Cherry94

Cherry94 Updated 

Mostly a technical setup; general risk-on sentiment; bullish breakout on ETHBTC

Cherry94

+ US Data Miss (ISM Serv.) ~+ Geopolitics (War) ~+ US Fiscal issues ~+ Aluminum tariffs

Cherry94 Updated 

~+Aluminum tariffs ~+US Fiscal issues ~+ Geopolitical tensions (war)

Cherry94

~+ US downgrade by Moody's a few days ago + COT ~+ Fed is cautious ~+ Ec.data

Cherry94 Updated 

~+ RBA rhetoric (slightly dovish) + Seasonals *approaching the mean of the regression trend

Cherry94

~+ post US-China trade talks positive sentiment ~+ Latest US ec. data (Claims, Philly Fed, Retail, PPI down) *Reentry

Cherry94 Updated 

~+ JP GDP Miss ~+ Moody's downgrade ~+ BOJ's cautious stance amid tariff uncertainties + COT + Seasonals

Cherry94

~+ post US-China trade talks positive sentiment ~+ Latest US ec. data (Claims, Philly Fed, Retail. PPI down)

Cherry94

~+ post US-China trade talks positive sentiment ~+ recent US ec. data + COT

Cherry94

~+ post US-China talks, positive sentiment *DAX didn't hold gains vs US indices on the reaction of the trade talks - should've been more cautious.

Cherry94

~- At Friday's closing, there was a slight positive sentiment in expectations of positive outcomes from the upcoming Trump-China trade talks in Geneva over the weekend.

Cherry94

~+ The sentiment is turning around - tariffs de-escalation talks, trade deals with major trading partners + COT + BOJ Bearish forward guidance ~+ US ec. news failure - USD shortly dipped on bearish Jobless Claims but quickly recovered and shot up on ISM PMI Mfg ~- USDJPY seasonals

Cherry94

+Seasonality (until the end of April) +COT ~- Latest bad UK PMIs (although JP CPI Miss as well)

Cherry94

+US Leading Index Miss +COT Bearish ~+General gloomy sentiment about tariffs, Fed's independence & trade talks with Japan ~-thin volumes after holidays

Cherry94 Updated 

+ Trump paused tariffs for 90 days (ex.China) ~+ XAU is overextended against XAG

Cherry94 Updated 

~+ Tariffs impact uncertainty + Seasonals ~- * Although gold tends to follow risk assets once the expected risk is realized. In this case, specific tariffs were announced, and further impact could be envisioned.

Cherry94 Updated 

+ ISM Services Miss + Reciprocal Tariffs + COT - Seasonals

Cherry94 Updated 

+ Fresh US data (PCE and infl.exp. Up, Consumer exp. Down) ~+ Tariffs uncertainty (retaliation?) ~+ COT ~+ Timing (end of the week, month) ~- Seasonals