Audacity618

Audacity618

Unlike other headline news, long term interest rates breaking out to the upside is an immediate threat to equity prices especially if it's driven by bond vigilantes rather than strong economic news. This will immediately compress valuations and particularly hurt high growth and small caps the most. In addition, this is not a one-off headline where equities markets...

Audacity618 Updated 

Small Caps look the least extended in this equity rally and I really like the tight ranges before it advances to it's next box. My analysis puts IWM imminent on its next advance upwards. Put this trade idea under: "The trend is your friend until it bends".

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More of a warning rather than a call for bearish or bullish price plays. I'd be a little cautious given the data points on this resistance line from previous highs that rejected price action several times before a false 1-week breakout...

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Not really liking the treasury bond price action. Still believe that bond vigilantes are dumping US treasuries... not liking the head and shoulders pattern on the weekly... the higher treasury yields don't seem to be impacting the equity markets... until they do.

Audacity618

Prior plunges below this custom weekly Keltner channel have a good track record of highlighting buying opportunities. In simile terms.. when markets plunge too much and too fast, a great accumulation occurs with wild oscillations. After the accumulation will come a "disbelief rally" where the market will continue to rip higher in a concave down curve to the...

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OKLO is my personal favorite nuclear play that feeds off the AI energy. Really beat up since it's height in early February, down over 50% as of today (as are a lot of other stocks given the macroeconomic backdrop). Chris Wright, a member of its Board of Directors, was confirmed as the U.S. Secretary of Energy on February 3, 2025. As a result, Wright has stepped...

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The Russell 2000 is down 17% from November highs. According to Bank of America, small caps are not pricing in a recession. Historical small-cap selloffs during recessions have been 35-40%, with forward P/Es dropping about 30%. Earnings are still 38% below their peak. Small caps trade at 14.2x earnings, slightly below the historical average, suggesting they reflect...

Audacity618

Confluence of bearish signals here. Target $100. - Death Cross 50ma < 100ma - Breakdown of year-long log trend - under 200ma - Topping Arch pattern

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Retracement back to ~527 and then lower leg down to >500. Following a similar pattern to the Jan 2022 top -> a failed breakout higher, 50-60% retracement, than lower leg.

Audacity618 Updated 

Putting aside my personal beliefs on the current state of the economy (bad inflation and job figures for January combined with looming potential tariffs), The Nasdaq tape reads very bullish breaking out of this tight wedge formation (blue), if it can hold this breakout and continue to move upward, I believe we have a nice bull rally play to go long.

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The amount of hyper speculation in quantum stocks is still mind boggling. I see this tracking a classic bubble pattern where we may start to flip from the "return to normal" phase to a "fear" sell off as we get closer to earnings (early March). Short this back to under $6 from the bull trap.

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Hot CPI providing a good dip in Treasuries which could recover quickly like a similar dip in late May 2024. We are in a buy support zone given the last year or so of trading range.

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Clean breakout of this wedge (yellow) provides a technical bullish direction back to the teens, most optimistic targets puts this on track to $17. Monthly CCI swinging back up as well which also provides confirmation of the breakout. Look to see volume pickup to add more, earnings in a little over a month.

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Trump plans new tariffs: 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, 10% on Chinese goods, starting Saturday (Feb 1, 2025). Citing fentanyl and immigration concerns, the move threatens $1.6 trillion in North American trade, shaking markets and weakening regional currencies. Trump's tariffs during his first term caused significant market volatility. Major tariff...

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Alibaba's stock got a boost after it unveiled its new AI model, Qwen2.5-Max. This advanced model can be used directly through Qwen Chat or via API on Alibaba Cloud, highlighting the company's push to enhance its cloud services. Reports show that Qwen2.5-Max outshines other leading AI models in key areas, which has investors excited. They see this as a smart move...

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A lot of Tesla's future earnings potential is already priced into the stock, particularly with pre-revenue products like Optimus and Robo-taxis. This has led to an expensive stock heading into earnings, with both the P/E and P/S ratios higher than historical averages. While it's true that these ratios aren't at all-time highs, the current PEG ratio raises some...

Audacity618 Updated 

I believe this rebound in RGTI will ultimately be a bull trap, but this could be a very strong rebound given how fast we plunged from $20 to $6. I'm on lookout to renter short if we start to make it to ~15.50 (61.8% Retracement). My chart shows the viewpoint from Log and Linear since we are dealing with such large % changes both viewpoints are helpful. Reminder...

Audacity618 Updated 

RKLB below the monthly EMA and RSI dipping below 50 is giving a big SELL signal after a massive runup in 2024 likely due to pressure from TNX and stop loss triggers. Why RocketLab skyrocketed in 2024: Rocket Lab's stock skyrocketed by over 360% in 2024, thanks to impressive achievements and solid growth. In Q3, they pulled in $104.8 million in revenue, beating...