ChrisPulver

26:22

ChrisPulver

It's that time of year again. The final trading weeks of 2024 and the technical "Santa Rally" (trading through Christmas and New Year's) is upon us. Unfortunately the FED put a bit of a cap on the extremely optimistic and borderline euphoria that was bubbling over going into the FOMC Rate Decision. 100 bps of cuts, yet the US10Y (10 year yield) has virtually...

26:06

ChrisPulver

Limited trading for the remainder of the week in the US with Thanksgiving We've notched a few all-time highs in the US markets but without any major surges. Low volume and light activity have been pretty apparent as the post election rips have settled down somewhat. US data still in line before FOMC on Dec 18. Current FED Watch Tool showing a 64% probability of...

30:14

ChrisPulver

NVDA beat top and bottom estimates after market today. Due to it's 3.58T market cap, let's see where the SPY/QQQ are trading Thursday post NVDA earnings. MSTR making headlines as one of the top traded stocks (behind NVDA) and it continues to surge and even outperform BTC in a big way - great gains but be careful of the rocket ship runs because they tend to end...

30:48

ChrisPulver

It's Election Eve and I thought it was important to share how I'm positioning for the US Election and all of the craziness that it may bring. Maybe it's all hype, maybe it's the truest test of US Democracy, maybe it's the beginning of the end. I'm not going to opine on political preference. I'm simply going to focus on current levels and what's in play. Pullback...

18:01

ChrisPulver

797 stocks reporting earnings next week Notables include GOOGL LLY CAT META MSFT COIN AMZN AAPL XOM CVX MA V $15 trillion in market cap at play as the US markets are still very close to all-time highs with a melty-uppy vibe. I'm cautiously bullish and could certainly see the highs get blown off with strong earnings momentum dominating the sentiment. I could also...

23:28

ChrisPulver

S&P has failed to make all-time highs Dow has failed to make all-time highs Nasdaq has failed to make any new highs Russell has failed to make any new highs Oil rips on Middle East escalations Dollar rips on technical support and bear trap play. Dollar is a big component to the stock markets edging higher for the remainder of the year (e.g. dollar strong =...

14:05

ChrisPulver

Quick video recap to highlight what's the latest and greatest in the markets. Oct 1 - Happy Q4 US Big Tech in "big red" today US Energy in "big green" today - thanks for a wild bid on USOIL China continues to rip "green" and it's playing catchup quickly US will have to deal with employment news, inflation news, earnings news, all before the US Election and Nov...

14:26

ChrisPulver

FED cut 50 bps today (as CME FED Watch Tool predicted), but it was one of the closer toss-up probabilities at 55% to 45% odds. Today's 50 bps leaves room for more to come and the market is anticipating 10 cuts in 11 FOMC meetings out through 2025. The market's resilience has been impressive, but until the market is satisfied with more "good news" on employment,...

21:42

ChrisPulver

All major indexes and broad market advancing today with the US CPI/PPI combo causing some big recoveries since the post Labor Day selloff. Momentum goes to the bulls for now until price proves otherwise. FED likely to cut 25 bps next week with more to come by end of year. It's amazing how quickly sentiment can shift like it did with Aug 1-5 and after, and again...

30:43

ChrisPulver

The "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week. 10 year average for September is -.9% 70 year average for September is -.7% We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI...

10:25

ChrisPulver

Tuesday - Bear Candle breaking support Wednesday - weak re-test of the support (now becoming resistance) Bearish pressure remains firm with key levels lower on the major indexes. Near-term bearish until price proves otherwise. Taking stops, protecting profits and managing hedges. JPY "unwinding" is also back on the radar. I'll be watching the JPY strength and...

16:46

ChrisPulver

Summer trading is officially done and the market will be news sensitive leading up to the big bad FOMC Rate Decision on September 18. August's monthly candle is a wild one with a massive wick to the south and the bulls pushed the SPY within a whisker of all-time highs, Dow to several all-time highs, Nasdaq into a nice bullish recovery posture, and Russell the...

20:38

ChrisPulver

A nice alignment comparing SPX, NDX, RUT with the Fed Funds Rate showing when the FED raises rates and cuts rates and how it impacts the indexes. 1995 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 1998 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 2001 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2007 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2019 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher (but after 30-40% COVID Crash) Nobody knows how this cycle will impact current...

27:04

ChrisPulver

Thanks for checking out the video today. It was a reasonably nice selloff today, led mostly by the Mag 7 stocks. All US Indexes were in red, Nasdaq taking the worst of it around -1.60% lower. Powell on tap for Friday with Day 2 at Jackson Hole. The market is oh so curious if the FED will cut 25 or 50 bps in September and we have plenty of news to digest prior to...

19:00

ChrisPulver

I reviewed an interesting study Tuesday about V bottoms. Over 20 years of data showing the average "V Bottom" takes nearly 1 year to come back and get into positive territory. The fact that all US Indexes and many stocks have done this in 10-15 trading trades is pretty remarkable. Will we more path of least resistance at all-time highs or will we see resistance...

22:03

ChrisPulver

It's as if the markets couldn't wait to open on Monday and continue what they've been doing for 9 of 11 trading days - push higher. S&P +.96% Nasdaq +1.31% Dow +.58% Russell 1.22% For a Monday, it was a pretty directional day. Wed-Fri is when the US news hits (FOMC Minutes, PMI, Jackson Hole, Powell Speech) so let's see if the party bus continues to rock until...

16:08

ChrisPulver

S&P pulled back 78% of the fall Nasdaq pulled back 61% of the fall Dow pulled back 78% of the fall IWM pulled back 50% of the fall Impressive rips for 2 weeks of trading for the "buy the dip" community. This week's direction was steady in futures, and gaps higher in indexes from opening to closing bell. I'm keeping the charts as clean and simple as possible....

23:36

ChrisPulver

Monday - UP Tuesday - UP Wednesday - UP Thursday - UP SPY has put together 2 weeks with 20+ points from low to high eclipsing the averaging 14/15 point average true range for the week - it really is wild stuff!!! I try to make some sense of everything today with an inverse cup & handle pattern on the SPY/SPX/ES levels. I dive into September/October seasonality...