
USDZAR-RANGE TRADE Strategy 4-hourly chartThe pair likely will maintain a wide range between 18.1250 - 18.4850 area for coming week, I feel. the stochastic is low and looks like we may turn a bit, which means short-term we may see a move back towards 18.3950. the over all picture is we may see move lower as long we remain below 18.4950 area.
1. Strategy BUY @ 18.2150-18.2500 and take profit @ 18.3875
2. Strategy SELL @ 18.3750-18.3950 and take profit @ 18.1950.
SL make it 1%-1.25% of your capital employed.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourly chartThe previous day worked out well, and was close to profit objective. Now we have declined sharply from those highs, and we are now nearing support 18.2950. the stochastic is negative, and the chances of breakdown are great, supported by the indicators and the news of a coalition that is supportive for ZAR.
Strategy SELL @ 18.3150-18.3500 and place SL above 18.4750 and take profit @ 18.0750 for now.
USDZAR BUY ( SA GOV UNITY EFFECT )Stability vs. Uncertainty: A unity government formed by multiple parties may initially be perceived positively by investors if it is seen as a move towards political stability and consensus-building. This could lead to increased confidence in the country's economic prospects, potentially supporting the currency.
Policy Clarity: A coalition government might face challenges in implementing policies due to divergent interests among the participating parties. However, if the coalition can provide clarity on economic policies and reforms, it could bolster investor confidence and have a positive impact on the currency.
When in doubt zoom outThe volatility of the rand is forcing us to “when in doubt zoom out.” Last week the rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 18.47 but the blue support range held its ground. The two critical rates to watch now is the 200-day MA support at 18.78 and the 61.8% Fibo resistance rate of 18.87. A break above 18.87 will allow the pair to test levels above the blue downward trend line and move into the red resistance range between 19.16 and 19.28. A break below 18.78 will however allow the rand to re-test the support range around the 18.50 mark. The rand is currently at the whims of global investor sentiment around SA’s new government of national unity but as the dust settles SA will be able to attract investors back into the SA bond market which is rand positive. The recent performance of the SA economy and the cooling of global commodity prices are however rand negative. Range bound movement between 19.00 and 18.70 can be expected as the pair looks likely to fall into a corrective pattern. A break below 18.50 will however invalidate the expected 5-wave impulse in the chart.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly chartI have under estimated the move down to be much further, but it does not change my overall strategic view of the pair. the stochastic remains low, and we have executed our SL in the 18.4350 area, and now we aim to buy lower down again. We will see recovery for the coming sessions is my personal view. the daily chart worked well, but got out to early.
Strategy BUY @ 18.3650-18.4000 and place SL below 18.2950 for now and profit order @ 18.5850.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly chartTe daily chart did well, and profit taken. The 4-hourly suggestion went beyond the 18.6150 and we have broken below GANN levels as well. Under normal circumstances, I would suggest selling now, but since stochastic LOW and also being below regression channel, a pullback usually takes place. GOLD seems to recover higher is my view, but since the pair already declined, we may see recovery first before down.
Strategy BUY @ 18.5350-18.5650 and place SL below 18.4350 and take profit @ 18.8150 for now.
USDZAR So far so good…
USDZAR moving in the right direction.
So far we deep in the right place.
Now we just have to be patient.
Usually I will take 70% of profits off the table and leave 30% to role over into my take profit zones.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly chartOf course, each time frame has its own analysis, and farther away objectives. the daily chart is SELL strategy, but the 4-hourly has BUY potential.
Strategy BUY @ 18.7150-18.7500 for a profit objective to 18.9150 again. SL below 18.6150 for now.
USDZAR 10/06/2024Weekly:
-Sellside liquidity taken.
-OB.
-FVG is acting as support.
Daily:
-Bullish M pattern.
4H:
-Bullish M pattern.
-Inverse H&S pattern.
-IC.
USDZAR-SELL strategy Daily ChartThe pair has reached close enough the 2-hourly chart objective, and after reaching 18.9200 area, we move lower sharply to low 18.70s. This price action is likely the forming of a larger move lower. The stochastic is near negative, and GANN-wise, we have potential to reach 18.60s in the week to come or sooner, is my personal opinion.
Strategy SELL 18.7800-18.8300 and place SL above 18.9650 and take profit @ 18.6250.
USDZAR Short positions triggered My short position has been triggered.
Firstly my confluence is a lower high on the 4H timeframe.
Price failed to created a new high.
Secondly price action has broken my box zone.
Which indicates we are receiving a strong push to the downside because of the bears.
Thirdly we have seen a break of the major bullish trend.
Let’s see how this plays out…
USDZAR-BUY strategy 2-Hourly chartLooking at the short-term time frames, it appears we may see a move back to test 18.9500-19.0000 again. Stochastic is positive, and GOLD lower, therefore a higher probability for moving back up again.
Strategy BUY @ 18.8000-18.8350 and place SL below 18.6850 and take profit @ 18.9475.
USDZAR rise to 2020 highThe rand has lost ground to the dollar, rising above moving averages. Weaker US data and lower inflation affect the situation. Both South African and US GDP missed estimates. The 19.35 marker is resistance, while the 200 SMA and swing low of 18.044 are support levels.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourly chartIt feels more confirmed for a down move from here. We attempted higher, and also the increase of precious metal prices, should support this view for the coming sessions.
Strategy SELL @ 18.9150-18.9850 and SL around 19.0750. Profit order @ 18.6350 for now.
unclearsince SA doesn't have a goverment the investors are panicing therefore the zar will lose some weight. let's continue to monitor it for the next 10days
