Arete-HI

Arete-HI

With Trump becoming president and Chinese US trade relations sure to to get heated, can't but help thinking that the abandoned chipmaker Intel still has a part to play in the future of chip production. Looking at $30 range retracement, options market currently is pricing $30 as fair value for a year from now, itm looks like best value on premium priced $30,...

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Deep state after Musk. Unethical shorting, however looking at value pre "self driving cars", "robots", "value of cars only goes up", "spacex=tsla" I think you can ethically short the company without bringing in politics. Share price is 50% off high, and further off 1/2 of that high, and looks to be in a downtrend that is almost 50% off that high. Without...

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UPS looks like heading into a disputing value territory, range looks solid, don't expect below or above for a while.

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Yes, I'm very contrarian here. Lots of GS puts based purely on daily RSI. Long time to fill that gap, now we there.

Arete-HI Updated 

Not alone here, but coming to my own conclusions. The waterfall outlined above showed a point where many positions were forced liquidated. I doubt courage exists to rebuy as the positions were institutional drops, not retail shaken, the initial drop was retail shaken. Opposing positions from institutional drop will look to add, or themselves become a catalyst...

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Market, Fed Speakers, Bond market, all saying inflation is peaking. Opened Jan 25P

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H&S pattern may have confirmed, depending on where the right shoulder is located, would indicate a steep drop over the following weeks. Generally, I'm a contrarian, but I may switch to sell side and go with this trend.

Arete-HI Updated 

Looking at a few possible bottoms, the news cycle has been vicious for bonds, this is the sort of news you see at a possible bottom. Full on capitulation to get those bottom barrel discounts. RSI just entered oversold, but barely, going to start looking at taking a position, but not yet. It is attractive, but not free money yet. Likely want to take a position...

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30YR rates approaching oversold, looking to short technical reversal sometime soon.

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Since Covid over have good channel, sure got overextended, but just gives you an idea of how far we will go. For what reason would oil demand ever go down? And for what reason would oil supply ever increase? May looks like good target for back to $85. Was thinking some oil producers but with Elizabeth Warren on the hunt I think not.

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Wow this falling wedge was textbook, but just scraping by the minimum 3 month timeframe. According to textbook would retrace to target B, or roughly 15K, +4% from here over a relatively short amount of time. However, many falling wedges do retrace the breakout rather quickly in the 2nd week after. After all, the markets don't go straight up do they? Lately we...

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Looks like could short term drop into opex 3/18 back down to 830-840. Although long term nasdaq is bullish and could see more continuation into next week sans WW3.

Arete-HI Updated 

Looks like getting ripe here. If pattern continues due for bounce, if pattern confirms due for big bounce. if we break pattern god help us all from WW3

Arete-HI Updated 

Lots of buyers came in at the low 130's, people mistook these buyers for long volatility positions, volatility rose, people dumped equities for algo driven VOL strategies. I think we seen a spiral of bets unfold that don't represent the true market. Of course hedgies piled on to TLT, knowing full well that it is a great short term trade (and that adding uvxy...

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Looks like we touched here yet again, accumulation is sitting inverse to RSI. Goldman has some headwinds, earnings were not 'amazing,', $XLF and $DJI being sold off take away passive flow, and TLT has rallied hard Sun, Monday, and today. There is a narrative that banks will have much better earnings once interest rates rise, and they can profit off all the money...

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Looking at overall market rally including $arkk, $btc, $qqq. In this scenario $googl should outpace $qqq of a factor 3:1. Took 1 monthly contract until midpoint of new channel is reached 2750.

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I expect some bounce here, or a steep drop, but some action coming. With all the negative news and 69 tested 3 times, I am biased for upside.

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I like this price action, I think we are finding a bottom here, let's see how the rest of the week plays out for confirmation.