1BigPapi

1BigPapi

In early December the 20/21w MA support band was in the same range, and Bitcoin bulls attempted a final rally to recover it- but were firmly rejected at a resistance just under that support band in the $50k-51k range.. leading to our weeks of bearish indecision. We are again at this level, with a quieter rejection and retracement that appears to be painting a...

1BigPapi

Bitcoin posted a clear breakout from resistance that plagued its since early November, and the 12h 20 EMA that it was trapped under. In the past 24 hours it confirmed support on the 20 EMA and rallied convincingly over $50k. As you see overhead is the 20/21w MA support band- the oft discussed bull market support. As predicted in my earlier TA, the cycles between...

1BigPapi Updated 

Historically bearish cycles (measured by 20/21w MA inversions) average 17% shorter duration each time. This suggests the next bullish inversion of the 20/21w MA (ie. bull market confirmation) will arrive in mid March 2022. But for a bullish inversion to happen, bulls need to rally the price enough to lift the 21w EMA over the 20w SMA, signaling a macro bull...

1BigPapi

Looking at diminished returns over the past ten years and we find an (approximately) 82% reduction in cycle growth at peak with each cycle. That means we may have logged this cycle's top as we transition into this new phase of Bitcoin's lifecycle. Also note that after 2018 we also see what appears to be the new cycle emerging and the ten year old channels, while...

1BigPapi

Preface: Many would argue that Bitcoin's current stage of it's lifecycle is coming to an end as it evolves into whatever comes next as the crypto market sees broader adoption, utility and trust. I know some will argue this point, but I believe you can support this with facts and hard math. You can see weaker growth and corrections each cycle, you see the floor...

1BigPapi

If you look at the current pattern, we have what appears to be a bearish pennant . If you do a "by the books" target for breakout, that would land it firmly at a double bottom around $30k. That said I don't expect we have the liquidity for such a dump at the moment, unless whales spend a great deal of their holdings to do so. We still see macro net accumulation...

1BigPapi

To be honest I am not really exploring the moon's correlation to price this time. But the chart is displaying some key levels- Note the fibonacci retracement levels and how well they played out. On the macro, measuring from July to today, we saw a wick retrace under the 50% level, then recover and find support at the 50% both on November's close and currently in...

1BigPapi

Looking at back, we see the 28 degree uptrend support from October 2020 continued to hold price on this rally to the upside. We wicked down -perfectly- to retest and confirm support this week. Along with other data, it suggests that MM got the retest and bullish confirmation they were looking for. And with their continued re-accumulation, they will fueling up for...

1BigPapi

This is a very simple analysis. I'm watching the macro pattern playing out on Bitcoin's monthly chart. Of course the top resistance level is subject to some interpretation, but its not unreasonable to log a flat trendline, which suggests a bullish ascending triangle. Statistically these break to the upside more than the downside. Combine this with heavy...

1BigPapi

First lets talk about on-chain: macro on-chain shows continued signs of accumulation. Supply continues to drop at a brisk pace and netflows are predominantly bullish. We are in the third round of strong accumulation since July. This is in contrast with the recent price action which is muted with a bullish sentiment. Key levels are marked. In the past 24 hours...

1BigPapi

The white boxes on here are key levels to watch, the purple bands are minor support levels or order blocks that might come into play. Bottom line-- Bulls need to hold the $53k range, its one of the last meaningful support levels over $50k. The yellow channel we fell back into is our immediate resistance level, then a support flipped resistance at $55.4k. Bulls...

1BigPapi

For those worried about the market dropping more, below are the three critical support levels to keep an eye on, either one can serve as a bottom for price. Additionally keep an eye on the MACD. Bearish Scenario (another wave down): I'm watching the 12 chart, on the MACD if we see price reject a bullish cross (blue line crossing over the red line), that will...

1BigPapi

It was covered before, but if you backtest Bitcoin's 2021 correlation to the moon cycle, you find an approximately 80% success rate if you laddered long entries during the week of a full moon, or laddered shorts over the week of a new moon. Basically the moon cycle is more accurate than almost everyone reading this. Background : astrology has an interesting...

1BigPapi

The title says it all- RSI rejected further upside here here and began to drop. This is a deviation from the 2014 pattern and might signal a stronger retrace is beginning.

1BigPapi

From a levels perspective, we remain in the moderate bull market range. We haven't breached the top level/peak mania range yet, and this cycle seems reluctant to do so, but that doesn't mean it isn't coming. It would be unusual for a bull cycle to end with a bearish ranging only a couple thousand away from the earlier cycle ATH. On-chain data indicates miners...

1BigPapi

Watching the DXY chart I'm concerned about a long term breakout being forecast here, largely because of the impact it will have on Bitcoin. In recent months Bitcoin managed to resist the weight of a rising DXY but I think the convergence of other factors, along with DXY's rise, are growing too much for the market to ignore. Add to that a confluence of levels...

1BigPapi

I mapped key support and resistance levels on this chart as a point of reference for the coming days. At a higher timeframe I'm watching for the possibility of an expanding wedge, which could technically serve as a macro continuation pattern, but my confidence level isn't high yet and I'll examine lower timeframes and on-chain for supporting data. In the...

1BigPapi

I am still in bed, so a proper update will have to wait... But I know for some traders today is scary so I wanted to post a quick update. First you should strap in- if $60k support levels don't hold, we will watch a range of support from $53k up to $60k. I don't want to see us close below $52k, that risks the start of a longer term bearish trend. I think a...