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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

USDZAR-RANGE strategy 2-HourlyThe pair had moved up, but speed was unexpected. It stalled @ 17.9800 area, and if one would have used the 2-hourly, one would have been short after stochastic breakage. The range we trade within is very wide, and makes it difficult for trend trading, but noting daily chart still sees potential 18.4500 and higher. The 2-hourly chart suggest we see little lower again, back towards 17.4700 area and strong support 17.4000 now. Gold is steady, and this should assist in being LONG the pair, if one chooses to be. Cloud resistance @ 17.7800 for now. Strategy based on 2-hourly chart is RANGE trade within the space of 18.00 and 17.40. I would prefer to BUY at lower levels @ 17.50-17.55 area and take profit @ 17.9800. Daily chart should BUY between 17.50-17.75 and take profit @ 18.3700.
by peterbokma
USDZAR-BUY strategy daily chartThe pair is building up for a long awaited move towards 18.2800 test. The stochastic is positive, but we require to close above 17.8650 confidently to make this happen. GOLD is softer and provide a basis for weaker ZAR. Strategy is BUY between 17.70-17.80 of on solid break 17.8650. Overall we will move north, but of course we prefer some confirmation. Stop-loss below 17.4500, and that is why we need a little deep pockets for this str5ategy due to the wide range is has traded within. Profit near 18.2800.
Long
by peterbokma
2
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-HourlyWe ran up sharply yesterday based on the channel support and supportive stochastic and RSI, and the AO. Now we have come down sharply, which shows we are under pressure, and again 17.6500 area proves to be important resistance now. The stochastic is NEG and RSI as well, but not convincing. However, I feel we are in SELL mode now and we will likely test 17.4500 channel support is my view. Strategy SELL @ 17.5500-17.6000 and place stop-loss @ 17.6700. Profit order @ 17.4600.
Short
by peterbokma
6
USDZAR Short trading opportunity(swing-trading) 4I expect a swing of about 100cents-150cents all the way down to R16.00+- per dollar, expecting the ZAR to weaken in the short term within a month to a few month to 16.00+-. If the USA Federal Reserve stops hiking rates, and starts to slowly apply rate cuts then it could signal that the dollar might weaken a bit for the ZAR to strengthen against it, even considering domestic issues. I am risking money on this with a 1:1 leverage, but its more like I am moving money back to my local bank account (paying for studies/courses) than me using it in a short position. There is also a nice double top forming.
Short
by ricomister
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4 HourlyWe broke 17.6500 which would mean abort the LONG previously. We are within a wide channel, and leaves room for a lot of lows and highs. We have reached a low of near 17.5000 and currently little higher. The stochastic is positive and the AO is showing buyers on the coast. the RSI is oversold, but not extreme. Strategy is BUY within 17.4700 - 17.55 and place stop-loss below the channel support. The profit order first @ 17.6475, but if broken above 17.6500 we will see further upmove, and my initial thoughts on daily chart, 18.35-18.45 possible.
Long
by peterbokma
USDZAR TRADE IDEA: Long (24/07/2023)USDZAR is looking to reverse. It has clearly slowed its downwards movement and is looking to reverse up top to potentially continue its down movement. This was signified through its break of structure on the 4H chart. As shown on the 15 minute chart it has broken structure. The only worrying part is that it is returning back to break even. However this has the potential of a 7RR trade. NOTE: This is not financial advice, please do your own research and be aware that any risks are being taken solely by you, the individual.
Long
by saintprincevvs
1
USD/ZAR weekly timeframe updateI had to invalid my previous long-term USDZAR idea for the 3Q2023 after the rand’s strong rally within the current A-B-C corrective pattern in June and July. The pair is now testing a critical support range between 17.92, the 61.8% Fibo retracement level which coincides satisfyingly with the 50-week MA rate, and 18.03, the pair’s 200-day MA. (17.92 – 18.03) A break below this support range will allow the rand to pull the pair into the major blue support range between 16.70, 2023 low, and the green 61.8% Fibo rate of 17.05. The long-term 200-week MA support at 16.12, which is lining up with the long-term black trendline currently seems a bit far but if the winds blow into the rand’s sails, we may very well see the rand test this support later this year. Now the question is what factors could create a favourable climate for those rand breezes. Well for starters, the rand’s carry trade advantage. The difference between long-term SA bonds and US securities is currently very favourable for the rand with SA 10-year bonds yielding north of 11%. Another positive factor is the SA trade balance which is currently sitting at a surplus of R10 billion. Additionally, the interest rate hiking cycle seems to be taking a breather as well as global CPI and PPI figures which is adding fuel to risk-n investor sentiment which is rand positive. There are however some tides which could limit the rand’s recovery. The main one is the expected “mild recession.” A mild recession, the Federal reserve's words not mine, would put commodity prices under pressure as well as dampen investor sentiment (the rand behaves like a commodity currency). Additionally, the most recent GDP figures from China also does not bode well for commodity prices and SA exports. China 2Q2023 GDP figures came in lower than expected at 6.3%, yoy, up from 4.5% in 1Q2023. Bear in mind this is the year-on-year growth following the reopening of the Chinese economy after the lockdowns in 2022… So, on the flip side, dampened investor sentiment and weak commodity price growth will strengthen our support range between 17.92 and 18.03. A failed break below this range will see the pair inch back higher towards the blue 50% - and 38.2% Fibo retracement rates at 18.31 and 18.69 respectively. I’m relatively neutral at the current price range but if I had to stick my neck out, I’m leaning towards a break below my critical support rate (17.92 – 18.03) over a push higher back above 18.50. The weekly technical indicators are also rand positive with the MACD holding a strong sell signal while the RSI has plenty of room to move lower before hitting the oversold range. On the daily indicators, the pair is oversold, rand overbought, which could allow the pair to test the top end of the current downward channel.
Short
by Goose96
1