We do 2735 in New York tomorrow, maybe even a bit more. But here's how we got here from DRAFT 10-10: 1) the shape of price action UNTIL HOURS AGO ... 2) was still a bearish pattern 3) but holding above resistance here can only mean 2735 4) and that comes tomorrow 5) this is that situation where you BUY EVERY SINGLE RETRACE 6) let's get this up first!!
So in moving from bearish setup to a bullish setup, all the trends are turning slowly. This will create a "long sideways to up move" that will last through all of Thursday. So the vertical price action past 2670 will not begin seriously UNTIL ALMOST LONDON OPEN ON FRIDAY, this will run all of Friday and likely through Sunday night in a much bigger sideways to up...
So in the last 2 hours we eliminated anymore draw down, retraces, blah blah. And here's a list of what that means: a) the October high target should be 3070 b) the November high target is 3250 c) the December high target is 3400-3500 d) but that's only half the ultimate rally e) that places ceiling in 2025 at 5300+ f) we will be talking about $150 silver next...
In 10-6, I had warned about 2-way vol saying that price could hit 2665 twice. The front end though didn't break 2556, so I misread the intraday 2-way vol as having basically died. It didn't, it just stalled for a while. So what? So same pattern as 10-7 but pushed forward a bit with more 2-way vol. In chart above, yellows are from 10-7. Gray is adjusted...
This one the best route in my opinion, to drop 80 points bullishly. Why? because it has 40 pt retrace from the bottom built in by Sunday night. I do not love this route because price just broke that dashed line already and that usually means it won't work. But I don't have a close second place. So we have to let 16-20 hours play out and I will draft again.
10/02, 12:27 AM ET, 2655.25 after a dip to 2653. I said in 10-5 that the break of dashed line would kill blue route. And in "JUST RIGHT NOW #002", I said that means 2627 again. Now I know that it means 2593 and 2572. The 2570 line is MAJOR SUPPORT, that also gives us the 115-pt correction we need to continue up. But the question is of course, can we hit 3000...
So this is where the binary leads once price seem to have rejected the bullish route up. While it's not final, because 10-pt reversals are a common thing, the totality of the picture right this minute indicates a move back down to 2624. That's all that could be said right now.
Do or die for this 2717-2597 swing that should fill out the next 3 days. Bulls and bears both - or more precisely price in general - has run out of time to follow through and complete this pattern. This is the last possible combination for this move and also outright favorite vs field at time of publishing. Obviously, price does not HAVE TO do anything....
I don't have time to mesh out new hi-lights, so the dotted line is basically what's going to happen. Let's get this up first and I will add notes to it later.
Where the bold red, black, and blue lines are is the critical window we are at. For this route to work, the black line MUST HOLD FOR NEXT 36 HOURS so price can have a shot at a new high before a 115 pt check down. The problem is that we dropped 60 from the high, so with a tight window to work with, it doesn't seem realistic to get a new high. But without a new...
Since May NFP (delivered early June) after which I called for 3000 by Halloween (10/31), something would get in the way every time I thought the call was right. This time is going to be the same but I am going to stand by this call. First in chart above, this is the super-detailed 3-hour bar route for 3070 by Halloween. I spent most of the weekend on refining...
In June while we were still under 2300, I was forecasting a series called "3000 BY HALLOWEEN". I have gave up on it several times because I didn't trust my work enough, simply bc my short-medium engine never agreed with my medium long engine. I realize now the error in that logic. The short-medium engine can only agree with medium long engine when they are...
This is different from "RIGHT NOW" posts. I never could remove the bias of the long term which always has a problem of being vague. So what's the difference? Just the facts, this time. 1) 2635 should hit next in 9-12 hours. 2) price will close NY UNDER THE CHANNEL 3) that's the mostly likely 4) IF WE GET THAT CLOSE... 5) we will talk sideways for next 24-30...
Ok, so last route didn't work. And I still don't have a route (trend generated pattern). But in my humbled opinion, we have to see 2717-2732 tomorrow. I can break it all down, but I am not interested in writing a novel and you don't want to read my life story. So all I am saying is this: 1) my proprietary trend engine says 2850 by 07/08 2) for this to...
I hate calling it like this because this move never plays out like this. But that's what all trends combined say, 2720 before midnight. And I don't have a good shape for this one.
So probably need to happen. But all dependent on purple line holding for 12 hours. If so, we should clear 2700 by end of NY session. This post continues directly from #145.
I lead this post with the notice that the only strong part of this forecast is the dashed line. This is the averages of all trends combined for the next 80 hours of trading or basically to end of Monday 9/30. Everything starting starting Tuesday needs "re-averaging". The hi-lights here is current "favorite route vs field". This label is not worth its...
This continues directly from #143, but some notes first: 1. so price broke out of that red line 2. and is in position to move up to 2695-2700 3. but we don't really have a confirmed black line 4. because this thing can stall a bit longer 5. and also the first move to 2663 may get sold 6. don't know where that check might be 7. so the bold line in chart above is...