AynCzubas

AynCzubas

Shanghai Class B Shares have thrusted out of a triangle which ended in June 2014. The index still has just a bit further to rise before reaching the minimum expected upward thrust level, which nearly coincides with the upper trendline drawn through the peaks of 2001 and 2007. Targeting at least 567-586 before the correction ensues. This action is of probable...

AynCzubas

A triangle appears to be completing in the ATX. At this point, the presumed final "E" wave has breached the upper trendline (quite common and indicates that the thrust will be extended) is at a point where the minimum expected post-triangle downward thrust would be exactly 50% of the decline in the ATX from 2007-9. This triangle is either a 4th wave or a B wave....

AynCzubas

Though I suspect the DAX will first decline in a 4th wave, I detect a cluster of high targets between 12895-13396 based on agreement among various waves' proportional interrelationships and trendlines. I believe that area will be where the bull market peaks.

AynCzubas

The present impulse wave rally in the USD vs the Yen since 2011 is just part of an upward correction following the downward impulse thrust from a massive triangle that developed between 1995 to 2007. Assuming the E wave of the immediately developing minor triangle bottomed at 118.486, the minimum upward thrust should hit 128-129 if not higher. I assume this...

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The structure in Silver/Euro looks cleanly impulsive since December (though wave 1 was so rapid that it was not discernibly segmented). It appears a 4th wave has been developing as a bullish triangle. Whether I use the length of wave 1 from the base of wave 4 or use the potential post-triangle thrust from what I suspect is the end of wave E (down) of the...

AynCzubas

My recent post on Silver, which has a different wave count but similar implications, implies further downside prior to the start of a long term rebound or bull market. One popular view on the gold price has been that the bearish triangle which began in 2013 traced out its total 5 waves (a,b,c,d,e labeled in magenta on my chart) until July 2014 and then achieved...

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Looking at the decline from the 2011 peak of $49.78, I can see how it could be labeled as an Elliott ABC corrective structure, though this view requires it to be broken down into a 3-3-5 wave sequence (i.e. zigzag, flat, & impulse) -- which technically should only be allowable for the component waves of a "flat" correction. What we actually have here is clearly...

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If this is a triangle as labeled in the chart, this could get ugly very quickly. Estimated thrust would be down to the $12 level if the E wave has peaked at this level. If the "E" wave pushes above the "A", something else is going on.

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I can adjust my outlook for the Shanghai A Shares index when applying the "Kennedy Channeling Technique" (devised by Jeffrey Kennedy of Elliott Wave International). It suggests that the 4th wave of an impulse would fall below the lower trendline of the "Acceleration Channel" before it would be complete. When counting waves (1) and (2) of C(circle) of B as shown...

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As with the other broad U.S. equities indices, the NASDAQ Composite appears to be in the late stage of a terminal ending diagonal pattern which hints at an imminent peak high. In each index (NASDAQ Composite, DJIA, S&P, Russell 2000, etc), the convergence of the upper and lower trendlines of the narrowing pattern, which implies the final peak level of the ending...

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If the triangle unfolds along these lines (inversely similar to the present action in the USD Index), it would imply a thrust toward parity between the Euro and USD in May. The estimated minimum downward post-triangle thrust from the peak of hypothetical wave "E" would be a distance of $0.06561, based on the present shape of the triangle. However, that will need...

AynCzubas

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count 2000-2015

AynCzubas

Potential bullish triangle. Void if index breaks below 96.17. The timing and ending levels of prospective "D" and "E" waves are hypothesized based on equal time cycles among peaks and among lows, and assuming .786 proportions for "D" of "B" and for "E" of "C" (following from the "C" wave's actual .786 proportion of "A"). Based on this, potential for minimum upward...

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Following the bearish triangle in Silver (XAGUSD) which unfolded between 2013 and 2014, the expected downward post-triangle thrust target (as measured by the price distance between the origin of its wave "a" and the left-extended upper triangle trendline) was met nearly perfectly at $13.997 in December 2014 (just short of +-$13.76 target, which also happens to be...

AynCzubas

I notice that the Shanghai Class A Shares Index is just hitting the .618 Fibonacci retracement of the major decline from the 2007 peak to the 2008 low, and this rocketing price movement has culminated in five waves in a textbook impulsive structure that began in June 2013. I wonder if price will now correct downward significantly. Recently, before the level...

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It appears to me that the U.S. equities markets are in the late stage of an ending diagonal pattern (a.k.a. a rising wedge). In Elliott Wave theory, an ending diagonal (ED) is a terminal, 5-wave impulsive pattern which represents the "exhaustion" of a market which has "gone too far and too fast". Though an ED is an impulsive pattern and, as such, unfolds in 5...

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It appears to me that the US Dollar Index has been forming a bearish contracting triangle which started at its peak on March 19th, and based on a rough estimate of expected post-triangle thrust, there would be a subsequent, swift downward move from the present level to the 94.50 area.

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If we look at the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 (S&P denominated by the Consumer Price Index), it indicates that if we disregard the inflationary decay in the domestic purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar from then until now, then the S&P has still not reached a new high since the year 2000. In Elliott Wave terms, the price action of the U.S. equities markets since...