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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

Volatile FOMC and Non-Farm payrolls week aheadIt looks like the pair will complete an A-B-C corrective pattern which could allow the rand to pull the pair onto the blue 50% Fibo rate of 18.22. The navy-blue channel has been broken and the bottom end of the channel now serves as a neckline resistance. This neckline also coincides satisfyingly with the 50-day MA. The failed break above the 50-day MA as well as the resistance rate at 18.97 (the bottom of the previous 4th wave impulse) is rand positive. The pair is now working into a wedge between the 50-day MA and the bottom of the current smaller upward channel. A break below the blue 38.2% Fibo rate at 18.611 will confirm a channel break which will allow the rand to make some gains. The support range to watch is between 18.44 and 18.54 as the rand attempts the move towards 18.22. Technically the daily MACD buy signal is rolling over and it looks set to cross to a sell signal and the RSI also has room to move lower before hitting oversold zones which are both rand positive. Lots of volatility is expected for this week however, Thursday we have the latest FOMC minuets and on Friday it’s non-farm payrolls so keep stop tight for in case the small upward channel holds its ground. Strategy: Place sell limits anywhere above 18.75; take profits zones at 18.45 and 18.25. Longer-term support at 200-day MA (18.00) still looks strong for now.
Short
by Goose96
1
USDZAR | Weekly | UpdateUSDZAR | Weekly Looking to the left on USDZAR based on my initial analysis, we notice that we he had a target for USDZAR at 21.2xxxx - 21.5xxxx after which we saw USDZAR rally all the way up to 19.93xxx creating a new high for the USDZAR we saw it fail to break above our 20.xxxxx psychological level. After failing to break above the 20.xxxxx level we noticed the ZAR “try” to recover it’s losses against the USD creating or current base as after falling from around 19.93xxx we can see the USDZAR finding support at 18.08xxx and bouncing up from there and currently trading above our 18.5xxxx Psychological level at 18.7xxxx. Looking to the right, if USDZAR fails to push down and break our support at 18.08xxx - 17.74xxx we can consider that area as our new base and we can expect the USDZAR to push further up and may potentially break our 20.xxxxx psychological level while still expecting it to head up to 21.2xxxx - 21.5xxxx.
Long
by mosa_moshka
Neutral view atm... The rand closed the week roughly 7 cents weaker against the dollar after sliding to a high of 19.04 against the dollar on Friday. The rand was boosted by the risk-on investor sentiment at the back end of the week which allowed the rand to keep the pair below the imperative 50-day MA rate of 18.82. The pair is however forming an upward channel which could allow the pair to break above the 50-day MA resistance rate. The rand’s moves will be dictated by how market participants digest the data from the US. Technically the MACD indicator is holding a buy signal while the RSI still has room to move before entering overbought zones and a break above the 50-day MA will allow the pair to test the blue 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 19.10. On the flip side, a failed break above the 50-day MA will allow the rand to pull the pair on to the support rate of 18.61 and possibly lower towards 18.45. The rand also managed to keep the pair below the black 50% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day MA resistance which is rand positive.
by Goose96
USDZARI expect a Strong ZAR against Dollar in the next few months. Reason: - The USDZAR has given us WXYXZ correction from the past 12 months (June 2022 - June 2023), we can conclude on a complete cycle. (elliot waves) - We can therefore project for an impulse 5 waves down. - We have completed W1 and W2 ( at 50% Fib level), aiming for W3 at 261.8% of W2 Entry: - Apply SMC strategies at lower time frame (Preferably 15 minutesTF) - The South African Governor Mr Kganyago has indicated an undervalued ZAR and a projection of a stronger ZAR in the following months. (Fundamental news)
Short
by MelusiR702
1
#USDZAR - Update The USDZAR failed to reach the R18 level and instead reversed breaking through R18.28 and rallying all the way to the R18.72 level. It has since strengthened today and is now testing the 20 day moving average. It will be key to see how it reacts here as it could signal further weakness this week if it can't get back under it. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is a popular technical analysis tool used by traders to identify trends in the stock market. It is calculated by taking the average price of a security over the past 20 days, with more weight given to the most recent prices. The 20-day EMA is considered an important indicator because it can help traders identify potential buy and sell signals. In summary, the 20-day EMA is an important technical analysis tool that can help traders identify trends and potential buy and sell signals in the stock market.
by Trader-Dan
USDZARUSDZAR refers to the currency pair composed of the United States dollar (USD) and the South African rand (ZAR). The exchange rate between these two currencies represents the value of one currency in terms of the other. Traders, investors, and individuals interested in foreign exchange markets often pay attention to the USDZAR exchange rate due to its economic significance. The USDZAR exchange rate is influenced by various factors, including economic indicators, interest rates, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Here are some key points to consider: Economic Factors: The economic performance of both the United States and South Africa can impact the USDZAR exchange rate. Factors such as GDP growth, inflation, employment data, and trade balances play a role. For example, if the U.S. economy is strong compared to South Africa's, it may lead to a stronger U.S. dollar relative to the rand. Interest Rates: Central bank policies and interest rate differentials between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the South African Reserve Bank can affect the USDZAR exchange rate. Higher interest rates in the United States may attract foreign investors, leading to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar and a depreciation of the rand. Commodity Prices: South Africa is a major exporter of commodities like gold, platinum, and diamonds. Changes in commodity prices can influence the value of the rand, which, in turn, affects the USDZAR exchange rate. For instance, a rise in gold prices may boost the rand, while a decline could weaken it. Political and Geopolitical Factors: Political stability, government policies, and geopolitical events can impact the exchange rate. Any political uncertainty or economic instability in either country can lead to currency volatility and affect the USDZAR exchange rate. It is important to note that exchange rates are subject to market fluctuations and can change rapidly. Traders and investors who are involved in the foreign exchange market closely monitor exchange rates, employing various strategies to take advantage of potential opportunities. As with any investment or financial decision, it's recommended to conduct thorough research, seek expert advice, and consider multiple factors when dealing with exchange rates or trading currency pairs like USDZAR.
Long
by V_dev
#USDZAR eyeing 17.90-18.00 and 200dma once again?Some phenomenal strength against the USD after almost touching the 20.00 mark. Particularly interesting is how the pair barely managed to put up a fight at the important 18.50-18.60 level which was very strong resistance before the breakthrough. This bodes well for the zar but next up we have the 200day ma at around 17.90-18.00 which has been rather sticky in the past and zar bears will likely fancy their chances to sell zar at this level.
by MarcoOlevano
5
USD/ZAR (The overdue pullback is here) View On USDZAR (6 June 2023) USDZAR is in * Down in short term (Intraweek) * UPtrend in Mid term (Intramonth) * UPtrend in Long term (Last 3 months) USDZAR is in the strong up trend in recent months/year and it shall be about to change for now. I am expecting some pull back in USDZAR and it might be better to stay in the Short side for a while. 18.2~18.5 will be a nice support region. DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Thank You! Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading crypto, foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
Short
by SonicDeejay
3Q2023 USDZAR weekly timeframeBack in January I predicted that the USDZAR pair will climb to the 2020 high of 19.35 if the rand fails to hold the pair below the critical support rate of 16.80. We’ve seen this move play out, and then some, which saw the rand slide to an all-time low of 19.90 this week as the pair completed its 5th major impulse wave. Now it’s time to look at what lies ahead for 2H2023. The critical rate to watch is at 18.66, the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement rate… Based purely off the Elliot wave theory I predict that the pair will fall into an ABC corrective pattern in 3Q2023, similar to the corrective pattern we saw in the 4Q2022. The first support range (S1) for the pair sits between 19.15 and 19.35 (the blue 23.6% Fibo retracement rate and the 2020 high). A break below this range will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 18.66. A move into support range 2 (S2) will complete wave A of the ABC corrective pattern. Support range 2 coincides with the bottom of the blue upward channel that the pair is currently trading in as well as the top of the previous third impulse wave. I don’t see the rand gaining enough momentum to pull the pair below support range 2 at this stage. Thereafter, the pair will retest S1 as it flips from a support to a resistance and the ABC corrective pattern will be complete after the pair falls back onto the critical support rate of 18.66. A break below 18.66 in the 4Q2023 will allow the rand to pull the pair out of the current upward black parallel channel and into support range 3 (the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate at 17.92 and the bottom of the ABC corrective wave at 17.67) which coincides with the 50-week MA currently at 17.64. This scenario is the best-case scenario for the rand in my opinion. For the rand to pull the pair below S3 we would need to see another strong bull market in the commodity cycle. Conversely, if the critical support at 18.66 holds its ground the pair will remain in the upward black channel which will send the pair higher in the 20.00’s. Weekly technical indicators: The weekly RSI suggests that the rand is heavily oversold at the moment which will allow the rand some breathing room, on paper. The weekly MACD is still holding a strong buy signal, but it is showing signs of fizzling out and rolling over. Overall, the technical indicators are supportive of a rand pullback into S1 and possibly deeper into S2. We have to wait to see how the market digests the NFP’s print later today but as it stands the pair could generate a hammer candle which will indicate the top of the current wave, which is also supportive of some relief for the battered rand. Fundamental factors: The fundamental factors are unfortunately stacked against the rand. I’ll start with the factors I deem as rand positive. Rand positive: • For those familiar with my USDZAR ideas, I always look at the price of precious metals, particularly platinum as SA is the world’s largest platinum producer by a country mile (I’ll do a separate idea on platinum and link the idea in the comments). The platinum price topped out around $1130/ounce this year in April and has fallen roughly 12% since then. The metal is however finding support around the $1000/ounce level which is positive for the rand and platinum. The price of platinum looks set to remain supported by the fact that the platinum market is expected to remain in a substantial deficit this year, largely due to the sanctions imposed on Russia and SA’s mining production constraints largely caused by the current electricity uncertainties. (www.reuters.com) • Regarding the liquidity landscape and US monetary policy, it seems as if global financial conditions are easing, and excess liquidity is rising, which will allow the rand to hopefully attract some foreign fiat given the rand’s carry trade appeal. Short-term rates seem to be peaking not just in the US but globally. Once global rates have peaked, it will allow the market to price in a future cyclical upturn for the US economy. Longer-term yields will capture this sentiment by moving higher as investors will prefer riskier assets (such as the rand and SA bonds) to reap the rewards on buoyant liquidity conditions. The US debt ceiling debacle will also be resolved soon which will bring investors at ease that more fresh liquidity will hit the markets. Rand negative: • The rand negative factors are largely due to the ongoing geopolitical factors, but before we get into that I’d just like to touch on SA’s trade balance. Earlier this week SA’s latest trade balance results were released, and the trade surplus is fizzling out. The last three trade balance totals were R10.71 billion, R6.30 billion and the latest balance stands at R3.54 billion. This decline in SA’s trade surplus is rand negative. • In terms of the geopolitical landscape and SA’s electricity uncertainties things aren’t looking pretty for the rand. The SARB’s Financial Stability Report from May 2023 did not make for pretty reading. The major idiosyncratic risk, which is still fresh to market participants, is the deterioration of SA’s diplomatic relations with the US following the comments by the US Ambassador to SA on 11 May 2023. Despite the claims being baseless, SA’s non-alignment stance in the conflict in Ukraine is hugely rand negative. The SARB highlighted the risk of secondary sanctions which could be imposed on SA due to the neutral stance. US Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, also explicitly warned SA when she visited back in January this year, to take the sanctions imposed on Russia seriously. Coupled with the Financial Action Task Force grey listing of SA financial institutions in February this year the potential implications for the SA economy are severe. If secondary sanctions are imposed on SA, it will make it impossible to finance any trade or investment flows, or to make or receive any payments from correspondent banks in US dollars. Furthermore, more than 90% of SA’s international payments, in whichever currency, are currently processed through the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) international payment system. Should SA be banned from SWIFT because of secondary sanctions, these payments will not be possible. • Additionally, the SARB highlighted SA’s electricity uncertainty and deteriorating rail and port infrastructure. In connection with the declining infrastructure is the amount of State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) debt relative to SA’s emerging market peers. SA has one of the highest SOE debt among emerging market currencies and as the government takes over the SOE debt the local tax payer and bond investor will have to foot the bill. • The above-mentioned factors have led to a mass exodus of funds out of SA and as mentioned earlier, local investors will have to absorb the sell-off from foreign investors. The proportion of SA Government bonds held by foreign investors has declined from 42% in April 2018 to 25% in February2023. If you got to here, I highly appreciate you taking the time to read and review my idea <3. I’ll update this idea as 3Q2023 progresses.
by Goose96
3
USDZAR-BUY strategyThe pair has been a roller coaster down, and as if it will never stop going down. There are valid reasons for the move, but now it starts looking a bit overdone. The daily chart is not oversold yet, and still looks negative. The 4-hourly chart is oversold and judging GANN lines support and resistance, we should have a chance to see recovery short-term. Strategy is ADD or BUY @ 18.49-18.5200 and take profit @ 18.6175-18.6300. The GANN resistance is somewhere 18.6400 as a note, I would BUY further on weakness between 18.45-18.4700.
Long
by peterbokma