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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

Final stretch for 2024The rand rode a wave of both local and international positive factors through the year. The local election results along with the new GNU attracted buyers back to the SA bond market in the first half of the year while internationally, sustained risk-on sentiment from the Fed’s aggressive 50bps rate cut in September and a 30% Bull Run in gold prices allowed the rand to pull the pair from a high of 19.35 in February down roughly 12%, to a 20-month low, of 17.02. Gold prices are however coming off their highs of $2,780 per ounce while the DXY has surged roughly 6.5% since the end of September which is bucking the downward trend for the USD/ZAR trend. This has seen the rand become worst performing currency against the dollar post the US election results after the volatile ZAR slipped almost 6%. The pair now seems to be in a 5-wave impulse that was initiated at the end of September which coincides almost perfectly with the DXY bottoming out around 100.2. The positive correlation between the DXY and USDZAR has strengthened post the US election which will keep the rand on the ropes as we enter the last stretch of 2024. The pair is however facing strong resistance on the 200-day MA level of 18.27 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement of 18.43 which will allow the rand to pull the pair back towards the support between 17.88 and 18.00. A failed break below this blue support range will confirm the 5-wave impulse which could see the rand buckle to north of 18.50 as we head into 2025. Fundamentals: The declining gold price is rand negative however the risk-on sentiment in the market remains prevalent given the price action in risk assets such as equities (specifically tech stocks) and bitcoin. The rand has not been able to benefit from this risk-on sentiment which is not a positive sign. The Federal Reserve is expected to through another rate cut into the mix before year-end as well as the SARB and in terms of monetary policy, I expect the SARB’s hawkish stance to limit the rand’s losses for now. Zooming out, the pair remains in a downward trend shown by the black channel.
Long
by Goose96
USDZAR The USDZAR pair is currently trading in a tight range between 18.22, the 200-day MA resistance rate, and 17.90, the 38.2% Fibo retracement level. These are the critical rates I’m watching in the lead up to the last non-farm payrolls print for the year this Friday. Additionally Fed chair Powell will also speak later this week. My original idea for a 5-wave impulse higher towards 18.50 is still on the cards in my opinion and a break above 18.20 will confirm this move. A break below the blue support range between 17.85 and 17.90 will however invalidate my original idea. The DXY and US10 year yields have turned around last week however I believe the DXY still has room to make another leg higher before the end of the year which is rand negative. Please also see the DXY chart attached. DXY:
Long
by Goose96
1
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Education
by TLTurnerTV
USD/ZAR's Explosive Journey Will You Miss the Next Big Move?Narrative Overview USD/ZAR is pushing higher into a critical Wave 5 expansion. The pair is now heading toward significant Fibonacci resistance levels with momentum on its side. Traders should focus on opportunities to position for Wave 5 completion, while watching key invalidation points to manage risk. Key Levels to Trade the Wave 5 Upside Immediate Targets for Wave 5: 22.25 (1.618 Fibonacci – Diagonal Wave 5): This is the primary target for Wave 5 completion. Price is expected to approach this level with strong momentum, providing a key area to secure profits or tighten stops. 24.35 (2.0 Fibonacci – Extended Wave 5): If bullish momentum is sustained, this is the next high-probability target. However, the likelihood of a deeper correction increases beyond this level. Support Zones for Continuation: 19.34 (Inducement Wave 3 Resistance): Price may retest this zone as support if there’s a pullback before the final push into Wave 5. Holding above here confirms strength. 14.40 (Wave 4 Support – 0.382 Fibonacci): This is a major structural support that must not be broken. As long as price stays above this zone, the bullish structure remains valid. Bullish Invalidation Levels: 11.35 (0.618 Fibonacci): If price falls below this level, the Wave 5 structure is invalidated, signaling a potential long-term bearish reversal. Core Outlook: Trading Wave 5 Upside Primary Scenario – Bullish Expansion: Price is expected to continue its advance toward 22.25 and potentially extend to 24.35. Momentum will likely remain strong unless a significant correction breaks key support zones. Pullback Opportunity: Any retracement to 19.34 or 14.40 could offer an opportunity to enter long positions for the final Wave 5 push. Action Plan for Traders Enter Long Positions: Look for pullbacks into support levels (19.34 or as deep as 14.40) to build positions for the Wave 5 push. Target 22.25, with an extended target at 24.35 for an overextension scenario. Manage Risk: Place stop losses below 14.40, as a break below this level could invalidate the bullish Wave 5 outlook. Monitor price action closely near 22.25 for signs of exhaustion or reversal. Key Themes to Highlight Wave 5 in Play: USD/ZAR is completing its final bullish impulse, targeting 22.25–24.35 as a significant area of resistance. Pullback = Opportunity: Any corrections to support levels are potential buy zones to ride the final leg of this bullish move. Risk Management: Protect positions below 14.40, as this marks the structural foundation for the current bullish trend.
Long
by spaceangel
USDZAR Neutral at 18.4Hi there, This is how the USD/ZAR looks like on the 1-hour chart, having encountered a resistance area at 18.4. It’s possible that it could push higher, but there are interesting levels that might pull the price lower. The levels of 18.1 and 17.7 are such areas to watch, and there is a possibility that the price may plummet down to 17.3. Overall, the trend is neutral at the current price, which is near a resistance area. Happy Trading, K. Not trading advice
Short
by Khiwe
USDZAR-NEUTRAL BUY 3 hourly chart GANN SQRThe GANN suqare is useful to identify potential movements, and the pair seems established inside a wider range. We have to be careful, as upside potential is there and we already have seen the movements yesterday from highs 18.1800 and low 17.9750 area. I feel GOLD is heavily overbought short-term, and yes, we are aware of the potential Ukrain escalations, but then again, GOLD buyers are accessing it only and its clear market is LONG GOLD and prone to sharp decline. Strategy BUY @ 18.0350-18.0700 and take profit near 18.3750 for now.
Long
by peterbokma
6
Potential bullish rise?USD/ZAR has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance level which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 17.9840 1st Support: 17.8118 1st Resistance: 18.3280 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USDZAR-SELL strategy 12 hourly The pair has been moving between 18.1400 - 18.3990 and the battle is ongoing. The key GOLD movement, and with the belief that GOLD will correct, the same applies for this pair. technically we should see recovery lower and test 18.0300 GANN support. I feel that we may see touching 17.9350 at some point in time. Strategy SELL @ 18.2350-18.2750 when seen, or adjust to your view point. Profit order place at 18.0350 or wait for 17.9150 - 17.9350 area. The 18.0300 touching will attrack a bounce first before breaking down I feel.
Short
by peterbokma
4