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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

Fundamental & Technical analysis on USDZAR shorts Fundamental : Open Interest on the South African Rand is increasing which is a Bearish signal/confluence. Commercial (Hedgers) Short positions are also increasing which for Exotic pairs like USDZAR means they are covering their Longs and add yet another Bearish confluence. Non-Commercial is also increasing its Long positions which is once again Bearish since you have too see it from a 180 degree view point. COT Report : cot-reports.com Technical : On the Technical Analysis side of things we have the 5 EMA crossing down the 20 EMA at the same time that Momentum is negative and the Stochastic %K line is underneath the 50% line Stop Loss & Take Profits : To determine my Stop Loss and Take Profits I use a Fib Retracement drawn from a recent significant Low to a recent High. My strategy uses the 0.236 Fib LVL as the Stop Loss, for this trade that means 18.51172 on the chart is my Stop. Take Profit #1 is at Fib LVL 1.272, Take Profit #2 is at Fib LVL 1.414, Take Profit #3 is at Fib LVL 1.618, Take Profit #4 is at Fib LVL 2, Take Profit #5 is at Fib LVL 2.272, and my final Take Profit which is #6 is at Fib LVL 2.618.
Short
by Iateyourcroissant
“USDZAR on a Downward Trend”The South African Reserve Bank has reduced the policy interest rate to 8.00%. Following this move, the reversals at the 17.40 level in the USDZAR pair have drawn attention. The Fed had unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting. This situation has led to significant losses in dollar assets, while we can observe that any increases in the USDZAR pair remain limited. From a technical perspective, if the exchange rate surpasses the 17.70 level, rises may initially extend to 17.95 and then to the 18.20 resistance level. On the downside, if the 17.40 level is breached, we could see a decline to 17.15 and then to the 16.90 support level.
by primequotes
Rand going upThe Dollar has been weak n is getting weaker n the Rand is getting stronger by the day from point 17.88249 the Dollar has been losing its steam n the Rand has accumulating from those Dollar losses, now the price is trading below the Sep 12th n 16th and showing no real sign of breaking to the top side of the trend line to close above... The price will then look to create more steam on Rand for it to keep on growing, n the next price level for Rand on Dollar is 17.41700 Details on trade set up on chart
Short
by SMR_Analytics
5
Dollar to slip down n Rand to growThe Dollar has been weak n is getting weaker n the Rand is getting stronger by the day from point 17.88249 the Dollar has been losing its steam n the Rand has accumulating from those Dollar losses, now the price is trading below the Sep 12th n 16th and showing no real sign of breaking to the top side of the trend line to close above... The price will then look to create more steam on Rand for it to keep on growing, n the next price level for Rand on Dollar is 17.41700 trading set up on the chart
Short
by SMR_Analytics
9/16 LIVE TRADING IDEAS (STOCKS, FX, & COMMODITIES) | EDUCATION Join me as I document trading ideas for tomorrow 9/16/2024 and look through our watchlist for trading ideas. This is for educational & documentation purposes. As a part of our accountability challenge we are responsible for tracking our trading ideas daily and reviewing markets to train our eyes to look for our edge. STOCKS, FOREX, & COMMODITIES Watchlist. I use technical analysis to qualify trading opportunities and strickly pay attention to the daily chart. Feel free to leave comments on what you agree with or what you think is rubbish. This is a community effort and all opinions are welcome. Trade Safe, TL Turner
by TLTurnerTV
How I Made $2M in the Stock Market | Daily Trading PsychologyNicholas Darvas, a name that echoes through the annals of trading history, was not your typical Wall Street insider. A professional dancer by trade, Darvas' entrance into the stock market was as unconventional as his approach. His book, How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market, offers insights that are as relevant today as they were in the mid-20th century. But the core of Darvas' success wasn’t rooted in complex algorithms or insider information—it was rooted in his mindset. Darvas' journey is a testament to the idea that trading is 95% mental and only 5% technical. He didn't rely on flashy indicators or news headlines to guide his trades. Instead, he developed a disciplined, almost detached mindset. This stoic approach allowed him to navigate the unpredictable waves of the stock market with a level head, something that many traders today still struggle to achieve. The essence of Darvas’ method was simplicity combined with self-control. He famously developed the "Darvas Box" theory, a straightforward yet effective technical analysis tool. However, it wasn’t the box that made him millions; it was his mental approach to the market. He treated trading as a business, with strict rules and a clear strategy. When the market moved against him, he didn’t react emotionally or second-guess his strategy. Instead, he adhered to his plan, trusting that his disciplined approach would yield results in the long run. For traders looking to elevate their game, Darvas’ experience offers a critical lesson: master your mind, and the rest will follow. Emotions like fear and greed are the biggest enemies in trading. By maintaining a calm, almost indifferent attitude towards market fluctuations, traders can avoid the pitfalls that come with emotional decision-making. This mental fortitude allows for a focus on the bigger picture, rather than getting caught up in the noise of daily market movements. In practical terms, this means developing a trading plan and sticking to it, regardless of short-term results. It means setting clear goals, knowing when to enter and exit trades, and—perhaps most importantly—accepting losses as part of the game. Darvas didn’t win on every trade, but his stoic mindset ensured that when he did lose, it didn’t derail his overall strategy. In the end, the real takeaway from Darvas' story isn’t just about the money he made—it's about how he made it. By prioritizing mental discipline over technical complexity, traders can position themselves for long-term success. The markets will always be unpredictable, but with the right mindset, traders can navigate them with confidence and clarity. T. L. Turner
Education
by TLTurnerTV
2
USD/ZAR Reaches Key Demand Zone: Are We Set for a Reversal?The USD/ZAR currency pair has reached a significant demand area around the 17.72800 level, presenting a potential opportunity for a long position. This critical zone has caught the attention of traders and market analysts alike, especially those looking for a reversal setup based on market positioning data and technical indicators. COT Report Insights: A Contrarian Indicator A deeper dive into the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals intriguing insights into market sentiment for the USD/ZAR pair. The data shows a notable divergence between retail traders and commercials. Currently, retail traders are predominantly short on the USD/ZAR, betting on further declines in the pair. On the other hand, commercials—who often represent larger, more informed institutional players—are also short on the Rand in the Weekly Futures market. This contrarian stance by retail traders and commercials indicates that a significant market move may be on the horizon. Market Positioning and the Case for a Reversal The current market positioning suggests a classic oversold condition for the USD/ZAR pair. An oversold market is typically characterized by excessive selling pressure that has pushed prices lower than what underlying fundamentals might justify. This often leads to a potential reversal as market forces balance out and traders begin to cover their short positions. The convergence of these factors—an oversold technical condition, retail traders being heavily short, and commercials positioning themselves short on the Rand—sets the stage for a possible bullish reversal. Such a scenario could see the USD/ZAR pair rebound from the current demand area and make a move higher, as buying interest emerges to drive the pair up from its current levels. Technical Analysis Supports Bullish Outlook From a technical perspective, the 17.72800 demand zone has historically served as a strong support level, where buying pressure has previously emerged. This zone has acted as a magnet for price action, attracting significant buying interest whenever the pair has approached it. The current price action shows signs of stabilization around this key area, further bolstering the case for a bullish reversal. Additionally, the presence of bullish reversal patterns or signals, such as candlestick formations or momentum indicators turning upward from oversold levels, would add further confirmation to the potential for an upward move. Traders and analysts are closely monitoring the price action for these confirming signals to enter long positions with more confidence. Conclusion: Preparing for a Bullish Reversal Given the convergence of factors—COT report insights, oversold conditions, and technical support at the demand zone—the USD/ZAR pair appears primed for a potential bullish reversal. Traders should keep a close watch on upcoming price action and market data for further clues on the timing and strength of this anticipated move. As always, it's essential to manage risk carefully and consider both fundamental and technical aspects when planning trades. With the USD/ZAR trading near critical levels, a well-timed entry could offer a favorable risk-reward setup for those anticipating a reversal and subsequent upward movement in the pair. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/ZAR in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1