AccuTrade2000

AccuTrade2000

USD/JPY carved out a lower top at 158.85 than the one achieved last year at 162 resulting in a steady pullback. It has formed an interim low near 146.50 last week. A brief rebound has materialized. If the pair fails to overcome the 200-DMA at 151.30/152.00, there would be risk of persistence in downtrend. Next objectives could be located at projections of 145 and...

AccuTrade2000

 EUR/USD has experienced a sharp up move after breakout from a multi-month base recently. It has faced interim resistance around 1.0950 last week. A brief pullback is taking shape but the 200-DMA at 1.0750/1.0720 could provide support. Only if this is breached would there be risk of a larger decline.  Defence of 1.0750/1.0720 can lead to persistence in up move....

AccuTrade2000

Neutral —Price signals suggest some resiliency in the CAD despite all the recent volatility in the market. USDCAD closed little changed on the day yesterday and the “doji” candle signal that formed on the daily chart suggests the USD’s push into the low 1.45 area has stalled (close to where early March USD gains peaked). A look at the intraday chart supports the...

AccuTrade2000

Neutral —The EUR is consolidating. A minor peak may have formed at 1.0947 yesterday but the underlying trend higher in the EUR remains strong and scope for EUR losses may be limited, given the recent pattern of trade where strong advances have been followed by brief consolidations before gains resume. Look for support on EUR dips to the mid/upper 1.08s. Intraday...

AccuTrade2000

A fixation on US recession risks has reduced the likely potency of today’s US CPI release. In recent months, the market was fixated on US inflation, parsing some of the data to the third decimal point. Barring a notable outlier, today’s data is likely to be met with a shrug if it matches consensus expectations for a modest drift towards target at both the headline...

AccuTrade2000

The fiscal euphoria around the EUR remains in place this morning, enabling it to shrug off tariffs and negotiation wobbles. On paper, this should not have been a good morning for the EUR. Its recent surge has been built largely on hopes for greater support for growth from German fiscal policy, perhaps echoed in other parts of Europe. The Green Party’s Robert...

AccuTrade2000

For EUR-USD, we are raising our 2025 year-end forecast to 1.04 from 0.99. Expansionary fiscal spending has the potential to drive EUR-USD even higher in the most optimistic scenario (not our base case). European leaders are losing faith in the US security umbrella and are rushing to strengthen from within. It has triggered a new sense of urgency, reminiscent of...

AccuTrade2000

In stark contrast to Donald Trump’s first administration, recent comments by a number of key US officials suggested that Trump 2.0 would be laser-focused on (lowering) UST yields rather than (boosting) stock market returns. This is significant given the administration’s plan to notably boost fiscal spending by USD4-5trn as part of the 2026 budget. This could mean...

AccuTrade2000

The week has started with more risk off, with the S&P500 losing more than 2.5% on Monday. This time, the US equity slump was not isolated and European equities also suffered. As a result, the dollar hung on to its haven status better than when US-EU equities were diverging, and we saw some textbook risk off trading in FX: JPY, USD, EUR and CHF gaining against...

AccuTrade2000

Germany’s Chancellor-to-be, Friedrich Merz, is facing obstacles to his plan to push through constitutional reforms to the debt brake before 25 March, when the new parliament is seated. Yesterday, the Green party – needed for the 2/3 majority – announced it would oppose the defence spending plan and requested greater environmental guarantees. The euro dropped on...

AccuTrade2000

The EUR is having one of its best weeks in recent years. Its spectacular run of gains is fuelled by market hopes that a combination of ramped up defence spending and growing prospects for an end of the war in Ukraine could boost the appeal of the EUR-denominated stocks and bonds. Today, EU leaders will gather in Brussels for a special summit to discuss European...

AccuTrade2000

The CHF could not resist the EUR and the EUR/USD rallied to four-month highs above 1.0630 last night, as EUR/CHF ultimately jumped one big figure to 0.9450, still within its well-established 0.93-0.95 range. While global risk appetite should remain the primary CHF driver in the short term, attention could temporarily shift onto the domestic CPI release for...

AccuTrade2000

FX markets remain gripped by fears about the growth-negative impact from the trade policies of the Trump administration. Investor worries continue to weigh on global stock markets, bond yields and commodity prices. The USD has been able to regain some ground vs G10 risk-correlated currencies but struggled to perform vs other liquid, safe-haven currencies like the...

AccuTrade2000

EUR/USD has extended its recent move higher on the back of more news reports that the EU and individual member states would be ramping up military spending. We believe that the outlook for EUR/USD could improve even further in the coming months. Firstly, the EU plans to step up its defence spending could both help domestic demand and boost long-term EGB real...

AccuTrade2000

At 3:30pm CET today, Bank of England MPC members Andrew Bailey, Huw Pill, Megan Greene and Alan Taylor tesify to the Treasury Select Comittee on February's 25bp rate cut. This comes at a time when the market is pricing just 57bp of BoE cuts this year compared to 72/73bp of easing priced for the Federal Reserve. While we ultimately think that the BoE cuts three...

AccuTrade2000

As above, EUR/USD broke decisivley higher on prospects of a fiscal bazooka out of Europe. The speed with which the Europeans are moving is impressive, especially in Germany. Expect much focus now on whether the agreed fiscal changes in Germany move swiftly and easily through parliament over coming weeks. The prospect of large European stimulus is very present in...

AccuTrade2000

The DXY trade-weighted dollar index broke decisively under 106 yesterday as European currencies rallied on the prospects of major fiscal stimulus. Critics say that European leaders only react in a crisis – and certainly the prospect of the US withdrawing its security umbrella from Europe is a crisis. The two significant events here yesterday were: a) the European...

AccuTrade2000

The shift to defensive FX positioning is helping the Japanese yen. Equally, the threat of a global trade war and what it means for growth prospects can see global interest rates edge closer towards the low rates in Japan - also a yen positive. Looking for the yen to outperform on the crosses now will be a popular view. Pairs like EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY will...