CHTradingGroup

CHTradingGroup Updated  May 6, 2020

My previous posts assumed that a double zigzag Elliott Wave structure for Wave 2 had come to a conclusion because of how nicely a head and shoulders pattern had appeared. My expectation was that the market would then begin to roll over and things looked promising into yesterday's close. However, we are now looking to gap up, yet again, and so if it charges even...

CHTradingGroup May 6, 2020

ES Futures: rising wedge collapsed into a bear flag, which collapsed into a bear flag, which collapsed into a bear flag... This is, as you can expect, very, very bearish.

CHTradingGroup May 6, 2020

Finally, some suggestions about where we're going. I believe this is wave 3 of the large 5 wave bear market structure. I am not an experienced Elliottician, but I use what I do know of it as a general guide to get me going in the right direction. I am more experienced with traditional technical analysis. My educational background is in the history of philosophy,...

CHTradingGroup May 6, 2020

And, zooming in once more to take a closer look at the right shoulder, we see that within that shoulder, the ES futures formed a rising wedge beginning last night and going on in to today's trading. During the day, we broke from that structure, and, just to exasperate the bears even more, proceeded to test the bottom of that structure for what felt like an...

CHTradingGroup May 6, 2020

Zooming in a bit, we can see that the bear flag conclusion took the form of a head and shoulders pattern, a bearish technical pattern. Notice the right shoulder, which, if the market continues to go down from this point, we can then assume has completed. It really does look textbook at this point, having reached the same height in both shoulders before breaking...

CHTradingGroup May 6, 2020

I'll write up my thoughts in 4 parts, starting with a larger view of the market, and then zooming in. I think we have a brief moment of clarity now before things will inevitably become cloudy once again at some point. The broad view is that after the February and March crash, we entered a very grave bear market, one that could very well turn out to be an...

CHTradingGroup Updated  May 5, 2020

I am expecting wave 3 (of 1 of 3) of the bear market to begin. Big wave 1 was the crash, 2 was the rally, and 3 started the other day, I believe. The initial move down was wave 1 of 1 that wave 3, and the rally from yesterday to today is wave 2 of 1 of 3, I believe. For the wave 2 correction to complete, I am looking for it to retrace to between 38.2% and 50% of...

CHTradingGroup May 5, 2020

As noted a day or so ago, a head and shoulders pattern may be developing on the S&P futures. It continues to do so tonight. If the rally from today and tonight extends into tomorrow and runs out of steam around 2880, the right shoulder may be topping. I expect a very significant pullback from there as I believe it will indicate the end of the bear market rally....

CHTradingGroup May 5, 2020

S&P Futures are forming a rising wedge tonight after the cash close. This is a bearish pattern. Let's see if the little upside we saw today reverses tonight. Have a good night!

CHTradingGroup May 4, 2020

The ES Futures may be forming a head and shoulders pattern. Look for a gap down on Monday and then a potential small rally back to the left shoulder highs or slightly lower. If this pattern does emerge, it is a bearish signal.

CHTradingGroup Apr 29, 2020

Despite today's ongoing rally , the S&P futures continue to backtest the bearish rising wedge formed from the March lows. One would expect, after falling from the wedge, that the markets would begin to decline. I still believe this is the case, given the fundamentals faced by the economy at this time. However, if the pattern does not break down soon, then I will...

CHTradingGroup Apr 28, 2020

Once again, the S&P Futures have backtested the bearish rising wedge that began at the March lows. We remain bearish until the bottom channel of the wedge is retaken. Until that happens, we expect the markets to fall to new lows given the risks faced by the markets at this time.

CHTradingGroup Apr 24, 2020

JPMorgan may be breaking out below a bear flag formed from the March lows as we speak.

CHTradingGroup Apr 23, 2020

As noted at the last retest, the S&P e-mini futures have backtested and failed to retake the bottom channel of the rising bearish wedge that developed from the March lows. Some day this century or in the next, we coiuld see a rapid fall in the market.

CHTradingGroup Apr 22, 2020

The S&P futures, after having broken down out of the bearish rising wedge the other day, went up and almost perfectly tagged the bottom of the wedge towards the close of the cash market today. We're getting close to a complete breakdown.

CHTradingGroup Apr 17, 2020

The SPY is showing continued bearish divergence on the RSI. During the last four highs made by SPY, the RSI has reached lower highs on the hourly chart. This bear market rally is likely running out of steam.