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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

Blue wedge, topside or downside break? Our beloved rand seems to be on the ropes again after a stronger than expected US CPI print. The stronger than expected US CPI is cooling last year’s aggressive rate cut expectations which is dollar positive and drives risk-off sentiment, which is rand negative. Zooming out, the USD/ZAR pair has been in a wedge pattern since the rand made its 2Q2023 recovery which saw the rand pull the pair to a low of 17.41 before the rand folded back to 19.64 in 4Q2023. The blue support range between 18.31 and 18.40 has capped the rand’s gains since the backend of 2023 and the pair failed to break below the 50-day and 200-day MAs to re-test this support range in January 2024. To the topside we have the red resistance range of 19.15 and 19.30. The pair is expected to re-test this range following this afternoon’s price action, if it breaks above the black downward trendline. The critical rates to watch is the January 2024 high at 19.22 and the 61.8% Fibo rate of 18.97. A break above 19.22 will be an early signal for a possible topside break out of the blue wedge which will see the rand slide back above 19.65. Conversely, a move below 18.97 will allow the rand to re-test the 50-day and 200-day MAs which coincides with the bottom of the blue range. A downside break will allow the rand to recover to a best-case scenario of 18.00. Factors motivating a topside break: Expected rate cuts from the Fed in March don’t materialize and commodity prices, particularly platinum, remain subdued. For now, I’m on the fence since these macro-economic factors can flip in an instant. Technically, not much can be made of from the RSI which still has room to move higher while the failed break below the 50-day and 200-day MAs is rand negative. Topside or downside break out of the blue wedge, please leave your comment below!
by Goose96
USD/ZAR Look for a series of higher highs and higher lows on the price chart. Enter a long (buy) trade when the price makes a pullback to a higher low, anticipating that the uptrend will continue. Place a stop-loss order below the most recent higher low to manage risk. Take profit when the price makes a new higher high. Downtrend Trading: Look for a series of lower highs and lower lows on the price chart. Enter a short (sell) trade when the price makes a retracement to a lower high, anticipating that the downtrend will continue. Place a stop-loss order above the most recent lower high to manage risk. Take profit when the price makes a new lower low.
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by dominicdrock
USDZAR Double confirmation sell signalThe USDZAR pair is trading above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), on a strong consolidation phase as it approaches the end of an 8-month Triangle. Having been rejected last week very close to not only the Triangle's top but also the (dotted) Channel Up top (Lower Highs trend-line), we have a strong short-term sell signal in our hands. Our Target is Support 1 at 18.555. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
USDZAR BULLISH TREND WILL CONTINUOUS TO 20.00 HI FRIENDS!! As we can see this USDZAR again near at support zone we have good chance to join the rally as we can see US $ is holding support and all major pairs. this pair is also holding a strong support and trading above a uptrend line zone, so our risk and reward ratio is fantastic on this pair let's see what markets brings its just a trade idea share Ur thoughts with us it helps many other Traders. STAYTUNED! for more updates
Long
by APEX_TRADING_ACADMEY
Testing critical levelThe pair is currently testing the 61.8% Fibo level at 18.97 and we have the psychological resistance rate sitting at 19.00. A break above this resistance range will see the rand slide to the top end of the current blue downward trend line which coincides with the red resistance range between 19.15 and 19.30. A failed break above 19.00 will allow the rand to pull the pair back onto the 50-day and 200-day MA rates at 18.73 and 18.75, respectively. Fundamentally, commodity prices, particularly platinum have had a sluggish start to the year which is rand negative. Additionally the dollar has remained solid this week while markets digested last weeks FOMC and strong non-farm payroll prints which also does not bode well for the vulnerable rand. For now, I remain on the fence as long as the pair sits in this big wedge illustrated by the blue trend lines. Technically the RSI still has room to move higher before entering the overbought zone which is not rand supportive. A cross of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA is also on the cards which is technically a 'golden cross' and rand negative.
by Goose96