Brodie

Brodie

The MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC is an excellent custom indicator developed to help investors to DCA in and out of underbought / overheated periods of the market. Applying principals with BTC's CYCLE 4 current progress if BTC remains within historic trends then this also supports the time periods discuss in the below post.

Brodie

In accordance with historical behavior, BTCs ATH each cycle has corresponded with the next SMA line down (following a multiplication factor of the Fibonacci sequence). As observed in CYCLE 3, BTC tag the BLUE line putting in the Technical High of this cycle meaning CYCLE 4 should tag the Yellow line if History is to repeat. The Second and ATH top of CYCLE 3 tag...

Brodie

Assuming we reach the Light Red line again of the BUY / SELL indicator, as per our analysis in the below post this could suggest an ATH for CYCLE 4 could land in the 117K to 157K region. It is noted while it was the second top in CYCLE 3; our purple line met / crossed but did not exceed past our orange signal line materially (see red arrow above). This marked...

Brodie

Assuming the CTI (Cycle Top Indicator) again holds true in estimating in real time the potential top for Cycle 4 ATH, as per our analysis in the below post we would be expecting a very parabolic period ahead to land in the discussed cycle ATH zones.

Brodie

As we now have confirmation of the election result and following our assumption this will lead to seasonal trends of a Santa rally for stocks and bonds as we close out the year, it is now worth mapping this scenario in more detail. This post looks at CYCLE 4 and maps where this cycle All Time High (ATH) may reach and when, base on historic Indicator behavior /...

Brodie

Mapping of Cycle 4 using Indicators / Risk Metric / Price Action / Measured Moves / Fib Extensions & Historical Cycle Lengths. Post is intended to be used as an exploratory tool for a future post.

Brodie Updated 

UNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOK This post I intend to explore with you the cyclic relationship we can observer between: 1) US Unemployment Rate (BLUE), 2) 21D SMA (Orange) based in unemployment data, and 3) Resultant Recessions (Gray Bars) Historically, the general play book / sequence of events suggest once we break the 21 Day SMA (orange line), it...

Brodie

As requested (through a few personal DMs), I have created this companion post to allow for easy exploration of this relationship with respect to the S&P500. As always your thoughts and inputs are appreciated. Enjoy!

Brodie

We are still waiting for our weekly close to come in, however thought I would share a quick idea looking at our current price action from a cycles perspective. Speculating the current move from January 2023 to now as the swing top of the '2024 Bear Market Recovery Rally', and comparing the 2018-2019 bear bull cycle to our current (using fib retracement). Key...

Brodie

Chart shows S&P500 (chart - LOG) divided by the M2 Money Supply (Orange - LOG). M2 at this stage appears it may 'need' to travers back to the bottom of it's mean progression line channel (Orange / Green - dashed) before supplying liquidity back to the market for more S&P500 increases. What would case the S&P500 to revisit the GREEN demand zone: M2 Money Supply...

Brodie

Chart shows BTC (chart - LOG) divided by the FED M1 Money Supply (Orange LOG). M2 at this stage appears it may 'need' to travers back to it's mean progression line (Orange - dashed) before supplying liquidity back to the market for more BTC increases. This narrative time wise works with the idea we may have our sluggish Q3 and Q4 (into BTC halving year) before we...

Brodie

Chart shows BTC (chart - LOG) divided by the FED M1 Money Supply (Orange linear). Will a recession result in increases in M1 and BTC falling that will cause us to revisit the DEMAND zone in Green, similar to April 2020? * Grey Bars show US Recessions.

Brodie

Chart shows S&P500 (chart - LOG) divided by the FED M1 Money Supply (Orange - LOG). An overall Reduction in Money Supply M1 with respect to the S&P500 bring us back into the mid point region of the supply and demand zones or are we Destined to continue below the Demand Zone (increase in M1 and continued decline in the S&P500)? * Grey Bars show US Recessions.

Brodie

Chart shows BTC (chart - LOG) divided by the FED M1 Money Supply (Orange linear). Will a recessions result in increases in M1 and BTC falling that will cause us to revisit the DEMAND zone in Green, similar to April 2020?

Brodie

Using Price Action fundamentals only, see targets for possible 'Worst Case' scenarios for 2022 Bear Market using 'Measured Moves / FIBs / W&D OBs'. Chart shown in Weekly Time Frame - zoom out and in to look about.

Brodie

Using Price Action fundamentals only, see targets for possible 'Worst Case' scenarios for 2022 Bear Market using 'Measured Moves / FIBs / W&D OBs'. Chart shown in Weekly Time Frame - zoom in to look about.

Brodie

For an idea of what is in the realms of possibility with other bear markets for BTC (ignoring the current macro landscape); this post overlays the 2014 and 2018 bear markets over the current 2022 Bear Market PA. Do we have more to drop? Have we already put in our cycle bottom and are in our current cycle bottom accumulation trading range?

Brodie

The topping phase of BTC during the 2020 / 2021 bull run is A Typical of Wyckoff Distribution characteristics (see below link for more information). Wyckoff Distribution: school.stockcharts.com Following this price fractal suggests we are firmly in Phase E. The only question that is remaining is are we in our last consolidation / bear rally before one last...