Cherry94

Cherry94

+Potential tariffs are more threatening to EU than NZ. +Seasonality +Decent chance of not cutting by RBNZ -A lot of bad news already priced in for the euro

Cherry94

+euro is expected to be more affected by tariffs than the pound +seasonality -The euro has already priced in many bad news *mixed data

Cherry94

+25% Tariffs implemented -USD is overbought (COT) -Weak follow-through -Risk of further agreements *took smaller size (0.2%)

Cherry94

+Colombia repatriation +Bad CN data +Seasonality -USD COT Bearish -Monday Hold until 30.01.2025

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment HK50: - Weak recent Chinese data - Stimulus hasn't met investors high expectations USD: - Strong data - Fed signals a likely slowdown in the pace of rate cuts Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: DMA(100) Stop loss: 1% Position size: 0.5 of the normal...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment CN50A: - PBOC has officially ramped up support for the stock market, relending facility launched - Couldn't hold lower after bad Industrial profits release USD: - De-escalation sentiment after the attack on Iran Technical & Other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Sideways Long-term:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment GBP: - The pair didn't hold lower after the negative CPI this week - Strong Retail Sales today - There's still a miniscule chance that the rate will be unchanged - Biggest carry currency USD: - Shrugged off good US data yesterday Technical & Other - Entered 3m after the Retail Sales release - Failed breakout below 1.3 on D Setup:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: - Recent economic data has been bullish, driving the euro up GBP: - Raised taxes - bearish in the short-term for the pound - Recent bearish economic data Technical & Other Expectations - after such a runup, the technical area is good for taking profits, especially before NFP on the same day and the US Elections next week. ...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment HK50: - Swap program aimed at supporting the stock market - NBS PMIs Beat USD: - Risks: Upcoming Elections Technical & Other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 15m Medium-term: Range Long-term: Up Min target: Local high Stop loss: 0.68% Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: - COT - Recent ec.data (GDP, CPI) USD: - Risks: pre-election swings Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: 168.0 Stop loss: 0.22% Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment GBP: - COT - S&P PMI Miss USD: - Ec. data (esp. JOLTS) - Seasonality, pre-elections Technical & Other Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Range Min target: Local low Stop loss: 0.18% Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: - Some recent positive economic data CAD: - 0.5 Cut should spur some short-term bearishness Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 1m (right after the BoC 0.5 cut announcement) Medium-term: Range Long-term: Range Min target: Local high Stop loss: 0.25% Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit.

Cherry94

Fundamentals & Sentiment AUD: - Recent economic data is good - Bullish market internals JPY: - Bad PMI data - October is negative seasonally for JPY Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Sideways Long-term: Sideways Min target: 103.0, mirror level Stop loss: 0.49% Position size: 0.8R

Cherry94

Fundamentals & Sentiment CNH: - PBoC cut the rate; other stimulus measures USD: - Recent strong data - Cautious, "balanced" approach by the Fed Technical & Other - Chinese equities struggle to keep the upward momentum Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Down Min target: Local high Stop loss: 0.28% Position...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment HK50: - PBoC kicked off funding schemes and urged swift adoption of policies to support capital markets - PBoC Rate Cut USD: - Risks: geopolitics Technical & Other Setup: S(M) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 5m Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: Local highs, harmonics Stop loss: 1.28% Position size: 0.5R

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment GBP: - The pair didn't hold lower after the negative CPI this week - Strong Retail Sales today - There's still a miniscule chance that the rate will be unchanged - Biggest carry currency USD: - Shrugged off good US data yesterday Technical & Other - Entered 3m after the Retail Sales release - Failed breakout below 1.3...

Cherry94 Updated 

USD: - Undervalued according to many market internals - CPI Beat - Monster jobs data (NFP, Unemployment, etc.) - USD held well on Fri-Mon so the last mixed data (Initial claims beat - dovish) was shrugged off. CHF: - Generally, the franc is too expensive for SNB's liking - Bearish Internals Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment NZD: - Data: CPI along with prior recent data are dovish - RBNZ: "there's a scope for further cuts..." USD: - Fed: Cautious approach to cuts - Data: mixed - Bullish CFTC Technical & Other - Sell limit Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Range Min target: Next support...