Brodie

Brodie

BTC PRICE %Δ EXTENSION FROM 20W SMA ANALYSIS Similar to previous Analysis looking at 'Price %Change Extensions' from moving averages (see links below), we take a look at the respective relationship BTC has held with the 20W SMA over its existence. HISTORICAL BEHAVIOUR Observable in Prior cycles BTC has topped and bottom out at High Points and Low Point of this...

Brodie

A quick chart to outline BTCs possible next move up if bulls take control again as we enter in March out of the current consolidation zone. What we would be looking for in this scenario is a retest and hold of the below 20W SMA | 21W EMA, sweeping our prior low of the current range. See daily charts below. Daily Chart(S) Showing 1.618 Over Extension ...

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A quick post to capture the current observed relationship with BTC cycles and the 200W SMA. When the Horizontal Prine Line (Green) from prior Cycle ATH meets with the 200W SMA (Aqua), this has traditionally approximated the next BTC heigh in the following cycle. Using this approach, we have estimated where this in time could occur for the current cycle. Will...

Brodie

IF PERFECT CYCLE - ATM TARGET ZONE For this post (just for fun) if BTC is allowed to run to it historic tends this cycle, then I have marketed the projected 'ATH Target Zone', based on the current state of my price modelling, cycle mapping, oscillators, indicators and technical analysis tends. Weekly RSI - CURRENT ANALYSIS While the weekly RSI bearish...

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For additional clarity, this companion post is intended to be read in-conjunction with the weekly analysis post below:

Brodie

Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period... BULL MARKET PULL BACKS Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new...

Brodie

In this post we will look at some of the long-term trends identified with the tracking of the CTI indicator (Red and Green Moving averages in the price chart), and what we can learn from the observed behaviors over Cycle 1 / 2 / 3 and possible implications for Cycle 4. INDICATOR RECAP The CTI indicator attempts to model the cycle top based on observed historic...

Brodie

A quick post to cover Bitcoins Cycles with respect to the Monthly RSI. We can see based on the monthly close RSI values, a descending trend where each consecutive peak for consecutive bitcoins cycles have reduced in magnitude (i.e. a lower low RSI value coinciding with the trend reversal points. This trend is also evident with monthly RSI low values. Using trend...

Brodie

Quick post looking at how BTC has historically respected 'log trend lines and how they may affect BTC future price action. Will be fun to see how this model holds up over cycle 4 and future BTC cycles (view on a computer and use the future price action tools to see what happened past todays post date).

Brodie

A throwback update to some of our earlier posts looking at long trend lines and extending them from points of interest... use the Interactve chart and future price movements to see how successful / useful they have been in identifying potential points of interest for support and resistance. Currently BTC is interacting with long trend lines developed from...

Brodie

For those following along with this indicator, the current price action volatility has accelerated price to some interesting historic points. As discussed in prior post above, historically BTC has followed a trend of dropping to the lower SMA extension coloured line with each cycle with interesting multiple hits in establishing our 2021 technical cycle top....

Brodie

Quick post to demonstrate indicator looking at DCA positions to enter into the bear market and out of the bull market zones. Below 'Cheat Sheet' summary developed based on prior cycle mapping posts and historic reviews of Cycle 1 to 3 for BTC. Brief structure * Bull Market Start: 40W post Halving * Bull Market End: 80W post Halving * Bear Market (Start DCA...

Brodie

This post is intended to be used with an earlier interactive companion post, crated to observe BTC's interactions in prior cycles so we can take learnings into cycle 4 with respect to BTC's under and over extensions of the calculated Realised Price. A quick refresher - What is Realized Price? Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com "Bitcoin Realized Price is the value...

Brodie

This post is intended as an interactive companion post with a 'to follow' detail post for historic analysis. I want to explore the relationship with BTC and Realised Price, and historically where we have seen cycle over bought and sold regions based on extensions from calculated realised price values. What is Realized Price? Source:...

Brodie

Quick Update: Cycle 4 BTC price action has hit our first measured move (log scale) which coincides with the 1.272 Fib Extension using the prior cycles technical top and cycle bottom. This was our first point of interest as BTC approaches our Early Sell Zone region....

Brodie

As promised, post showing the 'MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC' indicator on the daily time frame for you to explore. This post shows BTC's behavior to historic over / under extension to price and historic levels of volatile in prior cycles on the Daily chart. Feel free to interact with the chart on a computer via this post (phone apps only show the static image with...

Brodie

Hi All. Since my prior post on this indicator, I have been asked to show this indicator with risk level colours against price. I initially built this functionality in originally (during the development of this indicator) a number of different ways but ended up simplifying to using pine scrip 'bar color' function. This post shows BTC's behavior to historic over /...

Brodie

The MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC is an excellent custom indicator developed to help investors to DCA in and out of underbought / overheated periods of the market. Applying principals with BTC's CYCLE 4 current progress if BTC remains within historic trends then this also supports the time periods discuss in the below post.