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Shanghai Comp SHCOMP ~ Bearish H&S Update (Feb 2024)
000001
, 1W
Short
000001: Shanghai Comp SHCOMP ~ Bearish H&S Update (Feb 2024)
Updated 

SSE:000001 chart mapping/analysis. Been a while since I've published any charts on TradingView - process is a pain in the a$$ tbh & procrastination crept in while lacking TA-edge on markets + other commitments.. That said, noticed Shanghai Comp chart still notching views given current environment so thought I'd give an update. Initial TA thesis hasn't changed...

Shanghai Composite SHCOMP ~ Bearish H&S Formation (Dec 2023)
000001
, 1W
Short
000001: Shanghai Composite SHCOMP ~ Bearish H&S Formation (Dec 2023)
Updated 

SSE:000001 chart mapping/analysis. Bearish H&S formation on weekly chart. Price action already broken below multi-decade trend-line. Pattern follows through = -29% measured move down to 78.6% Fib / retrace to 2005 breakout / gap fill (weekly) confluence zone (green box).

US500 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)
US500
, 240
US500: US500 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)
Updated 

CAPITALCOM:US500 chart mapping/analysis. S&P 500 holding in choppy consolidation after November ripper rally. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = break above ~4610 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ascending trend-line (green) / red box confluence zone. Bullish extension target(s) = re-test ~4820 previous/historical...

US100 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)
US100
, 240
US100: US100 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)
Updated 

CAPITALCOM:US100 chart mapping/analysis. Nasdaq 100 consolidating into key macro economic news, much like S&P 500. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = break above ~16167 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ascending trend-line (green) / red box confluence zone. Bullish extension target(s) = new historical highs...

AU200 ~ Commodities or Follow US Markets? ASX Wants Both! (2H)
AU200
, 120
AU200: AU200 ~ Commodities or Follow US Markets? ASX Wants Both! (2H)
Updated 

CAPITALCOM:AU200 chart mapping/analysis. ASX grinding higher into EOY, benefitting from relative strength in global commodities & precious metals. Trading scenarios into EOY: Continued commodity strength + US bullish momentum = rally into 23.6% Fib / ascending trend-line (light blue dotted) confluence zone. Rally would coincide with re-test of bearish...

US10Y ~ Bullish Downtrend Reversal (2H)
US10Y
, 120
Long
US10Y: US10Y ~ Bullish Downtrend Reversal (2H)
Updated 

TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10yr bond yields finding bullish reversal off lower range of descending parallel channel (white) - further momentum pending upcoming 10yr auction + US economic data. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = continued momentum to break above descending trend-line (white dashed) towards 38.2%...

DXY/USD ~ Bullish Reversal / Inverse H&S (1H)
DXY
, 60
DXY: DXY/USD ~ Bullish Reversal / Inverse H&S (1H)
Updated 

TVC:DXY chart mapping/analysis. Bullish inverse H&S identified on lower timeframe charts, pending breakout confirmation. Trading scenarios into EOY: Inverse H&S breakout = extrapolated move into 23.6% Fib / ~106 horizontal line (yellow dashed) / upper range of descending parallel channel (light blue) confluence zone. Breakout failure = re-test 50% Fib aka...

AUDUSD ~ Risk Off Sentiment: Stuck In Limbo into EOY (2H)
AUDUSD
, 120
AUDUSD: AUDUSD ~ Risk Off Sentiment: Stuck In Limbo into EOY (2H)
Updated 

FX_IDC:AUDUSD chart mapping/analysis. Aussie Dollarydoos struggling to regain bullish momentum after early December peak. Trading scenarios into EOY: Preliminary trading range = ~66.20 to ~65.25. Break above ~66.20 = regain bullish momentum. Bullish target(s) = re-test descending trend-line (white dotted) / upper range of ascending parallel channel...

US Oil ~ Macro Headwinds > Market Intervention (1H)
USOIL
, 60
Short
USOIL: US Oil ~ Macro Headwinds > Market Intervention (1H)
Updated 

TVC:USOIL chart mapping/analysis. Crude Oil reversing all gains manufactured by OPEC+ production cuts & Middle-East conflict premiums, while threatening to further capitulate due to growing macro headwinds leading into 2024.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish resurgence = rally above horizontal resistance line (yellow dashed) into 23.6% Fib & upper range...

Gold/XAUUSD ~ Blow-off Top Keeps On...Blowing? (2H)
GOLD
, 120
Short
GOLD: Gold/XAUUSD ~ Blow-off Top Keeps On...Blowing? (2H)
Updated 

TVC:GOLD chart mapping/analysis. Gold's massive (algo-triggered) blow-off top killed the bullish momentum - pending further selling pressure if DXY/bond yields decide to rally into end of the year.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Selling pressure towards 50% Fib initial support zone. Bearish EOY capitulation target = Golden Pocket support zone. Expect any...

US10Y vs. SPX ~ Inverse Correlation/Ratio Indicator (Dec 2023)
US10Y
, D
US10Y: US10Y vs. SPX ~ Inverse Correlation/Ratio Indicator (Dec 2023)
Updated 

TVC:US10Y versus SP:SPX inverse correlation analysis. Work in progress indicator for anticipating market trend switches. Notes: Emerging correlation identified within US10Y/SPX ratio. Spikes in ratio (orange vertical line, dotted) aka bond yield ROC/volatility = higher probability of risk-off sentiment (ie big tech & growth stock rotation). Correlation...

Copper ~ Help Me Obi-China, You're My Only Hope (2H)
COPPER
, 120
COPPER: Copper ~ Help Me Obi-China, You're My Only Hope (2H)
Updated 

CAPITALCOM:COPPER chart mapping/analysis. Copper - off its October lows, yet still contending with global macro headwinds & China's difficulty in shaking off its deflationary economic funk.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Prelim trading range = ~3.93 - ~3.73. Under bearish pressure from 38.2% Fib rejections. Bullish reaction to China/macro economic news =...

Bitcoin BTCUSD ~ Nov-Dec Snapshot (Daily Chart)
BTCUSD
, 1D
BTCUSD: Bitcoin BTCUSD ~ Nov-Dec Snapshot (Daily Chart)
Updated 

COINBASE:BTCUSD chart mapping/analysis for last week of November. TBC further details/write-up via ideas section.

S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) ~ December 4H Swing
RSP
, 240
RSP: S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) ~ December 4H Swing

AMEX:RSP chart analysis/mapping. RSP ETF rally representing S&P market breadth - offering legitimacy to overall market strength & further indication of healthy stock rotation, instead of "Magnificent 7" concentration. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / descending trend-line (light blue) confluence zone. Continuation...

Dow Jones ETF (DIA) ~ December 4H Swing
DIA
, 240
DIA: Dow Jones ETF (DIA) ~ December 4H Swing

AMEX:DIA chart anaylsis/mapping. DIA ETF on relative strength compared to recent SPY/QQQ performance, indicating potential market rotation. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib. Shallow pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / ascending trend-line (green dashed) / gap fill confluence zone. Shallow pullback #2 = gap fills /...

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) ~ December 4H Swing
IWM
, 240
IWM: Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) ~ December 4H Swing

AMEX:IWM chart analysis/mapping. IWM ETF rally off late October lows on market expectations of the end to Fed rate hikes. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = multiple gap fill / 38.2% Fib / upper range of parallel channel (green) confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = 23.6% Fib / horizontal line (light blue dashed) confluence zone. Deeper pullback...

Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) ~ December 4H Swing
QQQ
, 240
QQQ: Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) ~ December 4H Swing

NASDAQ:QQQ chart analysis/mapping. QQQ ETF in consolidation phase after strong November rally. Trading scenarios: Further consolidation = descending trend-line (light blue) / multiple EMA confluence zone. Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib / ascending trend-line (green) confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = 78.6% Fib / 200MA confluence zone. ...

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ~ December 4H Swing
SPY
, 240
SPY: S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ~ December 4H Swing

AMEX:SPY chart analysis/mapping. Spy ETF strong rally throughout November - is it due for a pullback in December? Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = gap fill / ascending trend-line (white) confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone. Shallow pullback #2 = Golden Pocket / descending...

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