Update to my previous graph with a bit more detail. Still expecting BTC to bottom out around 6.7K, but could visit a bit lower for a moment to 4.2K. Around Sept - Dec 2023, expecting to bottom out and start an uptrend. Stay safe!
All signs and past performance point to a bullish breakout, but this idea is mainly based on sentiment. Everyone and their mother is bullish right now and expecting a massive green dildo any minute now. If Bitcoin reverses here and corrects to the mid 30000s, everyone who hasn't bought will be mortgaging their house, buying the dip like there's no tomorrow...
This is the most likely scenario for BTC and ETH in the next couple of months.
I see two possible paths for bitcoin. The black path is more likely.
This uptrend is very similar to the one in April so I'm looking for ETH to test $200 by mid January before any major downturns.
This uptrend reminds of the one from April where ETH was outperforming BTC in gains. We're starting to see that now where BTC is steadily moving up in this consolidation while ETH already broke out. This uptrend can be even more aggressive because everyone and their mother is shorting, so until that stops, we're going up. Please be careful shorting this market....
I'm looking for a repeat of this triangle pattern and just praying it doesn't properly break down with an equal measured move. Also looking at ETH to form a bottom around 165 - 195 and become RSI oversold on the weekly, which I think should be a good signal for either full reversal or at least a bigger mercy pump across the board.
This diamond pattern is not ideal since the wicks are not lining up as well, but the bodies do, so it's possible we'll get a small pump from here.
ETH really wants to go up, BUT this diamond reversal pattern in ETH longs and the LONG/SHORTS ratio at 2.0 is making me do a double take. I think we have further down to go in this leg before a huge bounce to mid 400s. The market rarely lets the majority win.
Based on severely oversold 1D RSI, I'm predicting a bounce here to .382 fib level from the last rally to around $480 only to return for a last leg down to $167-ish. After that, I'm expecting a few months of side action between 160s and 300s followed by the next bull market.
Here are 4 possible paths for bitcoin based on past fractals.
Just an idea. Targets based on fibs and past fractals.