Futures have dropped to new lows, and we're starting to get severely oversold with oil. USO has been accumulating nicely with lower lows and the RSI showing divergence towards the upside. We have June CALLS before this week, but will be adding more longer term CALLS slowly over time. We know that suppliers are trying to make deals about the supply, the demand...
USO has taken a huge hit after the Russia and OPEC+ debacle. Since then, countries are making an effort to cut production to bring back oil. Since then, the RSI has been diverging towards the upside and we are now in a squeeze with upward momentum. We have been buying accumulating CALLS for June. $4, $5, and $6 strikes.
Reached the peak midday. Took a sizeable loss on initial puts yesterday but added more $34 May 1 PUTS today. As expected, big price rejection and huge move down during AH to $34 level. Already nearly ITM now. Should continue this correction in the next few days.
Since our last post, we hit our entry at $114 today. We entered into Jan 2021 $140 CALLS for $3.40 ea. Very cheap with low options IV. We're already up 20% at EOD before that nice run-up during after hours. HOWEVER, be wary here. We could be forming a BEAR FLAG on the daily if the price does not break above the upper trend line.
Huge move up today with the peak in the middle of the day. Way above my 99.7% upper BB line. Way too much momentum for a another huge gap up. Entered short-term puts today 5/1 $34P and 4/24 $30P $37.44 SL
Neck line held today. Added more $110 5/15 PUTS on ZM at the top. ($150 SL) Looks like volume is decreasing and accumulation has stopped. Expecting it to complete the second shoulder here in the next few weeks. Tomorrow will be a very telling day regarding which way the momentum will go.
Charts of SPY and the Top 3 S&P500 stocks by weight: AAPL, AMZN and MSFT What is the letter of the day? V "There will be no V-up" It's not a question of whether there will BE a V up. There already IS a V up. The question is whether you PLAYED the V up from the bottom. How is this an argument when this has already happened? Whether we go up or down, V up...
Ford is now entering a bearish pennant pattern on the daily chart. Bearish pennants are TERRIBLE at predicting movement (50-58% correct historically). HOWEVER, the stock is STILL distributing despite these increases above the $5 mark. There is some underlying weakness in the stock. I am not trading this, but I expect this to drop in the next few weeks below $4....
Momentum on ZM seems to be slowing today after a 25% increase since April 7. This may be the top of the second shoulder. If you have calls from last week, I recommend taking profits. We're in $110P and $125P for 5/15 and 4/24
As expected, VIX has broken down below the support line. It's going to be incredibly hard for it to pick up at this point barring some new natural disaster. Keep in mind that a RECESSION does NOT mean VOLATILITY. Do not equate these two. Fear of recession will not cause VIX to go up. If you're still holding puts as recommended last time, you can sell today or...
As we said before, we are not playing BA OPTIONS. We have accumulated BA shares at an average price of $110. We are pretty happy with where we are sitting. However, a drop below $120 is possible. It is unclear whether it will be that bad or if it will slowly climb up, but if it drops below my avg, I will add more. If the stock reaches $300 in 2 years, that's still...
NFLX was not immune to the effects of the coronavirus scare. The price dropped from close to $400 to below $300 in about two weeks. However, notice how the accumulation during that time and the buying continued throughout the entire time. The accumulation has stayed at a steady rate. A/D is one of my favorite indicators because it's a powerful tool when you see a...
How is the VIX priced? If you look up the equation that the CBOE uses to calculate the VIX, you'll see it's based on SPX OTM derivatives dated 30-days out. The more the strike prices for these derivatives fluctuate, the VIX should increase. If you think about it, the reason why the VIX generally represents the inverse of SPX during times of uncertainty is that...
Didn't make sense that this company was doing better than SBUX during the coronavirus crisis. It didn't even take a hit but actually INCREASED mid January when the coronavirus started really ramping up. I'm not saying short Chinese companies, but the lack of regulation, fraud and widespread corruption is something that makes me nervous trading Chinese companies....
Bought UVXY when it was $14 and rode it up to $130. It has since tanked expectedly as these things do when volatility starts to drop. Now the price has been frustratingly staying the same. However, you should keep your UVXY puts with iron hands and buying dips because I don't see this going back up. You can see at the arrows where the selling is continuing...
Nearing the end of this falling wedge pattern now. Recent candle patterns have really shown the waves of buying and selling. Although it seems that buyers are starting to win out with a recent cup and handle formation. A good stock to buy imo. IV is too high for me to play options.
ZM enjoyed this pump from the coronavirus. This attention isn't always good because if you have a bad product with alot of users, it will be hard to recover back to that number of users after the virus is over. During the two peaks within 4 days of each other, we have a strong green and red candle. The buying has steadily decreased since then (blue rectangle). RSI...
Inverted H&S forming with following supporting evidence of recovery: - Increasing volume at the apex on the right shoulder. This was when OPEC+ announced cuts to production. Scared sellers took advantage of the pump to $5.8 to unload, but momentum has stayed strong. - This past week has seen the first strong flip from sellers to buyers being in control since the...