Rand to 13 a dollarWe might see R20 a dollar before continuation down to 13 etc, but if not the case then from where the price currently is then we might continue dropping. Shared an Idea on Monthly, and this is how Weekly looks.
ZARUSD trade ideas
A possible reversal before taking of to 19.10 againOn the H4 chart the price movement confirms that there will be a pullback on rand against yhe dollar to 18.717... yhen the price will look up on 19.10.... for a retest to give the market a sideways movement for the next 5 months...
On the other side the H1 is showing a break for the bulls on the moving avarage and giving the price strength to push up with the dollar and against the rand...so the next high price on yhe rand against thedollar will be 19.10... for the coming week then anything can happen from there.... "Sideways or Drop with rand on dollar moving to 18.10...
Keep your eye on this one for your profits in greens
USD/ZAR sellThe WXY correction is left with the y leg. the USD is bearish both fundamentally and technically. there is a short significant ZAR upside to make the sell a very attractive opportunity.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourlyWe abort the BUY for now without cost. The pair is dancing on the GANN support 18.8500 area, and a break means much lower levels to be seen. The pattern is also showing a kind of continuation pattern downwards.
Strategy SELL curerent 18.8500-18.9000 area and place SL above 19.0550 for. Now based on expectation, sharp move lower is possible so profit order maybe around 18.6550.
Sell OppertunityZar seems to be overbought and forming a DT. Price is currently at a supply zone. Last week we saw heavy demand and a break upwards after distribution.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourlyThe pair broker 18.9750 which was my cut out point, when long, and as updated it would test 18.8700, which it did. Now we have bounced of GANN support 18.8100 estimated area (it shifts over time upwards). Stochastic is low, but not positive as yet, but I feel we will see higher levels again in coming sessions.
Strategy BUY 18.8500-18.8750 area (suggested), and place SL below 18.7900 for now. Profit order I feel somewhere @ 19.0250.
25-01-2024 _ Short Term Bearish Idea _ USDZAR H4
1- Bearish Divergence on RSI Indicator
Bearish Divergence on MACD MAs and Histogram
2- Followed by Convergence on MACD Histogram ( formation of New Low )
The price action suggests a typical Scenario of Divergence followed by Convergence.
Therefore, we can expect;
1- Pullback ( ~ 50% Fibo Retracement )
2- Followed by further continuation to the downside
USDZAR BUYThis pair is trading in a bullish trend. Continuation from 18.8 all the way to 19.5 and possibly beyond.
USDZAR-NEUTRAL BUY strategy 3-hourlyThe pattern looks indecisive and this means we may move back up again. I feel that is in a neutral range state before we move lower.
Strategy BUY @ 19.0150-19.0450 and take profit @ 19.1150 area. SL I feel to keep it tight below 18.9750 for now.
USDZAR-SELL strategy update 4-hourly chartThe pair has indeed respected above 19.2000 area, and thereafter it went south. The strange looking s/h/s pattern is forming, and I feel we have a chance to see 18.8000 again.
Strategy SELL @ 19.12-19.18 and place SL above 19.2800 now. Profit order let's say @ 18.8150 now.
See You At The TopAll analysis are trickly based on price action movement from the DAILY and 4HR TF.
Detailed description of analysis can be found on the chart.
All input is greatly appreciated !
This is not professional advice
USDZAR-SELL Strategy 4-hourly chartThe previous update viewpoint provided the right feeling of upside potential, and depending to one's action, one may have sold within this 19.12-19.1500 area. SL are always in the hands of the one trading, and in this case we did have a high of 19.2075 area before retreat. My idea was stop above the previous high, and this translated around 19.1950 area (100 pips above the high before). This of course, based on the driver of the seller.
Strategy for now, is unchanged, and we SELL into strength, and since we ran upwards, I feel our SELL or additional SELL should be near 19.1750 or higher. the GANN resistance is 19.2350 area (and shifting upwards each new candle stick of 4-hourly. so SL above 19.2500 for now. Profit order unchanged @ 18.7350.
USDZAR: ABC Pattern Indicates Bullish Setup
Hi there,
There's an ABC pattern forming in the USDZAR H1 time frame. AB appears to be a correction in a bullish trend that continues in higher time frames when viewed over a stochastic indicator.
Therefore, BC is expected to continue the bullish XA wave, reaching an approximate price area of 19.31196, with 19.08984 as the first price target when applying a Fibonacci retracement tool.
If the price falls below the recent low of 18.46243, then this setup will be invalid.
Happy Trading
K.
Pre-SARB rate decisionThe pair broke above the 200-day MA last week which saw it briefly touch levels above 19.00. A failed break above the red resistance range between 19.15 and 19.30 will be rand positive which could allow the rand to pull the pair back below 18.50. Zooming out you will notice that the pair is working into a wedge, illustrated by the blue trend lines and in which direction the wedge breaks remains to be seen.
USDZARPossible upside continuation of USDZAR in the first quarter of 2024. The pair has performed badly in recent times and with the Dollar looking to build up bullish momentum, this could mean more weakness of the South African Rand.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 3-hourlyThe pair has move a little higher, and beyond the SL 18.9950, and then retraced back. Overall am a preferred SELLER of the pair, observing a possible S/H/S pattern, that may not be completed as yet. the stochastic suggest positive movement upwards, and I feel in this context, we either BUY carefully with stop below 18.9100, or await the SELL that should be near 19.10-19.15 area with SL above the previous high. I prefer SELL into rally and not the BUY version mentioned.
Strategy SELL @ 19.1200-19.1550 and place SL above 19.19765 for now. The profit order is @ 18.7350 for now.
USDZAR-NEUTRAL SELL strategy 4-hourly chartThe pair has made its movement south, and we are stalling around mid range regression channel. We also are moving within a small downward channel, and resistance is around 18.9650 (est.) For now, take back shorts, or lower SL to 18.9950. The chances are still we see lower 18.8000 is my view.
Strategy SELL @ 18.9350 and place SL above 18.9950 and profit level @ 18.8150.
USDZAR - BEARISH TRENDUSDZAR is in Bearsih Trend. Printing LH and LL. Stop Loss, Entry price and TP's have been marked.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourly chartThe SL @ 19.1125 was executed, but luckily I also had a SELL order placed switching of screens @ 19.1675, and I just took back around 19.0100. Stop-loss is always for protection, and RSI was quite high above 80.0 also made me decide to leave sell order higher than the SL.
The stochastic has turned negative and we are in a corrective mode now. Lower GANN is onloy 18.6700 area, and upper one is 19.1000 area. we spiked above the Keltner band, and could not sustain this with a high RSI.
Strategy SELL @ 19.0575-19.0950 and place SL above the last high. Profit order @ 18.7350.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4 hourly chart updateThe pair has moved towards the expected level, and now some caution and a SELL strategy may be the next on the cards.
Stochastic is becoming high, but positive still.
Strategy SELL @ 18.9650 - 19.0100 and place SL @ 19.0575 and take profit @ 18.7450.
USDZAR - A look at the bigger pictureThe ZAR has been trading in a fairly large and choppy range. There has been strong support at the 18.13 level and this morning we saw it breach 19 again. Should this weak trend continue, the levels to look out for are 19.20, 19.30, 19.63 and 19.92.
USDZAR LongFundamentals:
Deteriorating economic-fundamentals for the South African Rand:
"It's a futile exercise trying to defend the exchange rate," says the South African Central Bank governor. He won't defend the depreciating rand. According to Reuters, Kganyago says that the "bank's main concern remained fighting inflation, reiterating that risks to the inflation outlook included food prices, oil prices and exchange-rate moves."
South Africa's consumer inflation "remains comfortably within the central bank's target range of between 3%-6%." The Rand's central bankers meet in November to discuss interest rates.
Technicals:
Weekly and daily lining up....
Stage 3 Chikou set-up
Breakout of triable pattern
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourlyMy first thoughts few days ago with negative stochastic, that we may see lower levels, and that is why SL was placed near 18.7100. we are now moving higher, and am a careful buyer, but will await right levels. If one likes to stay out, is perhaps the best advise right now, but never the less I state my preferred view.
Strategy BUY @ 18.6500 area and place SL below 18.5800 and take profit @ 18.9150.
