Auguraltrader

Auguraltrader

Previously posted and heads up... Did not quite work immediately because of POTUS and the Trade War II/ Did a cliff dropper and now it looks about ripe for the rally, confirmation when it is above the resistances shown. Heads up!

Auguraltrader

As previously expected, a lower low has been achieved. What was not expected was the speed, magnitude and extent of the fallout. Next up, since it is about 3.5 Standard Deviations out, we can start looking for a consolidation, although there might be slightly more downside and we need a higher low in the expected range within box. Having said that, it is possible...

Auguraltrader Updated 

As expected from previous analysis, there is a lower high likely as the TD Sell Setup is Perfected. This just missed the target but has the TD Bear Trend intact Following, a Bearish Engulfing pattern plus a Gap Down occurred yesterday. Breaking back into Extension Zone box... and likely to protrude out the other side. MACD is turning down in the bearish zone...

Auguraltrader

From the last time, the Combined US equity indexes did keep into the Extension Zone (EZ) as marked out. This Zone is defined from the lowest point of the TD Setup and the range is determined by the range of the candle that has the lowest point, this case being Candle 9 (4 March). So after the expected two week in the EZ, we see an indication of the week ahead to...

Auguraltrader

Marked out previously, the US indexes broke down a tad earlier and retested to fail only to drop further based on jitters and jitter-induced expectations. While the candlestick is long and solid pretty much, there is an extension zone to expect more of the downside to overreach and be oversold before a bounce. You should be able to see that the Buy Setup is...

Auguraltrader

From the previously marked timeline on 18 Feb 2025, just days later, you see the combined US Indexes plummet to cut through the middle decision box (purple), and extrude out below. This formed the double top second peak in essence, and the days following just closed at a two month low. While this might appear Bearish, it is worth noting the lower tails in...

Auguraltrader

The recent price action stalled flattish with 4 days of doji... but overall, these doji have long upper tails. This means that with every attempt intraday to rise, eventually it is smacked down. Hence, selling pressure not tremendous, but enough to keep it in place. MACD though a slightly lagging indicator, has already heads up that the daily chart of BTCUSD is...

Auguraltrader

As highlighted previously, there were issues with the recent BTCUSD Bitcoin rally... and so it is very clear now that there is a TOP resistance to breakout eventually. This is marked out by the green box at about 107K. Furthermore, breaking back into the purple box also suggests a breakdown out of the lower end... to which just about happened. The thing is, this...

Auguraltrader

Overall, and fundamentally, Bullish on Crypto. However, few things are red flagging... A surprise sudden rally that appears to have ended yesterday with a long upper tail to close the daily candle in very bad shape. This candle itself shows the selling pressure, above the previous day down candlestick that is pretty much a Bearish Engulfing. The recent reversal...

Auguraltrader

Pretty much enough said. Warning given weeks ago. Now it is turning. ALL the leads are bearish, red flags ON Just waiting for the playbook to pan out with a hard pull back. Last week we already saw the equity markets do a trend reversal pattern of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Time to deliver the main Bearish course... Stay safe!

Auguraltrader

As pointed previously for the last few years... the SG10Y Singapore Govt 10 year Bond Yields chart have an uncanny correlation to give us a heads up on when the US Equity markets like the S&P500 SPY SPX are going to keel over and drop. On such instance is here and now. A higher high and a clear breakout after a Fibonacci retracement, within a bigger retracement....

Auguraltrader

Just yesterday, the line was drawn and by the close of the day/week, it was done... the line broke with a close below. So, zooming out into the weekly charts, and we see the TD Sequential starts for a Buy Setup (means bullish till end of Setup). Projecting a simple waterfall scenario brings US equities down to target at the TDST, and meeting a confluence of...

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As expected, not a good finish, not a great start. Now, a potential trend change pattern might be forming. This pattern has a series of two of each Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). With that criteria fulfilled (LL 926 and 925.75), the Critical Support Line can be drawn at 925.75. A breach and breakdown to close below 925.75 is likely to send the US equities...

Auguraltrader

In this second part, the Crude Futures Daily chart is used. In this chart, there are marked points where the SuperTrend Buy signal is triggered and is coincided by a green Rate of VolDiv (RoVD, bottom panel). There is one on 8 October but there was no comcomitant indication and clearly it "failed". The others that fulfilled the condition are marked with a yellow...

Auguraltrader

Previously, heads up about BTCUSD and it was pretty spot-on. Oddly enough, CRUDE OIL CL1! is next. For the first part, here we look at the marked time lines, and the effect after these time lines. 5 of the last 6 times, saw a bullish rally. Of these, 4 of the 5 occasions had the Rate of VolDiv (custom indicator) trend changed for an uptick. In essence, the...

Auguraltrader

The Weekly Leading Indicators have had broken into Bearish mode. SG10Y have broken up of a trendline TIPS and TLT have broken down support JNK similarly broke down of support The combined US Equities weekly chart are at an indecision range, but daily chart analyis tells of a more bearish story. SOXL is holding up somewhat though. So while all 4 Leading Indicators...

Auguraltrader

Quick analysis of the Combimed US Equities daily chart... A significant rebound last week put the closing back into the decision box. Thing is, it went out the other end, as expected it would, BUT ended with a doji (indecision candlestick) and came back into the box... which suggest an exit to thru the lower end. This is abou to happen over the last days of the...

Auguraltrader

Previously, called for a moderated 88K BTCUSD by the end pf 2024. Its two days away and currently about 93K. What I like about these recent downside targets is that they get close but not there nor exceeded. This tells me that there is underlying demand. However, as previously marked, it really appears that regardless of support currently, there should be a...