1BigPapi

1BigPapi

We are observing the convergence of short term and long term sentiment in the market. The 12h 20 EMA (short term support/measure of sentiment) is rising to meet the bull market support band (20w SMA and 21w EMA - long term measure of sentiment) could lead to a squeeze to the upside if bulls remain on-track. Powell's comments yesterday regarding March tapering...

1BigPapi

---skip to the end for a summary if you don't want to read this all-- Preface : Well what a week, crypto fam! Many of us in the 📗technical-analysis side of the house were expecting a little rally here - some expecting a 'dead cat' bounce (ie. a temporary rally before falling more), others expected the Canada and Ukraine narrative to serve as a catalyst for...

1BigPapi

Good morning all. Lets talk market outlook and what downside targets might be if the bearish trend continues. 1.) Above is the monthly chart for just this cycle (Nov 2020 to current). Unlike earlier cycles, we have a rising macro support. This support trendline overlays the point of control (POC) going into next month *-which is the price range with the most...

1BigPapi

Bitcoin has a decade of maturity, adoption and growth behind it. We should consider that "this time is different" isn't a meme, and take care in painting everything as "in 2018 or 2015 xx happened ... so in 2022 this will happen." While that -may- still hold true, you have to consider that as a new asset class, Bitcoin is evolving. One of the interesting...

1BigPapi

I still think downside is more likely than upside short term.. Russia news has a lot of markets and traders spooked this week, and for good reason. Also there are a lot of spicy support levels in the upper $30k range, between $36k to $38k. But on the other hand- bulls managed to rally price basically up to the 20/21w moving averages (MA) - also known as the bull...

1BigPapi

Just a small observation, as we know that inverse correlation at DXY typically plays out on higher timeframes. Not in-depth analysis, just an observation. The Dollar had a short rally here but might be soon due for a drop.

1BigPapi

We lost support on the channel we were in, the 38 fib level and the value range we were in. Russia news spooked markets today. I am looking for that price volume gap to fill before we see some upside. Probably a consolidation in this range between the $38k and $41k. Further downside is possible depending on how events play out in the coming days/weeks. All...

1BigPapi

Just monitoring fib levels and value ranges, I can see a scenario like this playing out. I am still looking for a move to the upside on higher timeframes but not before a little more retracement. Also watching the US Dollar Index (DXY) which is demonstrating some weakness after tackling a 20 year resistance level on it's seemingly long term death spiral. More...

1BigPapi

Not predictive analysis, just a quick reference with support and resistance levels marked across Bitcoin’s lifecycle. We are currently at a key resistance after bouncing from a mid-channel support. I think this chart reflects reduced volatility since 2021, indicative of growing trust, maturity and liquidity.

1BigPapi

In my last post I outlined what each of the retracement levels will mean for the market. A couple days later, some observations from a simple pattern and fib perspective - that 38% fib retracement is begging to be tapped again, after we rejected from the 23%. A wick below the uptrend support to spook the market then bounce? This is a bullish scenario so it also...

1BigPapi Updated 

Some traders are nervous following the release of US inflation data this week. The degree to which that was priced in over the recent months is unclear. And given how severe inflation is ( inflation growing at it's fastest in 40 years), means the US Government will need to respond with a faster taper, which can be bearish for markets. Also some nerves rattled in...

1BigPapi

We spoke about this before, but the US Dollar Index has a generally inverse relationship to the crypto markets, and Bitcoin specifically. Looking at the past few cycles, you see a very clear correlation, when DXY rises, Bitcion sinks, and when the DXY drops, Bitcoin rose. If you look at the 2017 cycles, its perfectly played out. And even 2021, we saw the proper...

1BigPapi

I've been told that I haven't updated my TA enough lately. I'll preface this by saying that if you scroll back over the past few months, this is playing out as I more/less predicted, so I've been a little slower to update. Basically from November thru January we were looking for evidence of a floor, and towards the end of January we saw more and more bullish...

1BigPapi

The "Bart" is a bit of a meme but its also a regular, reoccurring pattern in crypto. Bart Crypto Memes vs. Liquidity Gaps: In crypto, a “Bart” is a meme. However, in reality, a “Bart” is actually a common pattern in trading called a “liquidity gap.” Basically price tends to move in the path of least resistance, and a lack of liquidity (a lack of active trading in...

1BigPapi

Until bulls invalidate the macro downtrend, we remain trapped under fairly significant horizontal and diagonal resistance levels on higher timeframes. Bulls will need to close over that November resistance and $40k to definitively flip sentiment. From where we are at the time of posting, that would take a 3.5% rally to escape the macro downtrend. Failed...

1BigPapi Updated 

If Bitcoin continues to chase this downtrend, we have a great deal of confluence +/- 6% from $30k in terms of a possible floor. It would also validate the EW running flat correction theory. Despite the strong confluence, we can't rule out a floor higher or a wick lower into the upper or mid $20k range, but I suspect those are less likely. Note: I circled 3 areas...

1BigPapi

DXY is in an awkward place, with the inflationary measures of recent years should probably weight more on the dollar, but the printing in competing nations may just be placing us collectively on a similar trajectory. I'm watching for a clearer response at this resistance, its possible we can break above it but I suspect the dollar is still in a longterm move to...

1BigPapi

I wanted to compare popular projects over the past year and see how they faired. This admittedly was in response to some Bitcoin maxis that were ragging on altcoin investors saying that we would be paying for the transgression of investing in altcoins versus Bitcoin this week. And honestly just a quick read of the charts- if you invested smartly, you are still up...