This is an update for #003-3.3. 1. In this chart the light gray line was the line I drew in #003-3.3. 2. The black one here is the "reasonable one" I am forced to favor because of short term regression restriction on silver price through June 12th. 3. If some how we are still at 26 area by early June, this a situation where I'd buy SEP 15 calls. NOTES: 1....
Don't have a lot to add now, but obviously at 1:1, silver is the outstanding 6-mo trade and 2021's Trade of the Summer.
Didn't work last post bc (??) so here's a different one, but more out look past 4/12.
For whatever reasons, I can't publish the other drafts I completed so I am testing this one.
1) SILVER MOVES TO 24.25, 2) S&P 500 MOVES TO 3666 AND, 3) GOLD MOVES TO 1670 (I STILL LEAN 1627). Im going to nail March 2021 as if she is married and we used to date and she still got that banging body. I have a lot I want to share and zero time to share it. So that's all for now.
These are just thoughts off the top of my head: 1) If silver is stronger than gold (and IT IS RELATIVELY SPEAKING), and silver has not bottomed, then gold PROBABLY HASN'T EITHER. 2) EW counts are still missing a wave 5 of C in both gold and silver. 3) US equities are entering a zone of weakness for several weeks, and historically speaking, gold tends to tank...
So what now? We're entering a tricky zone, so I will stick with simple targets before we say gold has bottomed with confidence. That said, here is what I see with silver with relatively high confidence.
THESE TRADE RECO "FOR THE RECORD". I will post records from time to time. Anyway, what also makes me think gold won't hold 1627 and eventually bottom circa 1540-1550 like this: ... is that S&P 500 LOOKS TERRIBLE RIGHT NOW. SO terrible that I am opening a trade reco. This thing will likely have 2 legs and the second leg go to 3400. This is just trading the...
I WANT TO POST A SILVER UPDATE, BUT I HAVE 0 TIME FOR DETAILING SO: This is a very generic idea of what is coming for silver. There is no pre-work, post-check blah blah or anything. Take this with a jar of kosher salt. Basically we are going down, and there should be two big legs, #3 and #5. The problem here is that I am not sure that will be it, especially...
First, some clarifications: 1. If you have been following, I intended to start 3-3 when a bottom looks likely. RIGHT NOW, IT IS TERRIBLE. So for numbering these ideas, I will continue with 3-2.3 and etc... until a bottom is likely. 2. This combined price-volume wave analysis method has NAILED TURN FOR TURN SINCE 02-22. 3. If you follow my posts, you should...
In development of my PRS wave theory, there is something nagging me about the wave decompression of the rally that topped August 7, 2020. While this is not what I expect to happen next, it resolves all my quant concerns before completely discounting a bearish thesis . This type of price action is ALWAYS event-driven. A possible trigger that has appeared...
Busy af right now, so just getting this up. Will write more if I have time. But basically, various measurements say that bottom is in and if it isn't, it's REALLY CLOSE. That said, nothing exciting until 2nd week of April.
This is early draft for #003 trade idea. Notes: 1. For all intents and purposes, if your holding period is 6 MONTHS OR LONGER, buying NOW is not a terrible idea. Maybe even more true if you intend to hold to February 2025. 2. That said, the ever-annoying "one more low" risk is still present and may not clear until we are through FOMC on 03/17/2021, April NFP...
This is the zoom in for #002-6 (SILVER MOMENTUM) REPOST.
(changed chart setting) This is a sub-idea for the main on-going gold short (#002 GOLD IN DANGER). Silver is NOT ready to break out. Looks like back to 24.25. Will post zoom in on volume picture in seconds.
Please read #002-1 to #002-4 for reference first. I am strapped for time, but will try my best to show how organic price/volume waves fits best with Elliot Waves for forecasting.
Chart above is my general take on the wave count. I will add charts below so you can see my thinking process.
Essentially speaking, can't find an ounce of volume strength anywhere, but why 1680/1630? First, look to the left: Consider wave count: Long term implicatons? As of right now, it is implying that this bull will continue to early 2025. I will try to post a compare/contrast vs 1978.