Binary_Forecasting_Service

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - 90 min to go until FOMC. SUMMARY - 18C didn't get lower, which really does annoy me. That seems to mean that 5/12-5/17 window is a lower low 1833. We will deal with that later. DETAILS - Odds now favor low 1849 was the low (for now). 1855 is daily swing low 1920 tomorrow. Then zig zag to another low around 5/13-5/16 (Fri-Mon). All for now.

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - Watching Ferris Bueller's Day-Off Wrigley Field scene on Youtube and whipped this up. Swing and a miss? Let's find out. SUMMARY - This is five different sets of regressions, 40 min bars, 40 hours out. 1825 (maybe 1815), then 1890 Thursday morning. DETAILS - This is just a zoom-in for 18A for Wednesday and Thursday. Short until noon Wednesday...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This will guide you when I can't update from now to 5/30. DIRECTIONS - Upload IRL from my scripts pag. You have to click my emblum (MQP/US flag) and it will take you to my avatar page. Click on scripts, IRL, add to your favorites menu, and then you can add it to your chart. Click settings icon, change ratio to stated ratio in title. For this chart,...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - Volume picking up this move, maybe even higher. SUMMARY/DETAILS - Don't have time to add right now. I just want to get this up to warn of ridiculous spike maybe coming. I wonder if it will have follow through being 1-day ahead of FOMC.

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is first draft of17H I've been talking about in previous posts. SUMMARY - With close under 1900 yesterday, this is next move for 17H. Because of the 60/40 swings, we will take this 10 days at a time. DETAILS - The decision will be Monday morning, but bulls are running out of time to change 1920 ceiling. This means that 17H is 2:1 OR BETTER vs...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is a "more complete but still incomplete" cheat sheet. SUMMARY - Where we left off post 17G (first draft) was handicapping 17G vs 17H (which I have not posted bc it is a dog right now). This is a "more complete" cheat sheet for 17G with contrast vs 17H in theory (orange brushed line). DETAILS - Links to to previous 3 posts 17C-D-E-F-G are below. ...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This combines - and replaces - all work in series 17. SUMMARY - There's enough now for a TEMPORARY bottom. Next move is to 1940-1955 BEFORE FOMC NEXT WED. This will be followed by a nasty move to 1825. It will bounce BUT WILL LIKELY BREAK TO 1780 ON THE SECOND TRY. This is followed by a move to 2000. This much I feel strong about. The last move...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is next move as it stands. SUMMARY - This just keeps going south harder and harder. No slowing down means 1845 some time in 24 hours. DETAILS - That's all I have. I dont know what that means overall. I do know that 2-way extreme vol is a sure thing for the next 15 trading days. So be extremely careful and don't be married to a position. In...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This replaces 17A, B, & C. This is the most accurate so far. Needs more work. SUMMARY - Maybe it's the Treasury and the FED withdrawing liquidity. Whatever the reasons are, this is now 51% vs field and rising quickly. DETAILS - Short on time, see links for previous 4 posts for background. There are 2 routes now, both lead to 1740 in mid to late May....

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - This is a supplement for 17D. SUMMARY - This is the alternate outcome to 17D. DETAILS - Right now we are still on 17D, links from A to E are below. This is a big under dog right now. But considering recent price action, you need to be aware of its potential. NOTES - 1. odds of this right now, let's say 10% or less 2. but if gold hits 1945-1955 in...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This replaces 17B. SUMMARY - There is no sign of life right now. It's all momentum with 1912 ceiling through 5/04. With decisive break to be on 05/04. DETAILS - Links to 17A and 17B are below. As of right now, this is 45% vs field, or favorite but less than 50%. Basically, it's like a vortex down. In order to change this outcome, price must break...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - Replacement for 17A. First draft. SUMMARY - I have reason to believe 1820s should be the floor. We are should get a May rally anyway, just from 1820 to 2000, maybe 2070. DETAILS - I've linked 16H and 17A. BY THE WAY - I don't have time to mesh out all detailing like I did for 16H, so it's not meant to be a "CHEAT SHEET", just overall guide.

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - So 16 looks really dead right now. This is incoming for this week. SUMMARY - Price action since Friday afternoon is showing major weakness coming. Bulls have only hours left to stop this tail to 1870s (and then some next week too?). DETAILS - Please read 16H for background.

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - I have some confidence it should play like this leading into 4/29 or 5/3 entry. SUMMARY - Looking more and more like 16A. This is now 51% vs all other routes combined while "sideways until August" is still 1 in 3. DETAILS - Links for 16A through 16G are below for background.

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - So this is now the favorite, but it's less than 45%. SUMMARY - This shifted back to 16B. Link below with 16E. DETAILS - First, this is now the most likely move. High is now capped at 2200 or less. This is 55%+ if we hit first box, 67%+ if we hit third box, and 75-80% if we bounce over 4th box PRIOR TO MAY FOMC AND NFP. Those dates are 5/4 and 5/6...

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - This worked once for me. Probably won't work this time because it worked the last time. Hence, a test. SUMMARY - This is a supplement for series 16 posts, that's all.

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - IF it moves for 1990 in March - in the next 5 trading days - then in should look more like this vs 16E. SUMMARY - This is supplement for 16E, a part of series 16 posts. DETAILS - All details in 16E, highly recommended for grasp of forecast. All links below for 16 A-B-C-D-E. Odds on May breakout now better than 1 in 3. HIt 1990 twice before APRIL 6...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is a continuation of posts in series 16. This replaces 16 A & B. While this what makes the most sense from a "total theory" point of view, it's a only at best 30% vs all other outcomes at this hour. Then again, the "sideways to July/August is roughly the same odds. I'm not sure this should even be favored. The main reason for my choosing this vs...