1BigPapi

1BigPapi

I plan to do a more comprehensive writeup on each cycle but one thing is clear- on higher timeframes Bitcoin is posting a distinct pattern this cycle, and a complete deviation from historical norms. In fact, you might reasonably suggest that based on the pattern alone, this is a bullish trajectory. That said, obviously we have layers of complexity here,...

1BigPapi

Good morning crypto fam! So here we are, looks like we've been following a weak version of scenario 3. We posted more downside after I posted my TA. Here is what I think could happen next: A repeat of the July bottom appears still at play. This past July we retested the support level from the H1 2021 breakout in January before rallying; here we've retested the...

1BigPapi

So if you reference July, we retested the support level from the H1 2021 breakout in January before rallying. If this plays out again, $37k(ish) is the floor and our first stop on the way up is max pain for options expiry, around $39k. And from there, a confluence of resistance for bulls to tackle. One thing I thought about but should have factored into my last...

1BigPapi

The market is a little bit spooked as we approach what is likely the final stages of this downtrend.. testing the nerves of the remaining traders in the market. Keep in mind that even as Bitcoin dropped, it still it is respecting some lesser support levels. That said- we remain in a downtrend and those supports are downtrend supports. I think we have one of...

1BigPapi

Note that this is a bullish scenario that I have a measure of confidence in, but until we close above the resistance from November 2021 we remain in a macro downtrend. Summary: Besides coming into the end of this pattern, we also are approaching the options expiry and with about 1.5 months out from potential start of the US government's tapering. On-chain...

1BigPapi

Background: Bitcoin/crypto bull markets previously rallied around declines in DXY on higher timeframes. We are currently posting a possible rejection from this resistance originating nearly 20 years ago and confirmed again starting 5 years ago. At the moment Bitcoin is riding a weak support, but from here I anticipate either for a failed rally (wick) to the...

1BigPapi

Last time DXY rejected off this trendline saw .... a spicy rally for crypto markets. Weakness in the dollar = strength in crypto typically.

1BigPapi

As predicted in my earlier posts, Bitcoin rejected off my "bear last defense" zone starting around $44.1k. It continues to strike a similar pattern to the last 3 drawdowns this cycle, especially from a sentiment and supply perspective where a massive drop in supply (signaling whale/MM buying) and retest of the 12h 20EMA (signaling rising bullish strength) occurs...

1BigPapi

Bull are getting closer to flipping the narrative from bearish to bullish, but will it be today? We could see a repeat of late December with one last test to the downside on higher timeframes, to confirm support, grab liquidity then rally that into a short squeeze.

1BigPapi Updated 

As noted earlier in the week, this range is where bears take their stand. This resistance trendline persisted for over two months now, but we are approaching the moment of a likely breakout to the upside, its just a matter of whether bulls can muster a breakout here, or we ride the resistance down a little longer first. Bullish would be a close over the...

1BigPapi

Bitcoin bulls, its test time- this resistance/trendline has kept Bitcoin down for two months. We are approaching the end of the pattern and while I expect a break to the upside, its not a guarantee of course. Historical patterns suggest we have a little more downside before breakout but its not unreasonable to see a breakout here, especially given the massive...

1BigPapi

On lower timeframes Bitcoin broke through its mid-range sentiment test with the 12h 20 EMA. Usually a close over that precedes larger rallies, but a failure to hold this level will see another swing to the downside for more liquidity and consolidation before trying again. Considering the $45.5k confluence of resistance overhead, I am higher confidence of a short...

1BigPapi Updated 

Idea : If you zoom out you find that Bitcoin has been posting quarterly(ish) cycles of bull and bear since our traditional bull market cycle ended in February>March 2021. Preface : Given that bulls/whales have a challenge to try to run up the market one more time before the US fed begins QT/ tapering, we are looking for signs of a rally in the next ~4-6 weeks...

1BigPapi

New Years week has been busy so I haven't been able to update regularly. But one thing I've been watching is this potential breakdown from the bear pennant on mid timeframes. A lot of talk about dips into the upper $30k range, and I think a wick on the weekly is reasonable, but $40k range is impressive support so far.

1BigPapi

We know a lot of DEFI governance tokens were hit hard in 2021 and are currently either dead or undergoing evolutions (minus a few market leaders). Sushi is a quality project but its token is in a strong downtrend, with the moving averages inverting bearish on high timeframes and a strong rejection, more downside is likely here.

1BigPapi

While I feel there is a possibility of a rally in the not so distant future.. we are still trending bearish with the 12h 20 EMA confirming short to mid-term bearish sentiment in the market. Bulls need a clean break over this EMA to launch a larger rally. Our last rally in late December climbed over the EMA but the 20/ 21w MA bull market band rejected Bitcoin and...

1BigPapi

Lets review the market over the past 48 hours: Bitcoin was rejected from two key levels: 1.) the 20/21w MA bull market support band. Bulls rallied Bitcoin for a second time this week to challenge that band of support-turned-resistance. And for a second time they were denied, resulting in a small selloff, followed by; 2.) a retest and denial of support on the...

1BigPapi

I was looking at the the key resistance and support levels- if this breaks to the upside as the pattern suggests, we could begin the rally into early 2022/Q1 that I am predicting. This one could be spicy due to the extreme supply crunch and accumulation observed over the past two quarters. Of course there are some very key resistance levels to overcome, starting...